Previsões de perda no Canadá

«Conventional radio stations are losing their grip on the iPod generation as younger listeners shift to new technology, such as MP3 players, satellite radio and the emerging world of music-playing cellphones, the industry is warning Ottawa.In a lengthy document submitted to the federal broadcast regulator yesterday, the industry paints a bleak picture for itself as new technology permeates its market, eroding audiences and eating away at advertising revenue.Falling listenership among teenagers has become a particular concern for the industry, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters (CAB) said in its submission to a sweeping review of the sector being conducted in Ottawa."It is generally agreed that teens have abandoned conventional radio in favour of other audio platforms including peer-to-peer file sharing, music downloading and iPods," says the CAB, which represents Canada's radio companies."The key question this raises is whether today's teens can ever be repatriated to conventional radio." (...) Industry data on declining radio audiences are among the most surprising figures contained in the document. Under the group's worst-case scenario, listenership could fall 16.1 per cent over the next 10 years, causing a 14.5-per-cent drop in advertising revenue. The sector's most optimistic view predicts a 9.6-per-cent drop in listeners during that time, resulting in a 4.8-per-cent decline in revenue.If the industry saw a decline of that proportion last year, it would have cost $188.5-million in advertising revenue, the CAB said. (...) "We are facing an unprecedented level of competition." Mr. Goldstein said in an interview, adding that CHUM is very conscious of the industry's technological changes.  He said achieving "regulatory certainty" from the CRTC is more important. Several broadcasters are concerned that rivals, such as satellite radio, are not bound by the same regulations as conventional radio.The CAB says the fastest erosion of conventional radio listenership is coming in the 12-17 age demographic. (...)

(«Radio feels heat from iPod generation», Globe and Mail, SIMON TUCK, GRANT ROBERTSON, March 16, 2006)