3.0.1 Tendências do segundo choque

Muito mais escolhas (e diversidade) no Pandora

«Equally unique is the breadth of our playlist. Pandora musicologists will review any CD that is delivered to us, and in most cases enter it into our database and make it available for our millions of listeners to hear. Pandora’s collection includes hundreds of thousands of songs across the genres of Pop, Rock, Jazz, Electronica, Hip Hop, Country, Blues, R&B, Latin and in just a few weeks, Classical. These recordings range from the most popular artists to the completely obscure, and each month our nearly fifty musicologists analyze and add roughly 14,000 new songs to the catalogue – a very deliberate process that requires between 15 and 30 minutes per song.
There are no prerequisites for inclusion in the Music Genome Project. Indeed, it is quite common for us to add amateur homemade CDs to the service. As a card-carrying independent musician I am proud to report that fully 70% of the sound recordings in our collection, representing over 35,000 artists, are recordings of artists who are not affiliated with a major record label. Most important, because we rely only on musical relevance to connect songs and create radio playlists, all artists are treated equally in the playlist selection process and as a result independent music is likely heard more on Pandora then perhaps any other popular radio service. More than 50 percent of Pandora radio performances are from independent musicians, compared to less than 10 percent on broadcast radio. (...) individuals can hear the types of music they enjoy and simultaneously discover new songs and artists that would otherwise be literally invisible
to them. Unconstrained by spectrum limitations, webcasting has created a genuine explosion of accessible musical diversity. Lute music, classic country, jazz, klezmer, dixie, gospel, Latin and Hawaiian music – you name it and you can find it – every kind and color of music has found a home and connected with its audience, no matter how small, on the Internet.»



fonte: «Testimony of Tim Westergren» U. S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hearing on ’The Future of Radio’, 24/10/07
http://commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/TimWestergrenFINALFINAL1022505pm.pdf

A democraticidade de funcionamento do Pandora

Tim Westergren:
«Something unique about Pandora is that all music, once analyzed by our musicologists and entered into our database, wins and loses audience in the purest of democratic processes. If listeners vote “thumbs up” a song and artist are electronically added to more station playlists, the exposure is greater, and more people can offer opinions about that music. If listeners consistently vote “thumbs down” then the song is performed and heard less. Not even my musical tastes or the CEO’s favorites can modify the purity of how our musical taxonomy determines all Pandora radio performances»

fonte: «Testimony of Tim Westergren» U. S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hearing on 'The Future of Radio', 24/10/07
http://commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/TimWestergrenFINALFINAL1022505pm.pdf

A rádio do futuro discutida pelo senado EUA

O futuro da rádio é o tema de uma audição promovida pelo senado dos Estados Unidos.

Chamo a atenção para o depoimento do fundador do Pandora:

«In one sense multimedia convergence has already blurred the line between traditional ‘terrestrial radio’, Internet radio, mobile radio, cable radio, satellite radio and even community radio. For example:

1. Your mobile phone today can transmit a "webcast", and with a $2 adaptor you can listen to that Internet radio through your car stereo.
2. You can start a "community" radio station on the Internet and while content is focused locally, an audience is available (and may actually listen) globally.
3. Your car stereo today comes pre-loaded with AM/FM and perhaps XM, but in only a few years cars will have WiMAX broadband access and you will be able to enjoy Internet radio directly and throw away the adaptor I just spoke of.

To a listener who is hearing a single station at a given time, it is just radio and their choices are amazing – which content do I want to hear, when do I want to hear it, and on what device?

A rádio do futuro: distribuição

Mark Ramsey: «Read that again: "As distribution becomes more ubiquitous, the future is about continuously providing compelling new content that interactively engages users." In other words, when you can get anything, you want something. Broadcasters have a unique opportunity: To invest - and I mean invest heavily and wisely - in digital strategies now, which we still have the biggest and best media loudspeakers in existence. To invest in content that can thrive across multiple distribution channels. Unique, compelling content. «And to make radio content portable and interactive regardless of whether or not listeners are tuning in your frequency to get it»

A procura de interactividade na rádio

«One relatively simple model of interactivity as a continuum, which operates from only one dimension, can be found in the writing of Everett M. Rogers (1986). Rogers defines ‘interactivity’ as “the capability of new communication systems (usually containing a computer as one component) to ‘talk back’ to the user, almost like an individual participating in a conversation” (1986: 34). And – a bit farther down – “interactivity is a variable; some communication technologies are relatively low in their degree of interactivity (for example, network television), while others (such as computer bulletin boards) are more highly interactive” (: 211). Based on this definition, Rogers has created a scale, reprinted in Figure 2, in which he lists ‘degrees of interactivity’ for a number of selected communication technologies on a continuum from ‘low’ to ‘high’.As can be seen in Figure 2, Rogers primarily refers to the concept of ‘interactivity’ within the consultation pattern. The basic model is clearly ‘human- machine interaction’, understood in the context of interpersonal communication (‘talking back’). It is also because of this consultative aspect (selection available between channels and programs) that classical transmission mass media such as TV and radio can be considered ‘interactive’ – although to a lesser degree. As is presumably also apparent, this attempt to sort and define is relatively rough and lacking in information – a trait that is intensified by Rogers failure to deliver explicit criteria for the placement of each media.»  fonte:  JENS F. JENSEN, «Interactivity’Tracking a New Concept in Media and Communication Studies»

Excesso de oferta terá de ter consequências

«Várias estimativas de diversos países (ver Pool et aI., 1984) indicam que a oferta está a crescer a uma taxa anual constante de 8-10 por cento. Cada vez um maior número de organizações e de indivíduos são capazes de enviar informação a grandes distâncias a custo mais baixo; [Já] o consumo de informação está a crescer, mas muito mais lentamente, de acordo com as medições da quantidade de informação recebida ou a que se presta atenção. Na realidade, isto significa que a procura de informação é inferior à oferta, por uma série de razões, entre elas a limitação de recursos e de capacidade de processamento;  (...) A situação caracteriza-se por um insustentável desequilíbrio entre oferta e procura. (...) Do ponto de vista do receptor ou utilizador da informação, a «saturação» refere-se à maior dificuldade em encontrar informação útil ou adequada por entre oferta vasta, confusão, inconsistência e crescente dificuldade e custo de processamento e armazenamento da informação. » (McQuail e Windahl, 173) 

[A situação de elevada oferta de informação também pode ser vista de forma positiva. Existe mais escolha, a custo mais baixo para os consumidores, e mais possibilidades de acesso a canais de comunicação. O crescente excesso da oferta sobre a procura não tem de ser prejudicial e pode ser gradualmente corrigido (por exemplo) por um fluxo de comunicação (necessariamente mais equilibrado) ponto a ponto mais interactivo e por progressos na gestão da informação (armazenamento, substituição, acesso)] (idem)

Agregar valor à programação de rádio

«Ao conviver com outros serviços de áudio, texto, imagens e integrar cadeias de serviços de informação, entretenimento e comércio eletrônico, fatalmente haverá uma sinergia que estimulará o radiodifusor a buscar parcerias e alianças estratégicas com provedores de conteúdo para desenvolver serviços complementares e agregar valor à programação do rádio. Esse cenário que sugere ao radiodifusor abrir mão do conteúdo exclusivo para entrar no campo da troca de informação. Significa modificar a estrutura de trabalho dos produtores de rádio tradicionais adequando o seu perfil para mais próximo do provedor de conteúdo» (Nelia del Bianco, E tudo vai mudar quando o digital chegar, BOCC, ?)

O que significa a ideia dos Radiohead

Os Radiohead decidiram «leiloar» as músicas do seu novo disco e obtiveram enorme impacto mediático com essa novidade. Provavelmente muito mais do que aconteceria se fosse um lançamento clássico, através da rádio...

«O novo álbum dos Radiohead, disponível para compra apenas no site oficial da banda por preços determinados pelos próprios fãs, foi descarregado 1,2 milhões de vezes em apenas dois dias» OU seja, a rádio está a passar para trás, há cada vez mais alternativas para os músicos se afirmarem, junto dos fãs, sem que tenham de passar pela intermediação. E apesar de muitos não terem pago ou da pirataria, «Os Radiohead arrecadaram 4,8 milhões de libras com a operação «In Rainbows». Em média, cada pessoa pagou 4 libras para receber o disco por via digital. Grande parte dos lucros vai para a banda já que não há nenhuma editora envolvida. Se tivessem recorrido a um serviço online para distribuir o álbum, calcula-se que não teriam recebido sequer um quarto do valor acima referido».

Jim Kerr destaca um outro aspecto, típico da nova ideia de web social: «The press has focused on different aspects of the process, from the economics of its pricing model to its role as a incredibly effective marketing vehicle. Both of those are relevant—the band will make money on the downloads, and the band and the album are all over the press—but the biggest benefit of Radiohead’s strategy hasn’t been mentioned by anyone, and it may be the most powerful benefit indeed: The database of users who downloaded their music.
In essence, Radiohead is potentially giving away their album to create a database of fans that they can leverage for future income, whether it is from merchandise, concert tickets, fan club memberships etc. This is lead generation in its most basic form: Pay a fee to gain access to a consumer who is interested in your product.
The standard value of reaching a new subscriber in the mobile and Internet space is often valued at 10-15$, which is, perhaps not surprisingly, the price of an album. For Radiohead, even their worst case scenario risk—that everyone downloading their album would pay nothing—is still worth it for the future income from the leads they will have generated.»

O fim do «um-para-muitos»

«Satellite and terrestrial radio alike were designed as one-way, one-to-many experiences. This had better change»

O conceito de «passive audio entertainment »

«Any rational view of radio's future - and I'm talking 5+ years out here - will conclude that Talk Radio will be a more important piece of the pie than Music Radio. That's because of the infinitely expanding choices for passive audio entertainment which are just over the horizon mixed with the growing demand from listeners to experience music audio with customization and control. But Talk is a different story. Because Talk is about talent and talent is - now and forever - scarce and expensive»

O que importa é o conteúdo, não a distribuição

«Listeners don't care how accessible radio is. Listeners don't care that it's ubiquitous. Listeners don't care that radio has towers, spectrum, transmitters, contours, satellites, repeaters, buffers or anything for that matter. Telling the listener about distribution means nothing. Because they don't care. What listeners care about is content. They want to turn on a device - be it a radio, a satellite radio, an iPod, their cellphone, whatever - and listen to something on their drive to work. Or hear something in the background while working on the job site. Or rev them up while they're cranking away behind a computer at work. Or laugh during the drive home after a crazy day at work. Rehr concluded by saying that Radio 2020 will, "give ammunition to radio's loyalists" as they respond to industry critics. He told NAB Radio Show attendees, "We need you to be evangelical about Radio 2020 and talk to as many people as possible. Repeat it to yourself, to your colleagues, and to your family." How about this? How about instead of drinking the NAB Kool-aid, and repeating "2020 2020 2020" to everyone in some cult-mania mantra... why not just do it instead? If "Radio 2020" is going to be some revolution in radio - which, let's face it, is a direct response to the fragmenting of media from satellite radio, internet radio, iPods, mobile audio, etc - then start acting on it, and stop talking about it.  If broadcast TV stations can survive cable (and even thrive amid 600 other channels), then radio can too... they just need to give a reason to do so» (fonte: «Radio 2020, and the future of "radio" Orbicast, September 28, 2007

O excesso de informação na net

«Many respondents reported they feel in danger of losing themselves amidst the wealth of information available on the web. In the face of large amounts of informatio, participants want to step back and remind themselves of what their own opinions really are» (McMillan e Morrison, 2006: 91)

Mais escolha?

«Listeners may say they want more choice, but in the real world of consumer behavior abundant choice is a distraction. Too many choices are confusing, and when faced with confusion customers do what's easiest and most comfortable: They choose the tried and true. It's a phenomenon author Seth Godin calls a "scarcity shortage." J. Walker Smith, presidenr of Yankelovich Patrners, has called it a "claustrophobia of abundance.» In the real world, consumers prefer fewer options, not more. Small wonder there's a new breed of boutique out there where the selection of product is limited to the discriminating taste of owner. In a sense, it's like a listener trusting her radio experience to the judgment of her favorire DJ who picks the records himself. It is critical that the radio industry understand this concept: The vast majoriry of listeners already have enough choice-all our research and racings experience tells us that. We assume that listeners subscribe to Satellite radio because of the enormous choice. I think this assumption is wrong. » (Ramsey, 2005: 90-91) 

«No futuro, mais do que nunca, o conteúdo será rei»

Doug Hall: «The last thing I'd want to own today is a broadcast radio station. If you're in broadcast right now you've got to think really seriously about that investment in the tower. If I owned a radio station I'd be trying to figure out what is the content I could own that I could then resell to others using my station as a test-market site - not as my primary revenue source - five or ten years from now. In the future, more than ever, content is king.»(RAmsey, 2005: 19). «And the person who owns the content is the one who will rule in the future» (Ramsey, 2005: 22)

A mudança de paradigma (a metamorfose) convergindo para a net

A grande questão é que, com exemplos destes, se antecipa uma das grandes tendências futuras: para os públicos, para os novos públicos?, não há reconhecimento das características dos meios clássicos (os novos não chegarão a saber, os outros perderão com o tempo os limites): ou seja, está na net e ponto final. Vem de uma coisa chamada televisão? E depois? Vem de um jornal? Mas não está na net?! Então é net (já não é rádio, jornal ou televisão). (a questão é que, para competir na net, a rádio devia potenciar as suas mais valias e os terrenos que conhece melhor e não o está a fazer e estes exemplos não o demonstram)

Os consumidores do futuro vão condicionar tudo (intro)

«(...) Tomorrow’s consumer will certainly be different than yesterday’s, and even the day before that. The key to figuring out the future of technology trends, according to NBC Universal president of research and media development Alan Wurtzel, consumers want the media that they grew up with. “The consumer is behaving a little differently than they ever did before. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but things are getting a little crazy out there,” he said at the CTAM Summit here. A large reason for this is the emergence of generation Y (ages 15-28) into the consumer market and their acceptance of new technology.» ( fonte: «NBC U Research Head: Generation Y Taking Over», By Jason Braff -- Multichannel News, 7/26/2007)

Rádio linear e não-linear

         CConsequently the growth in subscribed radio feeds will mean non-linear radio will grow and will begin to become as important as linear radio in the fufuture. Both will complement each other – indeed fed off each other – and that change will also begin to change the production mind-sets- that pprogrammes are conceived not just as live, once off editions but as shows which will have a longer shelf life and which must work both in a live and rerecorded/down-loaded/RSS feed life. The mix of linear and non-linear will also change the business plans with the doomsday scenario of the ‘´'death of radio’ because of fragmentation and advert avoidance being met with the more realistic re-invention of the market into one which sells sssegments of its audience as well as the entire audience.» (Shaw, 2005: 19)

Cenários para o futuro

«In a sense there are elements of all five Ala-Fossi’s digital radio scenarios in my read of the future (Ala-Fossi 2005). Given the premise that digital radio will be multi-platform, available on a number of different digital platforms, it is extremely likely that ten years from now we will still be using analogue FM radio in junction with a range of digital solutions: digital terrestrial, satellite and Internet. We will continue in that time period to see different developments within national and geographical landmasses depending on the stability and needs of the radio and media markets and societies in those areas. So there will be digital diversity operating in a multimedia market with people receiving radio through a range of functions from radio sets to digital TVs to multi-media mobile devices.  But the driving force will be mobility and the ability to meet the ‘my media’ culture for on demand content which is personally shaped or selected rather than mass produced. (Shaw, 2005: 18)

Da era da informação para a era da recomendação (interactividade)

«We are leaving the Information Age and entering the Recommendation Age. In the past, it was difficult to gather sufficient information to make decisions, and we relied on recommendations to guide us through this lack of knowledge, based on others' prior experience. Today we have too much information, which, ironically, has made recommendations even more valuable. Now, we don't have enough time to sort through all the information, or we need higher levels of understanding to make sense of the information. So recommendations act as shortcuts through the information mass, getting us to the right, or "right enough," answer.»

fonte: Richardson, Adam, «From the Information Age to the Recommendation Age», Frog Design Mind, ?

A interactividade significa, também, partilhar informação

«Do mesmo modo, a informação acerca dos padrões de consumo, quando transformada em recomendações, pode constituir uma poderosa ferramenta de marketing. Uma informação mais aprofundada sobre os produtos, desde as críticas às especificações técnicas, pode responder a questões que, caso contrário, poderiam fazer com que o cliente se coibisse de comprar. Explicar a um consumidor por que motivo lhe é fornecido um determinado conjunto de recomendações é um mecanismo que ajuda a criar confiança no sistema e que ajuda os consumidores a dar-lhe um melhor uso. A transparência pode criar confiança, a custo zero» (Anderson, 2007: 237)