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«Analyst sees 2006 as tough year for radio
The quarterly round of radio company conference calls is complete, and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes didn’t find much that sounded encouraging for 2006. "Subpar fundamentals and uncompelling valuations keep us on radio’s sidelines, as stronger pricing power is needed to lift revenue growth, investor perception, and valuations. Of terrestrial radio operators, we rate only Clear Channel outperform, on superior fundamentals and discount valuation," he told investors. Wienkes sees five challenges facing radio in 2006. After Clear Channel’s Less is More initiative cut inventories over the course of 2005 - - Wienkes thinks by 1% industry-wide - - he expects overall spotloads to be flat in 2006. With increasing competition from iPods and other "new media" options, he’s looking for a 2% audience erosion this year. Given radio’s "anemic revenue growth," the analyst thinks pricing increases will be held to 3% in 2006. On the M&A front, he says to look for only a few private groups to sell - - with the obvious big exception of Univision. Radio valuations on Wall Street, Wienkes says, "seem fair, but not compelling, and they lack visible catalysts." Noting that the current consensus of Wall Street analysts is that radio revenues will grow 2% this year, the Goldman Sachs analyst thinks even that is too high. He’s looking for only 1%.»
The quarterly round of radio company conference calls is complete, and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes didn’t find much that sounded encouraging for 2006. "Subpar fundamentals and uncompelling valuations keep us on radio’s sidelines, as stronger pricing power is needed to lift revenue growth, investor perception, and valuations. Of terrestrial radio operators, we rate only Clear Channel outperform, on superior fundamentals and discount valuation," he told investors. Wienkes sees five challenges facing radio in 2006. After Clear Channel’s Less is More initiative cut inventories over the course of 2005 - - Wienkes thinks by 1% industry-wide - - he expects overall spotloads to be flat in 2006. With increasing competition from iPods and other "new media" options, he’s looking for a 2% audience erosion this year. Given radio’s "anemic revenue growth," the analyst thinks pricing increases will be held to 3% in 2006. On the M&A front, he says to look for only a few private groups to sell - - with the obvious big exception of Univision. Radio valuations on Wall Street, Wienkes says, "seem fair, but not compelling, and they lack visible catalysts." Noting that the current consensus of Wall Street analysts is that radio revenues will grow 2% this year, the Goldman Sachs analyst thinks even that is too high. He’s looking for only 1%.»
fonte: RBR Newsletter, Volume 23, Issue 52, Jim Carnegie, 15/3/06)
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