3.0 O segundo choque

«O horrivel inicio de 2008»

«NEW YORK – February 20, 2008: Reacting to the RAB's report that overall radio revenue declined 6%, Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker today issued a report in which she described the result as a "horrible start to the new year" for the industry. In the report, Ryvicker also cut her Q1 forecast for the industry.
Whereas she previously had expected the industry to be flat versus year-ago levels, Ryvicker now predicts that the industry will post a 0.8% revenue decline for 2008.
She said, "We think Street estimates for 2008 are at risk and that most numbers will come down during the next two weeks as companies report Q4 2007 results and provide color on Q1 2008."» 21/02/08 radio INK 'Horrible Start' To 2008

INSIDE RADIO Thursday, February 21, 2008

Radio's worst January in more than a decade. There's no way to sugarcoat the stark fact that 2008 had a rough start for radio. Revenues fell 6% in January. But non-spot revenues continued to grow, increasing 11% last month. Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker says this "horrible start to the year" worries her. After just one month of data, she no longer thinks radio has hit bottom - and is projecting another negative year.

Big growth for online radio listening and revenues. Online music radio online logged 4.85 billion total listening hours last year, a 26% increase from 2006. AOL's Shoutcast remains the top destination, followed by Clear Channel Online. AccuStream iMedia Research calculates ad revenues increased 194% to $80 million last year - and that figure could jump to $150 million this year.

A rádio vai bem no Canadá

«“Every year, we wonder if this is the year where radio in Canada finally kicks the bucket and performs along the lines of its dreadful old-media brethren,” says Mr. Bayard in a recent note to clients. “And every year, we are surprised by radio’s resilience in the face of ever-increasing competition from alternative sources for information [and] entertainment.”

In fiscal 2007, which ended in August, the radio industry posted growth of 3.9%, according to figures published by the Radio Marketing Bureau. While this growth was restrained in comparison to a 6.5% increase a year earlier, the first four months of fiscal 2008 have so far produced growth of 5.6%,says Mr. Bayard.

Among radio’s strengths, he says, is its cost-effectiveness relative to other media, and the fact that radio rates highest for “the ability to connect with the consumer” who is close to making a purchase.»

fonte: Signals strong for radio industry, Astral and Corus, Posted: February 19, 2008, 9:02 AM by Jonathan Ratner

«A rádio maltratou os seus ouvintes e anunciantes»

1. Our listeners are going away. (...)
2. Radio has maltreated its listeners and advertisers. Too much clutter, too many station promos, too little leadership, and too much research. We follow our listeners instead of leading them. We pander to them. (...)
3. Consolidation has helped the quality of the radio product…the actual “on air” presentation. It has not helped to expand the range of programming choices available to our audiences. This has been a huge disappointment.
4. Consolidation has done harm to one of our most basic and important tenets of commercial radio: the ideal of localism.

A perda de audiências nos EUA

«Radio reaches a large portion of adults on a weekly basis, but time spent listening is at a 27-year low. In September 2002, Duncan’s American Radio reported that the “average persons rating” – the percentage of the U.S. population listening to the radio in any average quarter hour – has experienced a near-17 percent drop in listening over the last 13 years.» Future of Music Coalition, Radio Deregulation: Has It Served Citizens and Musicians?

«O que é que há de errado com a rádio tradicional?»

«Many people are dissatisfied with the state of commercial radio in the U.S. today. “It all sounds the same” and “there’s nothing there for me” are common complaints. Observers point to consolidation in the radio industry as the cause. Since 1996, when Congress deregulated the radio industry, a wave of mergers has placed the majority of radio stations into the hands of a few large corporations. During this time the number of independent radio stations shrank. Uniform corporate policies and market research-driven programming have reduced the variety of music on commercial radio. One critic summed up this approach as “play the fewest songs that appeal to the most people.” Also problematic is the requirement that record companies make big payments to promoters in order to get their songs on the radio. As a consequence it is harder than ever for new acts to be heard on commercial radio; only the biggest and best-financed acts get access to the commercial airwaves. Bill Wyman of the Rolling Stones recently said, “The Rolling Stones would never make it now.”»

BREEDING, Andy (2004), Internet Music Services, MA: Giant Path, pag 18

«Parem de negar o futuro»

«Constant denial -- that's what's killing radio.

Last week we heard the same old song again at the Southern California Broadcasters Association gathering. I don't know about you but these guys are starting to scare me.

Radio-Info's Tom Taylor reported that Clear Channel's John Hogan said "performance and capability is not our problem. Our problem is one of perception". (...) They have driven off the next generation -- have no clue what they want -- and think the problem is about perception. No one cares about perception -- they care about content and -- I might add -- how it is delivered.»

fonte: Jerry Del Colliano, Redfine Radio -- Don't Reinvent It 4/02/08

A queda das audiências na GB

«The biggest hit has been taken by chart-led mainstream music. In part this reflects the generic decline of the chart from something central to mass audience judgements on popular music, to a smaller part of the overall music scene. The gradual decline in main-stream chart radio listening over the past 5 years has accelerated: from 40% of commercial listening at the start of the decade, to 30% and still falling. Some interesting parallels with main-stream, mass audience television; but unlike mass television there are no rising power ratios to sustain the value of radio advertising.» Stephen A Carter (Chief Executive, Ofcom), The Radio Festival - Certainty or Security? The Path to Digital 04|07|05

A erosão da escuta (EUA): menos 13% (1998-2006)

«Owing to numerous media alternatives available, overall time spent listening (TSL) has slipped 13% between 1998 and 2006, but less than an hour in the four years from 2002 to 2006. The largest erosion since 1998 for men has been with 18-24s, with a decline of 17%; for women, the largest decline has been among Teens, whose TSL has decreased 23%. The least slippage in time spent listening among men during those eight years has been with 45-54s, losing less than 6%; among women, it is the 45-54 group, down 9%»

fonte: Radio Today 2007, Arbitron, pag 91

 

A cotação das empresas de rádio na bolsa de NI (recessão)

«A friend put together this list of key radio companies before yesterday's roller coaster ride on the Dow. Look how well they have built shareholder value for their investors.

Spanish Broadcasting
High 42.00 -- Recently 1.54 -- Loss of 96.33% (1.50 yesterday)

Emmis
High 62.34 -- Recently -- 2.47 -- Loss of 96.04% (2.62 yesterday)

Radio One
High 31.33 -- Recently 1.77 -- Loss of 94.35% (1.68 yesterday)

Citadel Broadcasting
High 22.79 -- Recently 1.69 -- Loss of 92.58% (1.52 yesterday)

Regent
High 14.19 -- Recently 1.49 -- Loss of 89.50% (1.32 yesterday)

Salem
High 33.65 -- Recently 4.63 -- Loss of 86.24% (3.93 yesterday)

Entercom
High 67.75 -- Recently 11.00 -- Loss of 83.76% (11.00 yesterday)

Cumulus (Private buyout in progress)
High 22.70 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.01% (5.43 yesterday)

Saga
High 23.44 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.83% (5.97 yesterday)

Beasley
High 19.34 -- Recently 5.05 -- Loss of 73.89% (4.48 yesterday)

Cox Radio
High 34.67 -- Recently 11.10 -- Loss of 67.98% (10.89 yesterday)

Entravision
High 20.31 -- Recently 7.27 -- Loss of 64.20% (6.03 yesterday)

Clear Channel (Private Buyout in Progress)
High 91.50 -- Recently 34.42 -- Loss of 62.38% (32.14 yesterday)

CBS
High 35.50 -- Recently 24.00 -- Loss of 32.39% (22.28 yesterday)
(New issue missing most of the loss).»

fonte: «Radio's "Recession" Started A Long Time Ago», Jerry Del Coliano, 23/01/08

Há sempre quem veja o copo meio cheio (ou como é preciso ter cuidado com as previsões)

«A pesar de las aciagas predicciones de la segunda mitad de los años noventa, la radio está de regreso y, en muchas maneras, mas fuerte que nunca. Las ganancias están aumentando y la audiencia es constante. A medida que avanza un nuevo siglo vemos también como las fortalezas tradicionales de la radio siguen realzando el atractivo del medio. Ahora también es posible acceder, por medio de un teléfono celular, a estaciones de radio por Internet» (Hausman, Benoit e O'Donnell, 2001: 351) 

2007: a rádio bateu no fundo?

«Why is the Emmis CEO so optimistic? “While I know everybody is beating up on radio — I think 2008 really has a chance to be a better year.” Beyond the view from the bottom — it can’t get any worse — Smulyan says some Emmis sales operations are in “better shape than they’ve been in awhile.” For now, the news isn’t good. Revenues were down 7% last quarter. That made Smulyan’s optimism a tough sell on Wall Street. Emmis stock was down 9% last night in after-hours trading»

A rádio «sempre soube reinventar-se e ultrapassar todas as crises»

Continua a haver quem pense que basta olhar para o passado para a rádio sobreviver, que a rádio se reinventará por si própria. Como?

«Acontece, porém, que este meio sempre soube reinventar-se e ultrapassar todas as crises, atraindo novas gerações de ouvintes. A rádio serviu regimes ditatoriais e foi também a via usada para iniciar revoluções. Foi amadora e formou profissionais. Foi pirata e impôs novas frequências. Foi defensora do culto do programa de autor e apostou nos ouvintes segmentados. Foi um meio de comunicação unidireccional, bidireccional e agora é interactivo. Alguém tem dúvidas de que a rádio é um meio fascinante cheio de futuro?» (Rui Camarinha, Briefing, 19/10/07).

Vale a pena citar Mark Ramsey: «the absurdity of relating the present state of the radio (yes, radio) industry to any time in its ancient history. For example, the birth of FM back in the late 60's to 70's lived in a technological environment which this chart clearly shows has completely disappeared»

2008, um ano a cair nas receitas

«Beaten down by the market for yet another year, radio companies appear poised to face more of the same in 2008, with projections typically calling for minuscule to nonexistent growth in advertising revenue and increased competition for listeners as a foregone conclusion.The current year certainly looks poised to go down as another difficult period for the industry, with total advertising revenue down 2% year over year through three quarters, according to figures released by the Radio Advertising Bureau Dec. 3, data that also showed revenue figures sagging further in the latter portion of the year, with third-quarter revenue down 5% year over year. (...) Wachovia Equity analyst Marci Ryvicker, for instance, recently said she now views radio as a "no growth medium" and puts zero percent growth as a likely, and potentially a "best case scenario" for 2008.  (...) Ryvicker noted three major trends that will conspire to hold radio revenues down in 2008 and beyond: the flight of ad dollars to new media, the generally depressed state of the economy and a slowdown in overall ad expenditures.»

fonte: MarketWeek: Radio revenues to get 'down' in 2008, SNL Interactive December 14, 2007 1:12 PM ET By Dave Hendrick

A erosão não vai parar (Mark Ramsey)

«The erosion we're currently seeing in radio usage - especially among the young - is not a hiccup. It is part of a long-term trend we are only beginning to experience. The more we face competitive alternatives which substitute for radio's core benefits, the more this trend will accelerate»

«Temos de reinventar a rádio»

... diz o presidente do grupo Emmis, Jeff Smulyan: "We have to re-invent this medium."

R de recessão (EUA)

«Wall Street uses the “R” word.

It's bracing for a local advertising slowdown. “Local advertising appears to be in the midst of recessionary trends” says Bank of America's Jonathan Jacoby, who believes that’s putting more pressure on an already weak marketplace. But it’s not just radio. All local media will be hit, says Wachovia's Marci Ryvicker, downgrading her radio, TV and outdoor estimates. She bases her read on economic and advertising woes, which she believes are “no longer temporary.”»

Mais optimismo sobre o futuro!

«Dan Mason: “Radio is reinventing itself as a reach medium.”

After sitting out of the public debate over Arbitron’s People Meter rollout, CBS Radio CEO Dan Mason is going on the record with research-fueled reasoning backing electronic measurement. He says “Our commitment is to lead the radio industry in proving the value and power of local radio and also proving the value of radio reach.” »

«Alguém tem dúvidas de que a rádio é um meio fascinante cheio de futuro?»

Eu tenho! «Meio fascinante» e «oásis»????

A frase é de Rui Camarinha, no Briefing: «A rádio em Portugal está a atravessar o deserto mas já tem o oásis à frente. Será miragem? Os números indicam que há uma série de estações de qualidade com fraca audiência e outras tantas que não se percebe por que são tão ouvidas. A verdade é que a rádio no seu todo perde ouvintes, tem menor notoriedade e regista pouco potencial para atrair investimento publicitário, pelo menos quando comparado com outros meios de comunicação, como a televisão e, principalmente, a internet. Numa frase, a rádio deixou de ser sexy.»

O que os animadores dizem pode levar a desligar

É um estudo inovador, realizado por Mark Ramsey e apresentado no recente NAB Barcelona (realizado com base nos resultados do PPM).

Mark mostra que no momento em que o microfone se abre aumentam as probabilidades dos ouvintes desligarem:

«Listeners are almost 4x more likely to tune away from WBEN during an open mic than during a song» (imagem 79)

O que fazer? «Actions... • An open mic is a privilege, not a right; • Get to the point • Use that time wisely • Keep it tight • Plan, don’t Spam» (imagem 80); ou seja a solução não é calar os dj's/animadores

(tambem pode ser acedido a partir daqui)

Uma coisa positiva em 2008: não será muito negativa... (EUA)

«With the clock ticking toward a new year, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller projects radio will have another “challenging” year as revenues hold flat with “many forces on either side of the scale.” Miller says “Incredibly, one of the biggest positives for local radio in 2008 is that there will likely be fewer negatives.” On the plus side are more political dollars and increasing web revenues.»

fonte: «2008 Forecast: “The scale could tip either way.”», Inside Radio, 29/10/07