«"Because of satellite radio, more affluent people are going to use that service, so we have a smaller piece of the pie to slice up with the people remaining, who are not so affluent," said Bob Pettit, general manager of WCBM, the Baltimore talk-radio station at 680 AM. "The younger people are going to the new technologies. Radio used to be a very effective way to reach people aged 18 to 34. Now, not so much." As a result, Pettit said, national advertisers are not turning to the old medium the way they once did, leaving the field to cheaper, and often local, ad buyers. In turn, the stations are obliged to charge less money because their demographic is poorer, he said, leaving the stations with less revenue.»

fonte: MADIGAN, Nick, «Radio may survive this, too», Baltimore Sun, August 26, 2007

Das poucas certezas que este relatório tem: «Analogue audiences will continue to decline especially among younger listeners as radio broadcasters adjust by offering a wider variety of content, higher availability on multiple platforms and through multiple standards. Radio listeners will become more demanding in terms of the variety of content they seek and ways of accessing it»

fonte: Public Radio in Europe, Conclusions and Outlook, EBU/UER, Junho 2007

«Countries with a significant investment in DAB and an installed base of consumer equipment will proceed with DAB. However, the emergence of new standards may create confusion and disrupt digital radio implementation in some countries as regulators and planners re-evaluate the potential of each technology. Enabling regulation is not yet in place in many countries. The rate of technology migrations will increase and users will become accustomed to shrinking product life cycles, multi-standard devices, and hybrid functionality. Without significant economic or technical obstacles, radio broadcasters have flexibility within the DAB family of standards to offer a combination of services. The key issue will be management of the installed base of receiving equipment. Multiple platforms will coexist. DAB and DRM technologies can be implemented in a complementary way.

Consensus of all key industry players is necessary to drive radio digitalisation: Government regulators, public service and commercial broadcasters, network operators, and automobile manufactures. Marketing and coordination at national and international levels has not been sufficient in many cases.»

fonte: Public Radio in Europe, Conclusions and Outlook, EBU/UER, Junho 2007, pág 1

«DAB transmission was widely considered as expensive and uneconomic especially for commercial and community stations, when the costs were compared to analogue transmission or to alternative digital broadcasting systems. - DAB also had problems with coverage. In the UK and Denmark, it had become obvious that community radio and small commercial stations were not suited to the existing coverage patterns of DAB multiplexes. All the Irish respondents agreed that DAB coverage would not be compatible with the needs of local radio stations»

fonte: Public Radio in Europe, Conclusions and Outlook, EBU/UER, Junho 2007, pág 3

Se não houver um canal/uma plataforma de distribuição (como o FM ou DAB) a rádio não existirá: 

«Without a dedicated transmission network, radio may risk being subsumed by other platforms dominated by television or other services. Radio broadcasts may lose prominence if offered as a supplementary service by aggregators controlling the menus, EPGs, and technical parameters of transmission.» 

fonte: Public Radio in Europe, Conclusions and Outlook, EBU/UER, Junho 2007, pág 2

Falta saber qual será esse modelo:

«Radio in the future is a multiplatform phenomenon. Radio will be available on a wide range of technical devices, from racks and hifi’s over stand alones and portables to handheld and pocket receivers. Everything digital - from television and computers to cell phones, mobiles and PDA’s, will be able to carry sound and thus radio along.• From one-standard to many-standards: There will be no single, winning standard for digital radio. DAB/DMB, DRM, DVB all have their strengths and weaknesses, which will make more of them co-exist. Manufacturers will secure dual, triple and eventually multi-standard radio sets for the consumers. And the consumers will not have to navigate through a jungle of frequencies or abbreviations, as the tuners will have easy-to-navigate browsers on displays with the station brands»  

fonte: «Public Radio in Europe, Conclusions and Outlook, EBU/UER, Junho 2007, pág 6

«Estamos asistiendo a uno de los cambios tecnológicos más sustanciales en materia de telecomunicaciones y radiodifusión en casi un siglo, la digitalización, pero de momento, y especialmente en el ámbito radiofónico, existe bastante confusión, muchos lugares comunes y una radio digital cuyo futuro sigue todavía bastante desdibujado. En buena parte, ello es lógico puesto que se necesitan unos 10-15 años, o incluso más (Paila, 2005:29) para conseguir que una nueva tecnología alcance un punto en el que pasa de ser utilizada tan sólo por los innovadores y los primeros usuarios (early adopters ) hasta que resulta imparable, lo cual podría suponer su presencia en el 20% del mercado masivo (Corneliussen, 2004:3).»

fonte: BONET, Montse, «La radio digital, estándares tecnológicos y plataformas de distribución», Portal de la Comunicación In-Com-UAB, Introducción

«Nadie puede asegurar qué sucederá en el futuro, pues la audiencia tiene mucho todavía por decir. La variedad de plataformas de distribución de audio que tan sólo hemos apuntado supera el ámbito de la tecnología y plantea interrogantes sobre los límites de la escucha radiofónica, los nuevos contenidos y las potenciales nuevas audiencias, para redundar en definitiva en la posibilidad de nuevas líneas de negocio. Los oyentes empiezan ya a tomar sus propias decisiones en cuando a programación y sobre su entorno de escucha (USADO), aún siendo evidente que los productores de esta industria cultural todavía mantienen el control sobre los contenidos. Sirva como ejemplo, entre otros, el podcasting, gracias al cual los individuos eligen contenidos, no emisoras, lo cual plantea ciertas dudas sobre las formas de identificación y diferenciación de empresas o el control de los contenidos»

fonte: BONET, Montse, «La radio digital, estándares tecnológicos y plataformas de distribución», Portal de la Comunicación In-Com-UAB, A modo de conclusión

ou

«(...) last ten years have been a period of rapid growth of the Internet and mobile communications, which has challenged not only the traditional ideas of radio broadcasting and audio delivery, but also those unique, new extensions for radio broadcasting which DAB was able to promise. Lately, the Internet and mobile phone networks have provided a basis for new nonbroadcast or hybrid audio services (e.g. Podcasting, Visual Radio)» (Ala-Fossi. 2005: 2)

«Hybrid systems are discussed here only very briefly. Visual Radio is Nokia’s architectural innovation, which combines traditional analog FM radio and synchronized visual GPRS data delivery via GSM network (Hedges 2005c). Motorola’s iRadio is another architectural innovation, which makes it possible to listen Internet radio recordings from mobile phone memory via car or home stereo (Klein 2005). In addition, there are some software innovations which aim at bringing podcasting services directly into mobile phones through wireless mobile networks. While Melodeo counts on downloading podcasts from the Internet directly to the phone memory, Pod2Mob software will instead stream the selected podcasts to an applet on the users cell phone (Melodeo 2005, Pod2Mob 2005)» (Ala-Fossi, 2005: 19)

«Internet radio has certain social strengths, because it is possible to create services even for very small and scattered groups all over the world without large initial investments. Although it has become the main delivery system for thousands of web-only radio operators and an important supplementary platform for practically all radio broadcasters, it has still problems with copyright  issues. When compared to broadcasting, perhaps the main economic disadvantage of Internet radio is that every new listener means more expenses for the program operator. This is why BBC is probably going to prevent foreign users to listen its domestic channels over the web. (Laven 1998, 6-8; Bagharib & Tan 2004, 2; Ala-Fossi 2005, 40-41; Colker 2005) Another disadvantage of Internet radio has been it's weak mobility and portability. While mobile phone approach may still be too expensive to use, a wireless broadband network with fixed rates can become a practical solution for listening live or streaming Internet radio outside of your home or office.» (Ala-Fossi, 2005: 23-24)

«My argument here is that at the moment we are still as far from the analog shutdown of radio as it was thought back in late 1990’s: it will take at least 10 to 15 years from the present day. Although the EU has recently proposed that TV broadcasting in its member states should be switched in to digital by 2012, there are at least two reasons, why the process with radio is probably going to take longer time (Hedges 2005a; EU 2005; IHT 2005; Coonan 2005). ¹ First of all, those countries (Germany, Netherlands, Norway) which already have set a date for the digital switchover of radio, have scheduled it to happen four to seven years after the supposed digital switchover of TV. (WorldDAB 2005b; Marcuslund 2005a; Marcuslund 2005b) This is probably a realistic approach. (...) The second reason is that probably none of the European countries will to be able to meet their official deadlines for the TV digital switchover. At least according to the Informa Telecom & Media’s recent report, this will be the case. The report predicts also that some countries, like Italy and Spain will not be able to shut down their analog television networks before 2020. (...)  It is more than likely that analog FM radio is an important part of the future of radio broadcasting at least 10 years from now. FM radio station is relatively inexpensive to build and operate, and this is why it suits well also for small-scale radio. The number of existing analogue FM receivers is huge, their price is low and the sound quality on FM is good enough for the majority of people. In addition, services on analog radio are usually free of direct charge and easy to use. (Ala-Fossi & Stavitsky 2003, 71; Ala-Fossi 2005, 33, 44-47; Coonan 2005)» (Ala-Fossi, 24-26)

Ala-Fossi recorre às categorias criadas por Henderson and Clark  (incremental, modular, architectural and radical innovations) para descrever o que está a acontecer à rádio [«Architectural Innovation: the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms», Administrative Science Quarterly 1990]

«Despite its obvious limitations, technology assessment approach offers us some very useful conceptual tools. Because all innovations resulting technological development are not similar, technology assessment categorizes them according to two main dimensions. First, how much the technologies in the new innovation differ from the existing technologies and second, how much the configuration of the technologies in the new innovation differs from the present configurations. In this way, all the innovations can be categorized in to four types. Incremental innovations are for example small improvements of the existing products, while modular innovation will mean that the innovation will totally change certain parts, but they can still be integrated to the original product. Architectural innovations are mostly about combining already existing elements in a new way, while radical innovation means simultaneous development of new technologies and creating new configurations or combinations of these technologies. (Mäkinen & Nokelainen 2003, 25-27) With a similar categorization it is possible to evaluate also the new technologies for digital audio delivery in relation to the traditional radio broadcasting and to each other.» (ALa-Fossi, 2005:3)

A autora espanhola Montse Bonet, a partir das notas de Ala Fossi, criou o seguinte quadro:

Contrariando a tendência mundial (pelo menos no ocidente...):

- 43,1% dos ouvintes de rádio em Portugal têm entre 15 e 34 anos

«"I've been in the radio biz for over 35 years -- radio was supposed to be dead by now," he [Edward C. Kiernan, general manager of Baltimore's top-rated talk-radio station WBAL, 1090 AM, and its FM counterpart, WIYY, known as 98 Rock] said, ascribing its supposed demise to the advent of television, to the fact that cigarette advertising was removed from the airwaves, to record players, cassette tape recorders, eight-track tapes and, more recently, compact discs. If none of these things killed radio, he suggested, then iPods and satellite radio won't either.» E a Internet?

fonte: MADIGAN, Nick, «Radio may survive this, too», Baltimore Sun, August 26, 2007

The People Meter, a pager-sized device that automatically registers what radio station survey participants are listening to, is already yielding more specific -- and, in some cases, surprising -- data. The results from the first two markets indicate that people flip among stations more frequently than they say, that men listen to significantly more radio than women and that employed people listen a lot more than people who don't work. While the diary system pointed to some of these findings, it typically missed how broad they are. In the markets that have switched to the electronic ratings, rock and classic rock rank higher than before, while hip-hop and other urban music generally don't stack up as well. Perhaps most important, radio stations typically pull in a bigger audience than they thought, but that audience spends less time listening to them.»

fonte: «New Way to Count Listeners Shakes Up Radio», Wall Street Journal, By SARAH MCBRIDE, September 6, 2007;

«Apple has unveiled new technology that enables US high definition radio listeners to "tag" songs that they hear on FM stations for subsequent purchase via iTunes. iTunes Tagging technology, which was developed by Apple in conjunction with iBiquity Digital and major US radio broadcasting groups, was unveiled across the US this week together with the latest iPods.  Apple vice president of iPod product marketing Greg Joswiak said: "When a song plays on your HD Radio that you like, a simple push of a button will tag it and later give you the chance to preview, purchase, and enjoy it with iTunes and your iPod." The US initiative follows a similar scheme in the UK put together by UBC Media. The Cliq service displays the tracks playing on the radio and allows consumers to buy them immediately. Cliq is available on new DAB radio sets and also via Java enabled mobile phones. UBC Media chief executive Simon Cole welcomed the introduction of the iPod tag service: "This is great news for us and for the digital radio industry globally. "Importantly, it confirms our very strong and long-held belief that radio has a huge part to play in the future of digital music sales and that those sales represent new revenue opportunities for radio". »

fonte: «Apple launches radio tagging system», Broadcastnow.com, Yvette Mackenzie, 07/09/07

Mas, atenção, é preciso que as estações emitam um código hertziano: «and Clear Channel has already announced that it will encode all its FM HD broadcasts for the service». E ha tambem que garante, como se lê na newsletter da Inside Radio de 06/09/07 que: «Polk's HD Radio connection with the iPod will require stations to encode their HD signals to allow consumers to use the "tagging" feature for buying music on iTunes. Inside Radio has learned eight radio groups have already committed to encoding. Insiders say this alliance between radio, receiver manufacturers and Apple puts radio on the forefront of music delivery and turns would-be competitors into collaborators»

Outra chamada de atenção: a tecnologia não permite a compra, mas apenas marcar determinadas músicas, que poderão ser compradas, quando se ligar o iPod ao computador (ou seja, depois). «Well, it's not exactly a "push-to-buy" function... it's more of a "push to 'bookmark,' so later, when you hook your iPod up to your computer, you're reminded of the songs you tagged, and then you can buy them through iTunes" service. In fact, the iPod itself is really only used to carry these "bookmarks" from the radio to the PC»

Já Mark Ramsey chama atenção para outra questão (com a tradicional ironia, quando fala de HD): «HD radio has been reduced to being a storefront for iTunes? So I listen to my HD radio, tag the songs I like, download them to my iPod, and listen to my iPod rather than my HD radio, right?And who makes the money in this transaction? The people who own the store, the people who license the music, or the station that tags the songs?»

A propósito da decisão da Apple de colaborar com as estações HD, eis as declarações de alguém com responsabilidade nas rádios dos EUA:

«Clear Channel President/CEO John Hogan said, "Apple has been a strong supporter of radio, previously making an FM tuner available for the iPod, and we view their support of HD digital radio as an enormous opportunity." Apple offers the iPod Radio Remote as an iPod accessory for .

Hogan continued, "With substantial gains in online and on-demand programming already under our belt, there should now be no doubt of radio's ability to constantly evolve and embrace new technology. The iPod is not a competitor to radio -- it is a collaborator in connecting with consumers on a continual basis."»

fonte: «Clear Channel Encodes For iTunes Song Sales Via HD Radio», Radio Ink, 07/09/07
 

Mark Ramsey: «I made the point more than a year ago that, as I put it, "people generally don't buy radios, they buy things that contain radios."»

The station announced the changes on-air Monday. Station GM Caryn Mathes stated it was “time to begin treating HD Radio multicasting as ‘real’ radio. HD Radio is becoming eminently accessible to the general consumer, and we believe it is the future of terrestrial radio.”»

fonte: «WAMU Multicasting Gets ‘Real’ With Planned HD3 Launch, Receiver Giveaways, Leslie Report/Radio World, by Leslie Stimson, 9.05.2007

Do relátório da eMarketeer Radio Trends:

«What's hurting traditional radio is its declining share of the media pie, in terms of time spent with media. Folks are listening to less radio as they spend more time on the web. As Macklin puts it in his report, “Traditional radio is losing its significance in people’s lives.". Yet radio still has a huge share, with a weekly cumulative audience of 282.8 million in the U.S., according to data from Bridge Ratings, and in fact some 90 percent of Americans still tune in to traditional radio each week. Further, radio is going through a whole set of changes that promise to widen its appeal, and many of those changes are occurring online. Indeed, Macklin believes that the key drivers in radio's future as an advertising medium will be station web sites and streaming internet audio. The number of traditional radio listeners is expected to remain relatively stable, at 274 million in 2015, but other areas are expected to grow rapidly. The audience for internet radio--simulcasts of traditional radio stations online and internet-only stations--is expected to grow from 72.0 million in 2007 to 187.3 million in 2015, according to Bridge Ratings» (fonte: «Brighter future for radio, despite it all, Media Life Magazine, By Heidi Dawley Sep 5, 2007)

 

«"As the number of Wi-Fi hot spots grow, so too do the possibilities of where they can be placed. No longer do they have to be in fixed locations such as coffee shops or libraries; planes, trains and automobiles are turning into wireless Internet access points. New technology WiMAX is expected to further accelerate adoption...
"Autonet Mobile Inc. builds the Wi-Fi box Mr. Dyer uses and also makes them available through Avis Budget Group Inc. car rentals. Autonet wants to eventually put Wi-Fi into every car... Amtrak is looking to provide coverage to its trains. AMR Corp.'s American Airlines plans to provide its passengers with Wi-Fi access by next year...
"Seen speeding the adoption of Internet access in vehicles is wireless technology WiMAX, which is similar to Wi-Fi but with longer range. Sprint and Clearwire Corp. are partnering to build a nationwide network.
"Sprint recently held a technology summit in which partner Nokia Corp. demonstrated the applications of WiMAX in a Ford Motor Co. Mustang fitted with Nokia N800 tablets embedded in the back of the car's front-row headrests, with clips of 'Terminator 2' and 'Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix' wirelessly streaming from a remote personal computer. While the demonstration used a Wi-Fi signal, Nokia said WiMAX would fill the gap down the line.
"'It represents how the in-vehicle experience will look in a year,' said Claudine Goldsmith, head of marketing for Nokia's U.S. automotive group. She noted that even at 70 miles an hour, the car could maintain a steady connection to the Web."»

fonte: «Those on the Go Get to Go Online», WSJ, By Roger Cheng, 04,09/07

«O iAudio D2 da Cowon é o primeiro mini rádio DAB do mundo. Apesar de ter o tamanho de uma caixa de fósforos, o iAudio D2 tem um tuner DAB full band III, além de rádio FM. Ele também toca músicas em formatos e toca vídeos MP4 e XviD com a sua tela touchscreen de 2.5?. O iAudio D2 vem com 4 GB ou 8 GB de capacidade, e se isto for pouco para você, ele também tem um slot para cartões SD HC. Segundo a Cowon, a bateria dura até 52 horas tocando arquivos MP3, 10 horas de vídeos e 12 horas escutando rádio DAB. A versão com 4 GB está à venda na Advanced MP3 Players da Inglaterra por £169.99 ou £189.99 com um cartão SD de 4 GB. E se você preferir, a Cowon também tem uma versão do D2 sem a funcionalidade de rádio DAB. (fonte: «O Rádio DAB de Bolso», IPJornal, 04/09/07) 

«(...) Tomorrow’s consumer will certainly be different than yesterday’s, and even the day before that. The key to figuring out the future of technology trends, according to NBC Universal president of research and media development Alan Wurtzel, consumers want the media that they grew up with. “The consumer is behaving a little differently than they ever did before. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but things are getting a little crazy out there,” he said at the CTAM Summit here. A large reason for this is the emergence of generation Y (ages 15-28) into the consumer market and their acceptance of new technology.» ( fonte: «NBC U Research Head: Generation Y Taking Over», By Jason Braff -- Multichannel News, 7/26/2007)

«MediaPost has detailed analysis of several analysts' projection for Internet radio revenue, which could someday rival terrestrial radio. Online advertising is the fastest growing segment for newspapers and radio alike, growing by 16 percent during the first quarter of the year. Advertising via online radio has several advantages over terrestrial: it's interactive to spur purchases or other actions, it adds a visual element (banners etc.) to compliment the audio messaging, and it can be used to sell music.
Internet radio should be the music industry's best friend, but instead the two groups are constantly sparring. Radio stations are offering "click to buy" options for recently heard tracks to encourage sales, but the copyright holders group is doing everything it can to prevent the growth of online radio. Sooner or later the music industry will realize that Internet radio can generate much more revenue through advertising and direct sales than iTunes ever could and will play nice» (fonte: «», John Gartner, Marketingshift, 7/09/07)

Há, pelo menos relativamente aos jornais, quem pense que não (que caíriam de qualquer forma):

«The dark truth for newspapers is that their sales would be in serious decline even if Tim Berners-lee had never invented the internet and Metro was still an idea on the whiteboard. As the Telegraph website's Burton says: "No one has shown me evidence that the internet is making us lose print sales." And those newspapers that enthusiastically embraced free web content early on, such as The Guardian, find their combined web and print circulations in a healthier position than had they continued only to force-feed readers with slabs of Times New Roman. The Guardian's circulation would have fallen far further if it hadn't built up brand loyalty among students with its cluster of excellent sites» (Rob Blackhurst , The freeloading generation, British Journalism Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, 57 (2005))
 

Nos EUA há quem pense que sim:

«Lawmakers in a dozen states are trying to ban drivers from using video games, computers and fax machines in cars in a new wave of driver-distraction legislation. Since January, states including Texas, New York and Arizona have considered bills that would limit the use of car electronics that go far beyond cellphones, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Most bills would require violators to pay fines ranging from to 0. So far, only one of this year's proposals has been enacted — in Tennessee. States also are trying to track how much of a threat electronic gadgets such as iPods and front-seat movie screens pose to safety. Statistics are scarce because it's difficult for police to determine whether an accident was caused by a distraction in the car, but legislators say electronics clearly are grabbing drivers' attention. "I got in a cab and the cabdriver was watching the fights on a TV he had in the front seat," says New York state Sen. Carl Marcellino, whose bill to prohibit drivers' use of display-generating electronics passed unanimously in the state Senate June 21. "Cars are becoming an extension of the workplace and an extension of the home."» (fonte: «New hazard: Driving while wired», By Christina Crapanzano, USA TODAY, 05/07/07)

«Os resultados do estudo Netpanel da Marktest mostram que o domínio hi5.com foi responsável por 17% de todas as páginas visualizadas em Agosto pelos internautas nacionais, que acederam a partir de suas casas. As férias também servem para encontrar amigos na net… De acordo com os resultados do estudo Netpanel da Marktest, o domínio hi5.com foi o que em Agosto mais aumentou em páginas visitadas a partir do lar, crescendo duas vezes e meia face ao mês anterior. Este domínio foi responsável por 17% do total de páginas visualizadas durante o mês, o que constitui um valor muito significativo. »

fonte: «Hi5 representa 17% das páginas visualizadas em Agosto a partir do lar», Marktest.com, 11 de Setembro de 2007

«That's the word from Pandora's founder, Tim Westergren. Pandora is a web radio service that learns what you like as you listen more. Westergren was interviewed at dailytech.com by Tom Corelis: "The new rates would bankrupt us, along with every other webcaster in currently in operation. Without a doubt, for us it’s a really misguided decision...These rates essentially don’t rely on the understanding of the economics of web radio."»

fonte. «Pandora Founder: New Webcasting Royalty Rates "Would Bankrupt Us"», RadioABout.com

«Nearly 75% of all adults log onto the Internet and nearly 1 in 5 (18%) of online users visit a radio website over the period of a month. A profile of radio website visitors shows that well educated, upper income, white collar workers in addition to younger people tend to be more likely to visit radio websites. These findings come from a recently released telephone study of 118,211 randomly selected adults conducted by The Media Audit between January 2006 and April 2007 in 88 markets across the nation.

fonte: «One in 5 Internet users visit a radio website» RBR, Carnegie, Setembro 07

Hey, wait a minute. A TV company building LOCAL music sites ? Promoting ‘Battle of the Bands’ ? I thought local Radio stations should own this space ? Especially local Rock stations that target 18-34 and 18-49 demos. This should be a major wake-up call to local Radio.What FOX is doing is just another example of the fast moving, digital land grab at the local level. Team Rupert sees that Radio is not taking full advantage of their local powers of driving new online businesses. Especially with music. (...)»

fonte: «FOX Local Music sites, Philly Rock Wars, WYSP», Mel Taylor, September 13th, 2007

A grande questão é que, com isto, se antecipa uma das grandes tendências: para os públicos, para os novos públicos?, não há reconhecimento das características dos meios clássicos: ou seja, está na net e ponto final.Vem de uma coisa chamada televisão? E depois? Vem de um jornal? Mas não está na net? Então é net. (a questão é que, para competir na net, a rádio devia potenciar as suas maisvalias e os terrenos que conhece melhor e não o está a fazer)

«"The long term prospects for our business look very bright if, and only if, we aggressively seize on the opportunities that new technology and changing market needs are pointing out to us," says Greater Media CEO Peter Smyth. He predicts radio will be the "center point of a web of communication channels" in the coming decade, as listeners turn to radio for recommendations, resources and reflections of their city.» fonte: SAXE, Frank, "Looking towards radio's long-term future", Inside Radio, NAB Radio Show, Setembro 07, pag 6

«"Radio is going to face an increasingly broad competitive environment," says iBiquity CEO Bob Struble. "The days of radio having a monopoly position in the dashboard and at the beach are gone forever. Competition is only going to get more pronounced. It will continue and accelerate – that’s reality." points to new uses for mobile phones, broadband, WiFi and WiMax, plus ultra-mobile PCs that will blend the cell phone with the laptop.» fonte: SAXE, Frank, "Looking towards radio's long-term future", Inside Radio, NAB Radio Show, Setembro 07, pag 7

«The Media Audit’s Phillip Beswick says "Metamorphosis is a fit word to describe what radio is going through right now and the decade to come." Not just from new media audio distribution channels, but also from new competition for radio’s advertising revenue. Beswick says radio has attracted people that thrive on competition. But perhaps more importantly, he thinks consolidation into well-financed corporations will help radio "take on the significant challenges inherent with metamorphosis."

fonte: SAXE, Frank, "", Inside Radio, NAB Radio Show, Setembro 07, pag 8

A grande questão é que, com exemplos destes, se antecipa uma das grandes tendências futuras: para os públicos, para os novos públicos?, não há reconhecimento das características dos meios clássicos (os novos não chegarão a saber, os outros perderão com o tempo os limites): ou seja, está na net e ponto final. Vem de uma coisa chamada televisão? E depois? Vem de um jornal? Mas não está na net?! Então é net (já não é rádio, jornal ou televisão). (a questão é que, para competir na net, a rádio devia potenciar as suas mais valias e os terrenos que conhece melhor e não o está a fazer e estes exemplos não o demonstram)

Doug Hall: «In the past few years alone the number of alternativas to faithful old radio has exploded. Today magical, invisible audio can meet your ears via the Internet, over your cell phone, via Satellite, through your mp3 player, and so on. For much of its history radio has owned the only route to your ears. That kind of responsibility is a freedom and a curse. A freedom because it allows the creation of audio wonders great and small. A curse because the absence of competition from alternate technologies has a way of promoting a fat and happy settling, a bloated behemoth of an industry which knows how to do what it has always done, but not what it needs to do next. The status quo perpetuates nothing so much as more status quo. In the years to come radio will experience the most profound challenges to its status quo ever. We are entering a time where smart thinking, novel ideas, and profound innovacion will spell the difference between relevance for future generations and quaint nostalgic obsolescence.» (Ramsey, 2005: 1) 

«A nationwide poll by American Media Services finds 63% of American adults listen to the radio one or more times a day. The car also remains king — with 74% of Americans saying they turn on the radio when they get into their car. Only 11% say they listen to satellite radio. What would get people to listen to more radio? The poll says more music and fewer commercials.»

fonte: «Despite naysayers, radio remains pretty popular», Inside Radio, 20/9/07

«September 20, 2007: Sixty-three percent of American adults listen to the radio every day, says a new survey from American Media Services. And the number among 25-34 adults is even stronger: 79 percent tune in to radio at least once a day.

Seventy-two percent of Americans say they're listening to the radio as much or more now than they did five years ago, and they're still tuning in in the car: 74 percent of Americans turn on the radio when they get in the car, including 72 percent of 18-24 adults and 80 percent of 25-34s.

The phone survey of 1,017 adults, conducted earlier this month, found satellite radio subscriptions steady at about 11 percent -- but 89 percent of respondents said they are unlikely to subscribe to satellite radio in the next 12 months.»

fonte: «Poll: Radio Listening Is Staying Stable», Radio Ink, 20/09/07 

«Half the UK population will have access to to DAB digital radio in two and a half years time. That's the news from the Digital Radio Development Bureau, with a 58% penetration expected by 2011.
The DRDB’s new five-year forecast puts household penetration at 21% by the end of 2007, and 30% by the end of 2008, rising to 40% in 2009, 50% in 2010, and 58.5% by the end of 2011.
DAB digital radio set sales are expected to realise 17% growth in 2007, with more than two million units sold at a value of £170 million. Growth rises to 26% in 2008 with 2.6 million units sold at a value of £200 million. This delivers a cumulative forecast of approximately 9.2 million products sold by the end of 2008, with DAB products commanding 28% of the overall market by volume and 35% by value in 2008.
There are indications from many sources – Rajar, Ofcom, BBC, RadioCentre – that the traditional face of radio listening is changing. This is impacting significantly on the overall radio set sales market (analogue and DAB) with certain form factors, such as boomboxes, audio systems and personals, in decline, while others, such as MP3 players and docking stations (with radio included) are on the rise.
Says DRDB chief executive, Ian Dickens: “Already we are starting to see DAB digital radio appear in some of these new form factors, and while it is important to continue to see successful growth in traditional radio products, DAB’s longer-term future lies in the penetration of these new products, along with in-car and mobile phones. Over the coming months, the DRDB will be changing its shape and focus to ensure that radio moves swiftly down this road.”»

fonte: «DAB to reach 50% by 2010», Radiotoday.com, 24/9/07

«HD Radio is now available nationwide as a dealer-installed option on nearly every 2008 Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury vehicle, making Ford Motor Co. the first U.S. automaker to commit to HD Radio. Dealers are also offering HD installation in most used and currently owned 2005, 2006, and 2007 vehicles.
"Drivers have always had a love affair with their car radios," said Kim Irwin, Manager/Vehicle Personalization & Accessories for Ford's Customer Service Division. "HD Radio offers our dealers a triple threat: It differentiates their offerings from other brands, it lets them upgrade customer entertainment systems in a unique way, and it lets buyers of recent pre-owned vehicles, as well as current vehicle owners, share completely in the benefits. This is the kind of program that our dealers love to see."
Ford will support the HD Radio launch with a 13-week, multimillion-dollar radio campaign in partnership with the HD Radio Digital Alliance. The commercials are set to start airing September 26 on about 700 radio stations in 100 markets.
BMW in 2005 began offering HD Radio as a factory-installed option with its 2006 model-year vehicles.»

fonte: «Ford Now Offering HD Radio», Radio Ink, 26/9/07

«Young people's opinion of radio -- top-of-mind for Radio Show attendees -- was particularly illuminating. There's a "deep dive" session scheduled for Thursday, but the initial presentation showed that radio is not prevalent in young people's homes. Rather, in-car is the primary location for radio listening, with iPods beginning to encroach. It was clear that some young people still use and love radio, but there are many lessons for radio broadcasters to learn from how 18-28-year-olds use media on the whole»

fonte: «Report Reveals Young Americans' Media Habits», Radio Ink, 27/9/07

As comunidades virtuais de  Howard Rheingold: «grupos sociales que emergen de la Red cuando suficiente gente participa en discusiones públicas durante un cierto tiempo, con los sentimientos necesarios, para formar redes de relaciones personales en el ciberespacio” (RHEINGOLD, Howard (1998): Virtual Communitie. http://www.rheingold.com/vc/book)

contexto:

«Cada vez es más frecuente que los individuos se integren en comunidades e intercambien experiencias, conocimientos e ideas a través de una relación interpersonal virtual (...) Se forman, en definitiva, una serie de redes sociales virtuales, cuyos miembros poseen intereses compartidos y unas características comunes, son muy activos y participativos, interesados y críticos, y generan una gran cantidad de contenido y comparte conocimiento relevante de un modo libre y públicamente accesible en la Internet que rastrean los principales robots de búsqueda. Una de las más radicales reformas en este tercer grupo de doctrinas teóricas acerca de la organización replantea su sentido y misión vinculada o incluso dependiente de la información y de las comunicaciones que genera (Open Business u Open Projects en terminología de Rheingold). Asistimos a una profunda metamorfosis que afectará completamente a las organizaciones en su estructura, así como en personas que habitualmente no forman parte de la cúspide de la organización pero que se convierten en líderes por sus capacidades y conocimientos. Lo más destacable es que el éxito de la organización del futuro dependerá de “una capacidad colectiva” en lugar de “actos aislados de personas independientes” (Nadler y Tushman, 2006: 183). La comunicación se traslada a las nuevas tecnologías y se estructuran canales internos en la organización tanto para gestionar las relaciones entre empleados, como sus redes comunicativas en las que nacerán los nuevos y temporales "proyectos abiertos" (Martín Martín, 1998: 19). (60-61)

«La innovación tecnológica afecta, gracias a la coalición de la informática y las telecomunicaciones, no sólo a la capacidad de producción y a la rapidez y calidad de la información, sino que supone un rediseño de la forma de trabajar y un replanteamiento de las relaciones personales (laborales) en las organizaciones. La organización tradicional, jerárquica y burocrática, que tenía su representación gráfica en el organigrama, está siendo sustituida por otra más real, no tan jerárquica, basada en las relaciones interpersonales y cuya representación gráfica refleja el flujo de información que se genera en ella, y adopta la forma de red. Es decir, “la organización es concebida como una red de relaciones y de contactos (de comunicación, en suma) entre personas y grupos de trabajo, que sustituye a la jerarquía para identificar y compartir los conocimientos entre todos los integrantes de la empresa” (Elías y Mascary, 2003: 35)» (73)