«"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." By Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future.»
«In other words, although we expect tomorrow to arrive in a burst of science-fiction flashiness, it often takes longer to arrive. And when it finally does, the real impact of the change is likely to exceed our initial expectations. Consider where we stand in 2005: Much of what we see happening online today is the long-run, large-scale result of changes that many people dismissed only a few years ago. Amid the great tidal wave of innovation in the 1990s, the most interesting story was the birth of new business models like Amazon, eBay, and Google. But that's clear only in hindsight. The innovative fantasies of the dotcom era did bear fruit, but it took a lot longer--a decade, not five years. (See "Everything Old Is New Again," page 92.) So where will the business world be in, say, 2008? I look for small but telling hints. In my 15-year-old son Benjamin's room, for example, he's uploading a lightsaber duel video he made for a Star Wars fan competition. A digital videocamera and a Mac, and suddenly he becomes Schwartz Productions. Meanwhile, Al Gore's new cable-television venture, Current TV, aims to be almost entirely viewer-produced. Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce.com, plans to allow his company's users to develop and share new software applications using simple programming tools. The distinction between consumer and producer, server and served, is beginning to fade, and forward-looking companies understand that making money with your customers is even better than making money from them. (See "Companies Tap Into Consumer Passion," page 84.)»
It echoes a quote by Joseph Licklider that says: "A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years," which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, "Libraries of the Future," MIT Press, 1965 (
Amara, Roy "The Futures Field", Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, 1980.?
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