Quanto tempo o novo meio levará a impor-se?

«However, the time-lag between invention and mass media application (Marvin, 1988) may be relatively long (e.g. ‘wireless’ took about 25 years to become ‘radio’;» Lehman, 2004: 712.

«‘Wireless radio’ started off as a minor role-player, mainlyfor land–sea communication. Only after some 20 years did its real mass nature emerge.» Lehman, 2004: 713.

«What are the reasons for the fast growth of a new medium? Culture (that is, openness to novelty), cost–benefit utility (‘bang for the buck’), userfriendliness (‘human–machine interface’), and a nation’s technological infrastructure (human and physical), are all critical factors. Also, the level of inter-medium interactivity (Mahler and Rogers, 1999), for if the medium can be utilized usefully only in conjunction with someone else’s appliance (say, a videophone), that will retard diffusion as each consumer waits for others to buy it first – until a critical mass is attained (Marwell and Oliver, 1993). However, the most important factor is social need and readiness. Without the proper communications and social conditions, new media can wait for decades to realise their potential. (715)

«How will older media adapt to the maturing internet? Most of the older media will survive in somewhat changed form in the internet age – with a few caveats. First, it is not contradictory to predict that most of the older media will continue to exist, albeit within the internet’s underlying metamedium infrastructure. While content and functions will remain recognizable, their modes of transmission/distribution will change drastically. Ultimately, newspapers will become exclusively electronic (Ries and Ries, 2000), delivered through the internet to new media appliances (PDA, ebook, tablet computers)» (724)

«Will any of the older media disappear completely (stage 5c)? To use a digital metaphor: yes, but mainly through morphing into something else. We have hinted already that the ‘newspaper’ will not exist in a few decades – in its present format. However, if it gravitates onto the web and does not disintegrate under the centrifugal force of do-it-yourself news and text/ photo weblogging, it might well survive but in quite a different form. Just as the typewriter became the computer keyboard, so too might older media ‘appliances’ become obsolete but continue to live through their functions.» 725