3.0 O segundo choque

O futuro da rádio; o que se discute na GB

«Radio at the Edge 07 - understand the transition to digital, online, on air and on demand. New producers, new platforms, new income streams, new costs, little regulation. How does the UK compare worldwide? (...) Radio for the Facebook Generation
In a world where social networking is all the rage, where does radio fit in? How can broadcasters and producers help manufacturers develop new products, and help listeners discover new programmes, new music and new stations? (...) In the days before digital, radio broadcasters had FM and AM and that was just about it. Today these platforms have been joined by DAB, online, WiFi, satellite, mobile and digital TV as routes to the audiences. New platforms are emerging all the time. But does the cost of being on multiple platforms justify the returns? Why are some of the UK’s biggest operators reducing investment in some new platforms? How can increasingly cash-strapped broadcasters justify an interest in all of them?» 

Wall Street reduz nº de analistas de rádio

«Over the last several months firms have either reassigned or fired their analysts covering radio. A year ago 24 analysts were assigned to radio. Now, only a dozen cover the industry. Just as stocks have sunk to multi-year lows and their worth has been reduced, some of radio’s biggest companies are going private. Deutsche Bank’s Drew Marcus says radio’s trading value “has dried up” and “that’s decreased the need for analysts.”»

fonte: «Radio is falling off Wall Street’s radar. Inside Radio, 15/10/07

Rádio: «vitória ou morte»

«"Obviously, in the battles that we face, individually, we are not in a life-or-death situation," Rehr said. "But from this story, we can gain inspiration and remember the fighting spirit of our forefathers. Yes, we will ask more from you. Yes, we will expect more from you. Yes, you will expect more from others in radio. But standing together, aggressively facing the future, we will bring a great victory to this great industry. Remember: Victory or death."», NAB President/CEO David Rehr.

«O meu maior receio é que a nossa indústria [da rádio] venha a ser uma vítima do seu próprio sucesso» (Mark Ramsey)

«(...) my greatest fear is that our industry will be a victim of its own success, its own hardened arteries and calcified ligaments» (Ramsey, 2005: 85) 

A queda das audiências da rádio não se deve à Internet?

Há, pelo menos relativamente aos jornais, quem pense que não (que caíriam de qualquer forma):

«The dark truth for newspapers is that their sales would be in serious decline even if Tim Berners-lee had never invented the internet and Metro was still an idea on the whiteboard. As the Telegraph website's Burton says: "No one has shown me evidence that the internet is making us lose print sales." And those newspapers that enthusiastically embraced free web content early on, such as The Guardian, find their combined web and print circulations in a healthier position than had they continued only to force-feed readers with slabs of Times New Roman. The Guardian's circulation would have fallen far further if it hadn't built up brand loyalty among students with its cluster of excellent sites» (Rob Blackhurst , The freeloading generation, British Journalism Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, 57 (2005))
 

«Ouvir sem ouvir»

«If there is something that characterizes the evryday relationship with the radio it is taht nobody sits down to listen to it, and many times, people do not pay attention to the broadcast (...). The distracted way of relating to the radio, manifested in the attitude of 'listening without listening' or keeping the radio on as 'background music', constitues a cyclic mechanism of withdrawal-connection that characterizes communication practices in domestic sphere» (Winocur, 2005: 323)

«A rádio tradicional está a perder importância na vida das pessoas» (eMarketeer)

Do relátório da eMarketeer Radio Trends:

«What's hurting traditional radio is its declining share of the media pie, in terms of time spent with media. Folks are listening to less radio as they spend more time on the web. As Macklin puts it in his report, “Traditional radio is losing its significance in people’s lives.". Yet radio still has a huge share, with a weekly cumulative audience of 282.8 million in the U.S., according to data from Bridge Ratings, and in fact some 90 percent of Americans still tune in to traditional radio each week. Further, radio is going through a whole set of changes that promise to widen its appeal, and many of those changes are occurring online. Indeed, Macklin believes that the key drivers in radio's future as an advertising medium will be station web sites and streaming internet audio. The number of traditional radio listeners is expected to remain relatively stable, at 274 million in 2015, but other areas are expected to grow rapidly. The audience for internet radio--simulcasts of traditional radio stations online and internet-only stations--is expected to grow from 72.0 million in 2007 to 187.3 million in 2015, according to Bridge Ratings» (fonte: «Brighter future for radio, despite it all, Media Life Magazine, By Heidi Dawley Sep 5, 2007)

 

A fé de que a história se repita... (a rádio é imortal...)

«"I've been in the radio biz for over 35 years -- radio was supposed to be dead by now," he [Edward C. Kiernan, general manager of Baltimore's top-rated talk-radio station WBAL, 1090 AM, and its FM counterpart, WIYY, known as 98 Rock] said, ascribing its supposed demise to the advent of television, to the fact that cigarette advertising was removed from the airwaves, to record players, cassette tape recorders, eight-track tapes and, more recently, compact discs. If none of these things killed radio, he suggested, then iPods and satellite radio won't either.» E a Internet?

fonte: MADIGAN, Nick, «Radio may survive this, too», Baltimore Sun, August 26, 2007

O que aconteceu nestes 10 anos

«(...) last ten years have been a period of rapid growth of the Internet and mobile communications, which has challenged not only the traditional ideas of radio broadcasting and audio delivery, but also those unique, new extensions for radio broadcasting which DAB was able to promise. Lately, the Internet and mobile phone networks have provided a basis for new nonbroadcast or hybrid audio services (e.g. Podcasting, Visual Radio)» (Ala-Fossi. 2005: 2)

«Hybrid systems are discussed here only very briefly. Visual Radio is Nokia’s architectural innovation, which combines traditional analog FM radio and synchronized visual GPRS data delivery via GSM network (Hedges 2005c). Motorola’s iRadio is another architectural innovation, which makes it possible to listen Internet radio recordings from mobile phone memory via car or home stereo (Klein 2005). In addition, there are some software innovations which aim at bringing podcasting services directly into mobile phones through wireless mobile networks. While Melodeo counts on downloading podcasts from the Internet directly to the phone memory, Pod2Mob software will instead stream the selected podcasts to an applet on the users cell phone (Melodeo 2005, Pod2Mob 2005)» (Ala-Fossi, 2005: 19)

Causas para a crise na indústria discográfica

«Os problemas na indústria da música não se limitam às vendas de CD. As rádios rock, que foram durante muito tempo o veículo de marketing preferido pelas editoras, estão a sofrer os mesmos dissabores. Em 1993, os norte-americanos passavam uma média de 23 horas e 15 minutos por semana com a rádio ligada. Na Primavera de 2004, esse número tinha descido para 19 horas e 45 minutos. As audiências de rádio estão agora no mínimo dos últimos 27 anos e é a programação de música rock que parece estar a sofrer mais. (...)

Os especialistas continuam a não chegar a acordo quanto ao principal motivo, mas eis os principais candidatos:

.O aparecimento do fenómeno do iPod: Com um rádio personalizado, quem precisa de banda FM?

.O telemóvel: Os condutores a caminho do trabalho ou de casa, presos no trânsito, eram a salvação da rádio nos anos 80. Actualmente, continuamos a ficar presos nos engarrafamentos, mas optamos por falar ao telefone.

. A Lei das Telecomunicações de 1996 (EUA): Ao acrescentar mil estações de banda FM ao sinal de áudio, esta legislação aumentou a concorrência e provocou estragos no modelo de negócio dos incumbentes. A lei também flexibilizou os limites de propriedade em cada mercado, levando à...

.Clear Channel: Frequentemente acusada dos dissabores da rádio, esta gigante dos media é tanto um sintoma da feroz economia desta indústria quanto uma causa. Uma vez que a Lei das Telecomunicações nos EUA enfraqueceu o negócio das rádios locais em finais da década de 90, a Clear Channel podia ir comprando as estações em dificuldades. A empresa é actualmente proprietária de mais de 1.200 dessas estações, o que corresponde a uma em cada dez. (...)

.A punição da obscenidade pela Comissão Federal de Comunicações (FCC): Sempre fez parte das suas funções policiar aquilo que era dito nas emissões de rádio e televisão, mas a FCC raramente exerceu o seu dever com tanto vigor como nos últimos cinco anos. O principal alvo foi Howard Stern, uma personalidade "terra-a-terra" da rádio com tendência para o obsceno. Depois de incorrer em coimas sem precedentes, Stern acabou por desistir das emissões da rádio terrestrce. No final de 2005, transitou para a rádio por satélite Sirius, onde se estreou - praticamente sem censura - para uma audiência de assinantes em Janeiro de 2006. (...)» (Anderson, 2007: 37/38) 

Rádio tradicional pode perder 8,5 % dos ouvintes até 2010 (Canadá)

« (...) In Canada, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters and the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission are seeking smart ways to work with new media. The CAB…

…believes that traditional radio could lose between 4.9 and 8.5 per cent of its listeners by 2010, with revenue losses of between $13 million and $39 million.

The CRTC has said that the rapid changes in digital technologies and distribution of media – such as music and other programming have “presented the radio industry with new opportunities, but also new challenges.”

It cited satellite radio, file-sharing and downloading, podcasting and audio streaming on the internet as “new and more flexible alternatives to the traditional practices of purchasing recorded music and listening to radio broadcasting.” »

fonte: «Radio Killed The Radio Star, Part One» March 20, 2006, Medialoper

Mais sobre esta previsão:

«New technologies like satellite radio and digital players are changing the traditional radio landscape and the industry says it wants help from the CRTC to survive. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission had called for submissions that would be considered in its current review of the country's commercial radio policy. (...) "We no longer have one single and regulated system of radio services delivered over the public airwaves and free of charge to Canadians. Instead, we have both a regulated system of the past and a largely unregulated, parallel system of new delivery platforms for audio content," the CAB said. Canadian private radio is confronted with an unheard-of array of competition for listeners and for revenues." The existence of these new competitors does not necessarily mean that more regulation is required from the CRTC, the group said, "but rather that smarter and more effective regulation needs to be designed." The group believes that traditional radio could lose between 4.9 and 8.5 per cent of its listeners by 2010, with revenue losses of between $13 million and $39 million. The CRTC has said that the rapid changes in digital technologies and distribution of media – such as music and other programming– have "presented the radio industry with new opportunities, but also new challenges." It cited satellite radio, file-sharing and downloading, podcasting and audio streaming on the internet as "new and more flexible alternatives to the traditional practices of purchasing recorded music and listening to radio broadcasting."»

(fonte: Radio group calls for 'smarter, more effective' CRTC policy», CBC.ca, March 16, 2006 )

E não é só a rádio que está em perda de audiências

(da edição de hoje da newsletter Inside Radio, reservada a assinantes):

«Radio's declining time spent listening is just the tip of the iceberg. Consumer media usage declined last year following two consecutive years of decelerating growth. Veronis Suhler Stevenson says the drop is because of changing consumer behaviors and digital media efficiencies which require less time investment»

fonte: «Media usage dips for the first time in a decade», Inside Radio, 14/08/07

Mais:

«For the first time since 1997, consumers spent less time with media in 2006 than they did the previous year, as media usage per person declined 0.5% to 3,530 hours, due to changing consumer behaviors and digital media efficiencies, according to the VSS Forecast. The drop in consumer media usage was driven by the continued migration of consumers to digital alternatives for news, information and entertainment, which require less time investment than their traditional media counterparts. For example, consumers typically watch broadcast or cable television at least 30 minutes per session while they spend as little as five to seven minutes viewing consumer-generated video clips online.  VSS expects consumer media usage to stabilize in 2007 and increase slightly through 2011, as out-of-home media and videogames will be the only major segments to achieve accelerating growth in the forecast period compared with the 2001-2006 timeframe. Overall consumer time spent with media will increase at a CAGR of 0.5% from 2006 to 2011, compared with 0.8% in the previous five-year period. The VSS Forecast is the only source to track, analyze and forecast spending, usage and trends in all 19 segments and more than 100 sub-segments of the U.S. media industry. The VSS Forecast also features the industry’s most accurate spending forecasts, producing a margin of error of +/- 2% for 9 of the last 10 years. The margin of error for the 2006 forecasts was + 0.4%. In addition to shifting their attention to alternative media, consumers are also migrating away from advertising-supported media, such as broadcast TV and newspapers, to consumer-supported platforms, such as cable TV and videogames. Time spent with consumer-supported media grew at a CAGR of 19.8 percent from 2001 to 2006, while time spent with ad-supported media declined 6.3 percent in the period» (fonte: «New VSS Forecast Released», VSS, 7/08/07)

 

Número de ouvintes cai nos EUA

«Radio listening continues to decline. From the fall of 1998 to the fall of 2006, Arbitron found that the average number of listeners per quarter hour fell 6.6%, from about 19.7 million to about 18.4 million, according to the study, which updates a previous radio review done in 2002»

«(...) from de Fall of 1998 to the Fall of 2006, Arbitron reports that the average number of listeners per quarter hour has fallen from approximately 19.7 million to approximately 18.4 million, a drop of 6.6 percent. (...) while listenership declined slightly between the fall of 1998 and the fall of 2000, listener ratings held steady between the summer of 2000 and the early portion of 2005. During 2005, radio listenership appears to have taken another substantial dip. Between fall 1998 and fall 2006 the average annual decline in the average num 0.82 percent. Further analysis, which is beyond the scope of this report, is required to explain whether these changes in radio audience and industry concentration reflect any causal links. The causes of audience decline and industry consolidation may be varied. For example, declining audiences could be related to the availability of alternative products, such as satellite radio, Internet radio, and downloading of digital music»

Menos tempo mas mais rádios (Canadá)

São os sinais contraditórios do tempo de mudança:

«Canadians are spending less time listening to radio, but the number of stations across the country is rising. As broadcasters chase advertising dollars in robust consumer markets such as Alberta, 29 more radio stations sprang up last year, bringing the total to 1,252, as dozens of new operating licences were awarded. The growth came as Canadians spent an average of 18.6 hours a week listening to the radio in 2006, a drop of half an hour from 2005, according to annual statistics reported by the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission. Average weekly listening time - which includes mornings, at work and while driving, the three points of the day when most people tune in - has fallen substantially from eight years ago, when Canadians averaged 20.5 hours of radio a week, the regulator said. "Since 1999, the overall per capita weekly radio listening levels decreased by almost two hours," the regulator said.

fonte: «Time with radio on the decline», Report on Business.com GRANT ROBERTSON, August 1, 2007

100 mil ouvintes perdidos em três meses?

«As rádios portuguesas perderam cerca de 100 mil ouvintes no segundo trimestre deste ano face ao mesmo período do ano passado, tendo a Comercial, a Cidade FM e o Rádio Clube sofrido as maiores quedas. Entre Abril e Junho deste ano, o consumo de rádio rondou uma média de 4,5 milhöes de ouvintes, contra os 4,6 milhöes registados nos mesmos meses de 2006, de acordo com dados hoje divulgados pela Marktest no Bareme-Rádio trimestral.»

fonte: «Rádio: Emissoras perdem 100 mil ouvintes no 2º semestre, Comercial, Cidade», LUSA,09-07-2007

Em Portugal

Isto até pode ser verdade («o recente estudo da Havas Media que coloca a rádio como o segundo meio mais consumido em Portugal, o segundo com a maior frequência de utilização e o terceiro em tempo dedicado pelos consumidores» Newsletter da MCR, Carlos Marques, Julho07) mas isto é apenas um sintoma do passado - a questão é como aproveitar esta realidade para dar a volta, mudando tudo ou quase tudo na rádio, em vez de ficar a lamentar a erosão que já começou, ainda que de uma forma lenta

A rádio tradicional não gosta da Internet

(The following was contributed by piano-driven Americana artist Dave Turner of Asheville, NC.): «Traditional radio and satellite radio are losing marketshare to innovative services responding to market demand such as Pandora, which I subscribe to for $12 per year. Pandora allows me to create radio stations based on their music genome project, which takes traits of music by certain artists and finds other artists with those traits. So, if I create the Elton John channel, it finds other artists appealing to Elton John fans. I create several channels named for my favorite artists, set the player to mix and it plays music I like all day with no commercials, and it introduces me to new artists and provides links for me to buy their music. (Now there’s money that really IS going to the artist in CD sales AND trackable listens.) Here’s the kicker: because of these kind of services, I NEVER listen to the radio except when I’m in my car, and then I only listen to public radio. I think that the big-monied traditional and satellite media companies would like to see internet radio stamped out. »

 

A rádio não tem futuro, diz Gabilondo

«El periodista y presentador de Noticias Cuatro Iñaki Gabilondo lamentó la "total pérdida de credibilidad" de la radio en España como consecuencia de un proceso de "enconamiento político" y de las "tertulias espectáculo" que han provocado "lo peor que le podía pasar a las radios", que han quedado "etiquetadas y marcadas políticamente". Gabilondo aseguró que la radio "es incapaz de gestionar la complejidad" del mundo. (...)  "Para nunca más volver a la radio, porque no hay futuro, sólo hay pasado", dijo antes de repasar la historia reciente de la radio y los cambios ocurridos de la implantación de la democracia en España y la llegada de las tertulias radiofónicas. "Se lo debemos al gran olfato de Luis del Olmo, que venía de la radio espectáculo, de la tradición de los programas matinales, y hasta que él lo hizo, era inconcebible escuchar una entrevista a un líder sindical por la mañana", explicó.»

fonte: «Gabilondo: "La radio ha perdido la credibilidad por enconamiento político"», Madridpress.com, 28/06/07

A rádio vai morrer em breve!

«"A rádio vai morrer muito em breve e só a publicidade é que decidirá por quanto tempo é que ela se mantém". O vaticínio, pessimista, foi assumido quarta-feira ao final da tarde pelo jornalista Luís Filipe Costa durante um seminário na Sociedade Portuguesa de Autores sobre a sobrevivência da rádio, onde estiveram ainda presentes responsáveis como Luis Osório, Luís Montez e António Sala.
O futuro da rádio portuguesa foi o mote do debate e Luís Filipe Costa não foi o único a demonstrar uma visão pessimista sobre o tema. Também Luís Osório, director do Rádio Clube, considerou que a rádio "está numa encruzilhada". E explicou: "por um lado, as receitas publicitárias não param de descer - muito mais se forem vistas à escala da Europa. Por outro, falta a ousadia de pensar que não existem desafios". Para Osório, actualmente, "todas [rádios] se parecem imitar umas às outros". Luís Filipe Costa argumentou que o estado actual da rádio deve-se "às novas tecnologias, como a Internet ou o iPod". Também António Sala revelou reservas sobre o futuro deste meio de comunicação, mas para o comunicador a televisão é a grande responsável. "A televisão esmaga a rádio, é uma luta desleal", afirmou o comunicador, profissional da Rádio Renascença. António Sala, que celebra 40 anos de carreira, aponta a criatividade como uma forma das emissoras se afirmarem no mundo da comunicação. "A rádio tem que se ginasticar e reinventar, sempre com imaginação. Tem que haver a capacidade de arriscar, de tropeçar e de não ser politicamente correcto", referiu. O antigo apresentador do histórico Despertar, e que também fez carreira na televisão, disse ainda que a rádio "tem que tornar os seus possíveis inimigos, como a televisão, em aliados".
Luís Montez, proprietário das rádios Radar, Oxigénio e Capital, foi quem fez o discurso mais optimista ao afirmar que, "agora, mais do que nunca, existe um maior número de rádios especializadas num género musical, existe maior variedade". Ao contrário dos restantes oradores, Luís Montez classificou as novas tecnologias como aliadas da rádio. "Com a chegada da Internet, a rádio ganhou imenso", diz, explicando que "os emails vieram estreitar a comunicação entre os locutores e os ouvintes". Isto porque, nos locais onde não existem frequências para determinadas rádios, os ouvintes podem agora acompanhar as emissões na Net. Luís Filipe Costa deixou claro que "só tornando a ser um espectáculo de som é que a rádio terá um bom futuro". António Sala, apesar das reservas sobre o futuro que se adivinha, rematou com a afirmação: "a rádio não está esgotada".|»

fonte: «"A rádio vai morrer muito em breve"», INÊS DAVID BASTOS, DN, 22/06/07


Luís Filipe Costa deixou claro que "só tornando a ser um espectáculo de som é que a rádio terá um bom futuro". António Sala, apesar das reservas sobre o futuro que se adivinha, rematou com a afirmação: "a rádio não está esgotada".|

Queixas contra a rádio tradicional

«Let's face it -- radio stinks. It's 40 minutes of commercials, 10 minutes of annoying DJs looking to offend, and maybe 10 minutes of music. And in that 10 minutes, you're bound to hear the same five artists multiple times, and the music will generally be the most inoffensive pablum imaginable. DJs are corrupted by payola and stations are driven by the profit motive to turn as much time over to advertising as possible. This sorry state of affairs comes just as listeners have a broad array of new options -- satellite broadcasting, the iPod-driven culture of user-created playlists, and Internet radio stations like Pandora and Last.FM, raising real doubts about whether broadcast radio will be able to pull out of its slump and find its creative spark. (...)»

fonte: «Notes From The Future Of Radio», Martin H. Bosworth, ConsumerAffairs.Com, 15/06/07