5.2 Satélite

prejuizos na rádio satélite: as pessoas não querem pagar?

«XM's first quarter numbers are out, and what do you know?  Its losses widened to nearly 6 percent, even though revenue is up.  For the quarter, XM hemorrhaged $129 million, and their customer acquisition costs rose to $73 a subscriber (up from $65 last year)» (Jacoblog). Mas para quê pagar quando «According to data released by Digital Music News and media tracking firm BigChampagne, one-third of all PCs worldwide have LimeWire installed. For those who are among the other two-thirds, LimeWire is the top P2P file sharing software - the iTunesitunes-overtakes-wal-mart-in-music-sales Apr-4-2008 of "stealing" music so to speak. Usage comes in at exactly 36.4% of all PCs according to the survey, and of course its the target of a multi-year RIAA lawsuit (no doubt a side effect of its popularity)».

 

O que pode fazer a rádio via satelite nos EUA

«Abrams [Lee Abrams, director da XM] wants to capture the spirit and rebellion of 1950s and '60s radio, but keep it in the controlled context of the '80s and '90s corporate environment. (...) Satellite radio is everything radio has become in the past twenty years - on steroids.» (Fisher, 2007: 302-303) 

A guerra do satélite (EUA) versus rádio hertziana

Mel Karmazin, presidente da Sirius: «Arbitron says that XM and Sirius together represent 4 percent of the radio listening market. It's bizarre for me to think that anybody could think that in this whole area of audio entertainment there isn't plenty of competition, and new competition coming every day. Not only do we compete with all of the radio stations that exist, we also compete with all of the other alternatives that have come along since we've gotten our license. We currently compete with free [radio].

You're listening to this boring AM and FM radio that's around. And one day, you want satellite radio, or you buy a car that has satellite radio, and after a trial period you decide you don't want to have satellite radio, and then you go back to free. So when we compete with free, we're more apt to get a subscriber at $6.99 than at $12.95. So when you're a company that has lost all of this money, and we are continuing to lose money, the ability to reduce prices -- which is what we would like to do -- doesn't happen.»

fonte: «A conversation with Mel Karmazin, CEO of Sirius Satellite Radio», Chicago Tribune, November 9, 2007

A rádio via satélite (EUA) é igual à hertziana?

Esta análise mostra que, em certos canais, rádio hertziana e rádio via satélite são mais do mesmo (no que toca a passar sempre as mesmas músicas). Há, até, quem diga que: «their channels sound very much like terrestrial radio (including inane commentary by mediocre DJs), which is a good reason to cancel the subscription and continue to listen to free over the air radio»

40% dos novos carros (EUA) têm recepção satélite

«WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Aug. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Nearly 40 percent of consumers report having satellite radio capability in their new-vehicle's audio system-marking a considerable increase from 26 percent the previous year, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2007 Multimedia Quality and Satisfaction Study(SM) released today. Additionally, 94 percent of owners indicate that their satellite radio is factory or dealer installed-increasing from 92 percent in 2006. "Buyers want the latest technologies included in their new vehicle's audio system, and the increase in market penetration is a reflection of auto manufacturers' response to consumer demand," said Allison LaDuc, senior research manager of automotive product quality at J.D. Power and Associates. "New and redesigned vehicles-particularly those within the luxury segment-are increasingly being equipped with the latest multimedia features, including satellite radio, MP3/auxiliary output and navigation systems. Market penetration for these audio features will likely increase as time goes on."»

fonte: «J.D. Power and Associates Reports: Market Penetration for Satellite Radio Increases as Consumers Demand High-Tech Multimedia Features in Their New Vehicles», J. D. Power and Associates, 09/08/07

Desilusão com o satélite (EUA)

«The biggest problem for satellite radio is that it is morphing into terrestrial radio, albeit without the commercials. Let me list some of the reasons I see satellite radio failing.

• Limited playlists.
• Annoying DJs.
• Lousy reception.

You would think most of those would apply to any terrestrial radio station run by Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU), but they're symptoms of the problem with satellite radio.

Play it again, Sam. And again and again.
I definitely don't miss the insipid commercials I used to find on regular radio, but with 24 hours of airtime to fill up, you'd think the satellite companies could maybe mix up the playlists once in a while. How many times can Sirius' rock station Octane play Hinder's "Lips of an Angel"? And I think there's some Carpenters song played every 12 minutes on its Moving Easy band.

I listen to just a handful of stations on Sirius, and believe me: You can just about set your watch to when a particular song is going to come on. Can't they play some of the lesser-known songs by the artists, just for variety? While I have a Sirius radio, the same failings apply to XM. Repetitive songs seem to be an industry-wide issue that I thought satellite radio would resolve. (...)»

fonte: the Motley Fool, Why Satellite Radio Will Fail, By Rich Duprey, May 2, 2007

Satélite arrefece (EUA)

«The results of a new web poll survey, conducted by Rock radio consultants Jacobs Media, consisting of over 25,000 respondents from 69 Rock-formatted stations from all over the U.S., shows that satellite radio subscribership has not changed since last year’s survey, despite extensive marketing throughout 2006. "While satellite radio continues to be a hot topic of conversation, growth for both XM and Sirius appears to have greatly slowed," Jacobs Media President Fred Jacobs comments. "Our findings also show that potential interest among non-subscribers has also diminished from our survey last year." From the 2006 to 2007 studies, the numbers are essentially unchanged – about 12% of Rockers subscribe to XM, Sirius, or both services. Men and 30-39 year-olds are most apt to be satellite radio customers.Among those who have not bought either service, only 9% say they are very likely to subscribe to XM or Sirius, with the latter having a slight edge. This is down from 12% in the 2006 study.»

fonte: «AMONG ROCKERS, SATELLITE RADIO GROWTH HAS STALLED», Jacobsmedia.com, 20/03/07

Indústria radiofónica não quer fusaõ no satélite

«Former US attorney general John Ashcroft is now rallying against the proposed merger between Sirius and XM, though onlookers are questioning his motivations.  Ashcroft was recently hired by the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) to battle against the tie-up, part of a larger effort by the terrestrial radio group to dissuade merger approval.  In a letter to current attorney general Alberto Gonzales, Ashcroft pointed to a dangerous merger that "reduces the number of competitors from two to one," and warned that the plan "raises most serious competition concerns."  In the attack, Ashcroft also likened the proposed marriage to the unsuccessful merger attempt between satellite television providers DirecTV and EchoStar, a rejection that will continue to hover over the ongoing review process» (Digital Music News, 4/03/07, Ashcroft Jumps Into Radio Battle, Joins Terrestrial Camp)

Mais:

BusinessWeek "Ashcroft attacks Sirius-XM deal"

Wall Street Journal "XM: Ashcroft Offered Services To XM Before Being Hired By NAB"

Audiências de rádio via satélite (EUA) valem 3,4%

«The sum of all listening to satellite channels mentioned by the half million diarykeepers in the Arbitron Fall 2006 survey totaled 3.4 percent of credited quarter-hours.
The Fall 2006 survey was the first in which new instructions were provided in the diary, asking respondents to indicate their listening to satellite and Internet radio in addition to AM/FM radio. Respondents mentioned 297 separate satellite radio channels during the Fall 2006 survey.
The analysis also showed that satellite listeners are heavy listeners to radio in general, including AM/FM radio. Satellite listeners spent an average of 33 hours a week with radio compared with the typical listener, who listened approximately 19 hours a week to radio. Also, people who listened to satellite spent more time with AM/FM radio (14 hours) than they did with satellite radio (10 hours 45 minutes) or Internet (8 hours 15 minutes). »

fonte: «Arbitron: Satellite Radio Accounts For 3.4% Of All Radio Listening», radio Ink, 01/03/07

 Fred Jacobs comenta: «As you have no doubt read by now, satellite radio's overall share falls in at a 3.4 level.  Divide that among all the different satellite channels mentioned, and their average "station" cruises in at .009 share.  The most-listened to sat channel (wonder which one that might be?) roared in at a .2. Not exactly like the dream advertising platform.  And it certainly reinforces the notion that a merger may be the only way to save both companies from overinvesting in programming, at the expense of sales (and I'm a programming guy).  As budgets become tighter - especially among younger consumers - and iPod connectivity (and eventually, the Internet) becomes ubiquitous in vehicles, Wall Street will continue to question the model.  As we continually hear from our focus groups and our tech polls, listeners continue to push back at the notion of paying for radio.»

XM e Sirius fundem-se (XSirius?)

«WASHINGTON - A Sirius Satellite Radio e a XM Satellite Radio, as duas principais rádios por satélite dos Estados Unidos, decidiram se unir, informaram hoje ambas as emissoras em um comunicado conjunto. As duas companhias explicaram que Mel Karzamin, executivo-chefe da Sirius, será o principal responsável pela companhia que nascerá da fusão. (...) A aprovação definitiva da fusão dependerá das autoridades de concorrência e anti-monopólio americanas. O comunicado conjunto não especifica o nome da nova empresa e o conselho de administração da mesma passará a ter 12 membros, entre eles Parsons, Karmazin, quatro diretores independentes nomeados por cada companhia e um representante da General Motors e da Honda. Ambas as empresas automobilísticas tem um acordo exclusivo com as duas emissoras de rádio. (...) "A companhia resultante se beneficiará de uma equipe altamente qualificada, com ampla experiência na indústria radiofônica", segundo a nota conjunta divulgada hoje.»

«Laws prohibiting the two to combine have been in place since each were granted licenses about a decade ago, in effect creating a government-mandated duopoly because regulators had no intention of allowing other sat-radio operators to spring up in the U.S. Nevertheless, laws can be tweaked to grant permission for the two money-losing companies to merge, and that has competitors nervous.
Dennis Wharton, an executive vp with the National Association of Broadcasters, which represents traditional radio, said he'd be "shocked if federal regulators permitted a merger of XM and Sirius."
Others aren't so certain. Barton Crockett, an analyst with JP Morgan Securities, upgraded shares of XM and Sirius last month because of persistent and credible rumors that the two might "attempt a merger this year, with regulator approval a tossup."
Experts have been saying for months that approval of a combined XM-Sirius depends on how the FCC and anti-competition regulators view the industry. If considered broadly, with digital music players and the Internet thought of as competition, then approval ought to be granted. However, if the government sees competition for XM and Sirius stemming only from each other and from free radio, then approval isn't likely.» (fonte: Sat radio rivals unveil merger agreement, By Paul Bond, Feb 20, 2007, Hollywood Reporter)

Fred Jacobs: (20/02/07)«Top 10 reasons why an XM-Sirius merger sounds like a bad idea:

1.  $19.99/month

2.  Since when did the government reward failure?

3.  Does this mean that the FCC will completely de-regulate radio now?

4.  Howard gets wealthier because the stock goes up

5.  $25.99/month

6.  Voice-tracked music channels

7.  18 units/hour on the music channels

8.  How come my (Sirius/XM) receiver can't pick up my (Sirius/XM) signal?

9.  If the FCC will approve this merger, they'll probably approve local traffic and weather (wait, they already have?????)

10.  $29.99/month»

Delphi vende 13 milhões de receptores satélite

E pergunta: «podem 13 milhões estar enganados?»

«January 03, 2007 - LAS VEGAS — Delphi Corp. has just sold its 13-millionth satellite radio receiver, setting a new milestone. Delphi will showcase its satellite radio products next week at the 2007 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Delphi introduced satellite radio receivers to the OEM market in 2001. As satellite radio service providers revolutionize the U.S. radio landscape, Delphi has steadily ridden the wave by providing a variety of original equipment and retail receivers. The satellite radio market now boasts more than 13 million subscribers. Delphi is the leader in the OE satellite radio market and produces receivers for more than 10 new vehicle manufacturers. (...) Satellite radio is changing the paradigm of radio in the U.S.," said Ken Erickson, Delphi Electronics & Safety general director of the Entertainment & Communications product business unit. "Satellite radio has not only taken a long-time analog medium and made it digital, but it has also opened a new world of offerings to customers by providing more than a 100 additional channels of programming." (...) "Consumers now demand this level of flexibility and ownership, fueled even more today by their ability to personalize their listening experience through MP3 players," said Max Rogers, Delphi consumer electronics executive. "Satellite radio’s 170 channels of individual programming offers the same type of tailored listening experience with no downloading hassles." Many of the offerings are commercial-free and categorized by chronological time periods music genre and other defined segments that add another dimension to satellite radio that is not offered by traditional AM/FM radio.»

fonte: «13 Million Satellite Radio Consumers Can’t Be Wrong!»,Delphi Corp. 3/01/07

 

A convergência acelerada vai mudar os actuais conceitos

... um exemplo: a nova rádio via satélite nos EUA (e Canadá) vai evoluir para um serviço multimédia.

«Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) expects to offer a live television service in cars by late 2007, and deals with content providers may be set as early as January, CEO Mel Karmazin said Thursday. In an interview at the Reuters Media Summit in New York, Karmazin said the mobile video, likely to be available in 2008 model lines, would be geared toward young viewers sitting in the back seat. (...) "We have three content deals that are very close to being finalized. I don't know if they will be done by CES, but that is what we are shooting for," he said, referring to the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January. "We will have video in the rear seat of the car up and running." Sirius has touted the possible launch of such a service for years. In 2004, it said it would offer video services by mid-2005, adding at the time that the timing depended on automakers' wishes rather than Sirius' capability. It later said TV service would launch in '06.» (fonte: USA Today, 1/12/06, Sirius plans to offer TV service in cars by 2007)

Ou seja, mais concorrência oferecida no espaço que era da rádio, o carro.

Mark Ramsey não tem dúvidas: «The future of satellite radio is becoming just a wee bit clearer.And it is mobile media. Prediction: the term "satellite radio" will cease to exist by 2010.»

Para já ainda é opcional; chegará o dia em que será padrão?

« A Hertz e a Sirius no Canadá fizeram uma parceria que disponibiliza o Sirius Satellite Radio nos carros alugados nas três maiores lojas da locadora em aeroportos canadenses. Com o Sirius nos veículos de locação da Hertz, os clientes poderão conhecer os 110 canais premium de rádio por satélite do Canadá tendo toda a programação disponível.

O serviço, que é oferecido desde o final de outubro em Vancouver, Toronto e Montreal, inclui o Ford Escape, Chevy HHR, Hummer H3, Ford Explorer Ltd., Pontiac G6, Pontiac Montana e Toyota Camry, mediante o pagamento de uma taxa»

fonte: «Hertz fecha parceria para utilização do Sirius Satellite Radio no Canadá», Mercados e Eventos, 19/11/06

Terceiro mês de quedas na industria satélite

«Serious trouble for satellite radio
Not just for Sirius, but for XM as well. Citing data from NPD Group, Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby says the year-over-year decline in retail sales of satellite radio receivers is accelerating. XM sales were down 23% in October and Sirius sales were down 26% - the first month since April 2005 that Sirius had a worse month than XM. For the entire US satellite radio industry - two companies - unit sales were down 25% in October, following drops of 12% in September and 3% in August. Jacoby is now projecting that Q4 retail sales of satellite radio receivers will be down 20% from a year ago. The analyst says Sirius will now be struggling to make its year-end target of 6.3 million subscribers and that both companies are moving increasingly to an OEM-driven model, where XM is better positioned for receiver sales in new cars. Jacoby maintains a buy rating on XM, saying the stock valuation gap with Sirius should narrow over the next 6-12 months.»

fonte: «Serious trouble for satellite radio», RBR Daily ePaper, Volume 23, Issue 224, Jim Carnegie, November 16th, 2006

Quando o satélite tiver 25 milhões de assinantes

Uma vez que a emissão por satélite é livre de publicidade, muito mais gente procurará estes canais (quanto mais assinantes tiver mais barato se tornará o produto, teoricamente). É certo que a rádio por satélite tem, nesta altura, pouco mais de 10 milhões de assinantes, contra os clássicos 230 milhões de ouvintes da rádio convencional, mas podemos estar a assistir a um processo de transferência com consequências ainda imprevisíveis: os assinantes do satélite são um público com (elevado) poder de compra, que faz falta à rádio convencional. Para já são muito poucos, mas quando atingirem os 25 milhões já estaremos a falar de 10 por cento do total de ouvintes da rádio convencional (que nessa altura serão obviamente menos, até por transferência directa). Quando isso acontecer a rádio convencional vai assustar-se

É pela música que o satélite vive

« The study, led by marketing professor Yoram Wind, found that 43 percent of current satellite radio subscribers would cancel their service if music disappeared tomorrow. The percentage easily outdistances other forms of programming, including sports broadcasts and talk radio. Moreover, current subscribers spent 49 percent of their time listening to music content, according to the report»

fonte: «Music Drives Satellite Radio, Wharton Study Finds», Digital Music News, 13/11/06

Satélite e terrestre não são inimigos

Por muito que nos custe entender (e custa...), esta frase de Mark Ramsey «Satellite is not radio's enemy. It is radio's partner» é muito mal compreendida, na medida em que a rádio tradicional (terrestre) entende o satélite como ameaça, embora tenda - por marketing - a desvalorizá-la. A ameaça resulta sobretudo da oferta de canais sem publicidade, mas talvez a industria terrestre não tenha percebido que o satélite pode ser um negocio para si...

Mais dos números do satélite

(mais um estudo; desta vez da Bridge Ratings, out 06)

«48% of those surveyed said they would not renew their in-car satellite-radio subscriptions, while 30% of people who bought their radio at a retailer would not renew their subscriptions. Additionally, 91% said they had not subscribed to the Internet version of Howard Stern's radio show»

São falsos os numeros de assinantes via satélite?

«Sirius Satellite Radio is steadily gaining subscriber traction, though its numbers have recently been called into question. For years, both XM and Sirius have been scrutinized over how many active, paying subscribers they actually have. That is an important question, especially considering the high number of new automobile buyers that are simply tapping into free trials – and often not activating thereafter. And unsold cars with active radio subscriptions also represent a question mark. Recently, Sirius CFO David Frear was quizzed on what percentage of total subscribers came from unsold cars, and the executive pointed to a 10 percent figure during the fourth quarter of 2005. During earlier quarters, Frear noted that the percentage was closer to eight percent.

The comments came during the recent Merrill Lynch Media & Entertainment Conference, and terrestrial radio proponents seized on the figure. Using a recent subscriber tally of 4,678,207, the ten percent figure nears 500,000, or half-a-million, though the actual figure is probably less. Using a more modest 8 percent figure, satellite radio blog Orbitcast pointed to approximately 374,000 “car lot” subscribers. "And as Frear pointed out, the average days these vehicles spend on the lots is around 90 days," the recent post noted. Meanwhile, larger questions have been looming on the overall growth rate of satellite radio in general – active or inactive – and whether those rates can ultimately sustain the nascent technology.»

fonte: Digital music News, Terrestrial Proponents Question Sirius Subscriber Tallies, 2/10/06

Sirius e XM voltam a ter novos argumentos

Enquanto a Sirius aposta num canal exclusivo para a renomada orquestra Metropolitan Radio Opera («Beginning with this broadcast, the channel will broadcast live Metropolitan Opera performances each week throughout the Met’s season while also featuring hundreds of the Met’s archival performances»), a XM, depois de anunciado o acordo com Oprah Winfrey, acaba de anunciar que o programa começa esta segunda-feira: «"Oprah & Friends," is a new channel on XM which will feature original programming including regular segments hosted by popular personalities from "The Oprah Winfrey Show" and O, The Oprah Magazine and a weekly reality radio show with Oprah Winfrey and Gayle King. The channel will originate from a new XM facility at Harpo Studios in Chicago, Oprah's media home base. The "Oprah & Friends" channel will feature original daily programming on a variety of topics including nutrition, fitness, health, self improvement, home, and current events from popular "Oprah" personalities (...)»

O relevante disto é que, por um lado, as duas empresas não desistem de oferecer mais e mais argumentos e, por outro, que são possíveis cada vez mais nichos...