3.0 O segundo choque

«A internet não compete com a rádio»!

(uma visão optimista...)

«Bob Pittman may be known to most of the world as an Internet visionary, but he was a broadcaster first and he told the NAB Show Radio Luncheon yesterday that it is frustrating to hear people talk about radio as if there’s something wrong with the business. “Radio is mobile, it’s easy to use, it has a lot of choice,” Pittman said. Repeating comments we’d heard him use previously when talking about new media, he said what makes a great consumer business is convenience and brand – and “radio wins on both counts.” The one-time radio programmer noted, “I think there are probably no better brand builders in the world than radio programmers.” Despite all of the hype about the Internet replacing broadcasting, Pittman, who is currently an investor in radio and TV groups as well as new media, insisted “the Internet is not television or radio.” People still turn to broadcasting for entertainment, while they use the Internet to manage their lives.» fonte: Pittman: Internet does not compete with radio and television, RBR 15 April, 2008

A história não se repete?

(será um erro entender a Internet como uma espécie de meio que vem concorrer com os clássicos; a Internet não concorre com um, mas com todos. Mas a Internet concorre, integrando os anteriores, juntando-os, convergindo, criando algo de novo, fazendo coexistir os antigos mas de forma diferente, alterando-os; se a Internet fosse um meio concorrente, a história poderia repetir-se; assim, do que estamos a falar é de uma nova categoria, de uma nova ideia de comunicação)

«The history and evolution of media resemble that of species in nature: The introduction of a new medium (species) typically changes the uses and interactions among the existing media. This is not surprising given that the system consisting of media and ecological systems are both based on very similar principles (e.g., the survival of the fittest). (...) This is, in fact, how media have evolved as well Following the introduction of movies over a short span of time, they enjoyed their golden age, accompanied by relatively little change, until radio came along. The evolution of radio, television, and interactive media has followed the same general pattern. (...).

To survive radio’s challenge, the motion picture industry was forced to move to sound and later to color films. More direct and compelling challenges to movies came from television. Television provided the same entertainment function that movies provided but with the added convenience of delivering programs directly to homes. To survive this threat, the movie industry had to cooperate with television by providing materials for broadcasting. As for radio, it had to reinvent itself to survive the television challenge. Radio was forced to move from being a staple at the center of the living room to becoming portable and physically going to where television could not. The television industry, in an effort to survive with multimedia, introduced high-definition television, a breakthrough toward the computerization of home television sets. This digital technology is expected to provide multimedia Internet services for the television networks and local stations. Radio, too, has taken the step toward digital broadcasting in what is referred to as digital audio broadcasting. (PAIK, 2001: 24-25) 

 

A elevada penetração da rádio

«(...)by 1930, 46% of American households had a radio, and 10 years later that number had grown to more than 80%. By 1970, radio ownership had already reached 98%, nearly the current ownership rate (99%). Of course, one may question the appropriateness of radio ownership as a measure of radio's popularity, for it is entirely possible that a great many radios simply sat unused, collecting dust. However, as seen (...), the increase in ownership is matched by a comparable increase in the number of radio stations» (Paik, 2001: 11)

Audiências EUA: de 23,5 para 21,1 milhões

«the number of people listening to AM/FM broadcasts at the average moment has declined from 23.5 million to 21.1 million people. “More than ever before”? Sorry, not by this definition of “radio”.) (Arbitron data available here.)

Consumo de rádio diminui (casa)

«In-home radio listening – as was the case in the ’07 study – is diminished as respondents continue to utilize other media in their residences. (This was an alarming pattern that we saw up-close and personal in "The Bedroom Project.") In-car and at work listening, and audio streaming display positive momentum.»

«TechSurvey 2008», Jacobs Media, Março 2008

A industria insiste: o problema é de percepção

«“We’re like water, like electricity – people love us, but they don’t think about us very much.” Jeff Smulyan acknowledges that radio’s got its challenges – though it’s “not newspaper”, as I’ll explain in a moment. But he thinks “our biggest problem is one of perception.” Meaning that American use radio all the time, but don’t think about it. Part of that “engage the consumer” business is to make sure that radio’s available on “every mobile phone, PDA and mp3 player within five years.” The Emmis boss says “we have to be there, we have to be 360 degrees, everywhere our customers are.” Many Nokia and Sony phones around the world already come equipped with radio, and Jeff says in this country, “We believe it’s a perfect solution to the WARN Act” about emergency notification. There are “discussions with the American cellular industry” about making radio standard in phones. As for iPods: Jeff says a radio unit is already a best-selling accessory for the iPod. (Nobody asked about AM radio, by the way: it’s got a less-certain path to inclusion in future devices.) Smulyan insists that radio “isn’t hiding from new technology, we’re driving it.” But there were direct challenges from the audience during the Q&A » (Radio-Info.com, «Wanted: Some backbone», 3,04,08

A queda na audiencias da rádio EUA

Weekly Radio Reach

Percentage of the Population 12 and Older, 1998-2007

Source: Arbitron, “The Infinite Dial 2007: Radio’s Digital Platform,” April 19, 2007 fonte: Audience, By the Project for Excellence in Journalism, State of the news media 2008

Pony Express e o Código Morse (o mesmo conteúdo por meios diferentes) (3.2)

OU COMO SE PROVA QUE UM MEIO PODE SUBSTITUIR O OUTRO SE TIVER VANTAGENS SOBRE O ANTERIOR:

«The Pony Express operated from 1860 to 1861. It was an expensive service for letters and most people couldn’t afford the up to $5.00 dollar cost of sending mail. The founders always assumed the federal government would come through with a contract to provide most of their income. It never happened. The U.S. government decided a new technology called the “telegraph” would be better and eventually, The Pony Express folded. Both services were able to deliver messages – one by traditional letters via riders, the other by Morse Code via wire. Both the Pony Express and telegraph delivered the same content. The telegraph just was able to do it faster and cheaper.

Is AM and FM today’s “Pony Express” and WiMax the next “telegraph”? When WiMax takes hold, Internet Radio and Podcasting might be able to do it better than AM and FM because startup costs for stations will be very modest, no one will need to apply for a license to broadcast, the F.C.C. won’t have control over WiMax-enabled radio stations (at least as of now), and stations will be able to narrowcast to a smaller audience with more unique content because less overhead will make it easier to support niche programming.  Given that scenario, this is no time for anyone in traditional Radio to look down their nose at the upstarts and wannabes because it is only a matter of time until they are given the technological footing to compete equally. All they will have to do is come up with good content – better content than old media did.» (How Will We Define Radio in the Future?  Corey Deitz, 3/01/07)

Uma queda nas audiências (EUA) ainda antes da internet

«(...) the Arbitron ratings service tracks the amount of time Americans spend listening to radio, and its numbers show a steady drop since 1993, particularly among listeners age twelve to twenty-four. Duncan's American Radio, an influential industry source of statistics (owned by Clear Channel), says listening is at its lowest point in the survey's history, dropping 17 percent in the first three years of the twenty-first century alone» (Fisher, 2007: 294)

A crise na rádio também é de percepção

«Virtually everyone in radio believes the medium has become less fun, less creative, and just plain less worth listening to than at any other point since its birth» (Fisher, 2007: 294) 

«Stories about "why radio sucks" and "why radio stinks" popped up in the press. When Prince opened a concert at New York's Lincoln Center by asking, "How do y'all like your radio stations, New York City?" the crowd responded with a booming chorus of boos. At FCC meetings, activists favoring radio diversity dogged commissioners, urging them to defy the big corporations and return control of the airwaves to the public. And on the radio, Tom Petty, recently inducted into the Rock  the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, sang "The Last DJ": 'And there goes the last DJ

Who plays what he wants to play

And says what he wants to say»

(Fisher, 2007: 295) 

Para uma compreensão das consequências da concentração

«In 2002, when a train passing trough Minot derailed, releasing a toxic cloud of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer, local police tried to reach someone at the stations to get word about about the danger. There was no one at the studios of KCJB, the area's designated emergency broadcaster. The station was on automatic, running satellite-fed programming from Clear Channel. Even if there had been someone on duty, it's not clear how the station would have responded: among Clear Channel's six stations in Minot, there was only one full-time news staffer.» (Fisher, 2007: 282-283) 

'Payola' não era ilegal?

«Payola - gifts and payments to deejays made as inducement for playing records - wasn't illegal. Nor was payola new - in the heyday of sheet music, song pluggers handed out cash to get barroom pianists to play their tunes, and in the 1930s and '40s, promoters paid bandleaders to push their songs» (Fisher, 2007: 79)

«Others stuck to legal forms of persuasion. "I never gave a disc jockey money in my life," says Frank Falise, a promoter who worked the mid-Atlantic states for Universal, MCA, Capitol, and other record companies. "But you took care of those jocks very well. You made sure they got plenty of records, backstage meets with the artists, photos with the artists, great tickets. If they can take their listeners backstage to see Elton John, that builds their audience and helps them make more money at their station. There's no payola the way it was forty years ago, but the business was always based on relationships. "» (Fisher 2007: 288) 

O número de estações nos EUA continua a aumentar (13,977)

«(...) the number of licensed radio stations has continued to creep up. It grew to 13,977 as of Dec. 31, 2007; that compares to 13,837 stations at the end of the year before. Breaking it down, there are 4,776 AMs, 6,309 FMs and 2,892 educational FMs, which the FCC lists separately. (...) there are 22 more AMs in the United States than one year ago, 43 more FMs and 75 more FM educationals.

More interestingly, how do these latest figures compare to 10 years ago? The numbers tell a 10-year story: no growth in AM signals, but boom times for FM educationals, translators and boosters. Total stations in 1997 would have been described as “above 12,000.” As of December of that year, according to FCC statistics we compared, there were 4,762 AMs — virtually no net change in AM station count from today (and down from 4,804 at the end of 2002; AMs were just shy of 5,000 in 1990). There were about 5,540 FMs 10 years ago, so that category is up about 14% in the decade since; and there were only about 1,900 FM educationals, a number that grew 50% in the subsequent decade.»

fonte: «Number of Licensed Radio Stations Grows Radioworldnewsbites 21,03,08

O segundo choque (via Jerry Del Colliano)

- The decline in sales – radio is losing advertising revenue to interactive media.

- Radio listening is down.

-Radio appeals mostly to Gen X and baby boomers.

- iPods, Smartphones and the Internet are cooler than radio.

- Gen Y doesn’t listen to radio. Their solution: try to make them think that your limited playlist station is playing the most variety.

- Too many commercials.

Há dez anos a rádios tinha crescimentos de 10%

«Here are the revenue trend totals from the past 10 years, according to RAB statistics:

2007	–2.0%
2006	+1.0%
2005	0%
2004	+2.0%
2003	1.0%
2002	5.7%
2001	–7.5%
2000	+12.3%
1999	+14.6%
1998	+11.9%

The totals for 2004-07 also are boosted by non-spot/off-air revenue and increased network participation in the survey in the last two years.»

fonte: radioworld newsbytes What a Difference a Decade Makes 7/02/08 

A perspectiva optimista

A partir da ideia de Fidler (mediamorfosis)«Podemos destacar como segundo item a metamorfose onde os novos meios não aparecem espontaneamente e independentes. Eles emergem gradualmente da transformação de meios mais antigos, porém com o surgimento de novos meios os anteriores tendem a se adaptar continuando seu processo de evolução ao invés de serem extintos. A história da comunicação humana apóia esse argumento quando notamos que o surgimento da fotografia não extinguiu a pintura, que o cinema não inviabilizou a foto e que a tv não exterminou o rádio. Esta situação também pode ser explicada pelo terceiro princípio que a sobrevivência, onde os meios de comunicação são compelidos a se adaptarem e evoluírem para se manterem “vivo” como qualquer empresa atuando no mercado capitalista. A quarta característica do processo descrito por Fidler é a oportunidade que esta baseada no fato que sempre há uma razão social, política ou econômica que motive o desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias nos meios. É importante destacar que estas adaptações não ocorrem somente em função da tecnologia»

A recessão publicitária na rádio (EUA)

«JP Morgan analysts think radio ad revenue will fall 3% this year.

John Blackledge and Aaron Chew issued their outlook saying cyclical and “secular” pressures will produce a down year.

“We estimate that radio industry advertising revenue should decline 3% in 2008, driven by continued secular pressure (with continued audience losses leading to loss of ad share) as well as cyclical pressure as the soft macro trends should lower demand for advertising on the medium,” they wrote.

“We believe the radio industry is already amidst an advertising recession,” given declines in the second half of last year. The radio industry has underperformed nominal GDP by 5% on average annually since 2004, they said, but in recent months it underperformed by about 9%.

“We believe the below average underperformance will likely persist for most of 2008, offset to some degree by political spending” in the second half.»

fonte:Radio Is in Ad Recession, JP Morgan Analysts Say RWOnline, 29/02/08

A rádio como objecto de museu

«O rádio convencional, mais cedo ou mais tarde, se transformará num parente do antigo gramofone, um símbolo de um período, objecto destinado à exposição em museus» (Kischinhevsky, 2007: 126) 

Uma tecnologia não anula a outra? (o vinil)

«Uma tecnologia não erradica necessariamente a outra, emhora possa tomar espaços e atenções das mídias já existentes. Mas podemos tomar como exemplo os discos de vinil, que, no espaço de poucos anos, foram transformados em sucata (ou, na melhor das hipóteses, itens de colecionador), graças a um inédito acordo entre as grandes corporações da indústria fonográfica. Acordo esse que estabeleceu hábeis estratégias para conquistar a adesão do consumidor a uma nova tecnologia, digital, enbora de qualidade nem sempre superior à dos antigos long-plays analógicos.«(KISCHINHEVSK, 2007: 14).

e o DAT da sony, que não se impôs como substituto da cassete analógica, acabando por desaparecer.

Diagnosticos negros

«After years of reaping the benefits of consolidation and cost-cutting, radio is in desperate straits. According to the Future of Music Coalition, the amount of time Americans spend listening to the radio is at a 27-year low and the number of listeners has dropped 17 percent in the last 13 years.

Broadcast radio faces challenges from satellite radio companies for listeners, from the Internet for advertisers and even from automakers who are making it increasingly easy for drivers to turn their car stereos into mirror images of their iPods and skip the radio altogether.

Cutbacks haven’t worked out so well, serving only to speed the exit of listeners and making it harder to maintain smaller and smaller profit margins. Increasingly conservative playlists have made radio less essential to even the most casual of music fans, who don’t feel like they’re missing anything if they don’t listen every day since the same 10 or 15 songs are in heavy rotation for a month or longer.»