3.0 O segundo choque

«Um momento excitante na história da rádio» (GB)

«Radio is at an exciting point in its history. Total listening in the UK reached a record high of 45 million listeners in the final quarter of 2006, with 90% of the population tuned-in every week. At the same time, the number of households which have DAB reached 16% (up 44% on the previous year), while listening via other platforms is also increasing. Listener choice has increased considerably as new stations, offering new Formats, have been launched over the past few years by both commercial radio (e.g. rock, jazz, chill-out, speech) and the BBC.» (The Future of Radio, Ofcom, 17/04/07)

A certeza de que a rádio resistirá

«“The conventional thinking over the past couple of years has been that new technologies were going to overpower radio and threaten its relevance to the American consumer,” said AMS President/CEO Ed Seeger.  “Well, we’ve heard all that before.  Radio was going to become obsolete when television came along, and then when the eight-track cassette was installed in cars, and, most recently, when the computer revolution began.  It didn’t happen, and it isn’t happening now.”»

Baseado nestes numeros: «According to the AMS study results, 64 percent of those surveyed said they listen to the radio every day, while 69 percent say they listen more or the same amount as five years ago. Also, 84 percent said they expect that in five years, they will continue to listen more or about the same amount as they currently do. Additionally, 64 percent described radio as important to their everyday lives, with 84 percent describing radio as important to American life in general. In an AMS study from April of last year, only 36 percent of those surveyed had listened to Internet radio. One year later, 67 percent have listened to radio online, with 47 percent saying they anticipate listening to Internet radio in the future. Only six percent of respondents said they had listened to radio via a cell phone though.»

fonte: «FMQB, «AMS Study Finds Radio Still Going Strong», 5/04/07

As queixas do costume contra a rádio

«The radio is a magnificent invention. It transports information and music in a manner that my English major mind cannot even grasp-for free. Radio was hilarious and endearing as voiced by Jon Lovitz in the Brave Little Toaster. We should all love the radio.

However, the radio stinks. Driving in my car, I could do without hearing "Walk It Out" for the seventh consecutive time. DJs really love to hear themselves talk, and they should be rounded up and kept in a pen not unlike the ones that Sawyer and Kate were held in by the Others on Lost. The radio has helped make the likes of Nickelback and Breaking Benjamin famous. Ignore the radio, and pay attention to these bands that have existed outside the trainwreck of Top 40 music.»

fonte: «Boycott your radio», Jess McCauley '07, 03/29/07

O mercado dos serviços de áudio nos EUA

«A recent FCC analysis of satellite competition determined that the relevant market for satellite radio consists solely of Sirius and XM. The agency relied on antitrust law and the Department of Justice merger guidelines in finding that other audio services such as terrestrial radio (including HD Radio), iPods, and Internet radio are not competitive substitutes. Sirius and XM have tried to justify their proposed merger based on competition from iPods, HD Radio and other forms of audio entertainment. "The reality is that satellite radio competes with an awful lot of audio services -- terrestrial radio, Internet radio, with cell phones when hooked up to Bluetooth, and we compete with MP3 players," said Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin testifying before the Senate Judiciary's Subcommittee on Antitrust Competition last week. "This FCC decision that the current duopoly of XM and Sirius do not compete with radio, iPods or any other audio sources in the satellite radio market further undermines the arguments made by XM and Sirius to obtain a government-sanctioned monopoly," said NAB President/CEO David K. Rehr. "While the FCC clearly intends to examine all issues surrounding the XM/Sirius merger, the hurdle the parties must overcome to convince the FCC to change direction is very high."»

fonte: «FCC: Sirius, XM Do Not Compete with Terrestrial Radio », 30/03/07, Radio Online 

Mais uma opinião sobre o impacto das novas tecnologias

«The use of iPods, portable podcasting, satellite signals, digital HD radio, Internet streaming, and even phones as music-listening devices all grew. There were further signs that the new technologies were beginning to have an impact on traditional radio, from audience behavior and economics to transforming the ownership and strategy of the industry and altering the projections for the future. For now, the size of traditional radio’s audience remains fairly stable. But the amount of time people spend with it is beginning to ebb. (...) The only notion that seems clear is that the first major new communication technology of the 20th century — radio — is changing rapidly and appears likely to survive the early years of the21 st. The form or forms the medium will take, however, are still shifting.»

fonte:  The State of the news Media 2007

A McDonaldização da rádio (as clássicas queixas)

«Historically, commercial radio programming is safe, inoffensive and mass market to maintain advertisers and to build and maintain the largest possible audience. To programmers this is consistency, whereas to audiences it is predictability. MacFarland [MacFarland, D.T. (1997) Future Radio Programming Strategies. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates] describes this philosophy as the McDonaldization of radio with predictability and familiarity being guiding factors in programming strategy. It could be argued (and evidence of student listening bears this out) that it is predictability in commercial radio that has created the fall in listening by the ‘wirefree’ generation and the movement of audiences (in the UK) from commercial radio to BBC

national radio or to streaming web stations and Podcasts» (Berry, 149)

A culpa é (também) da programação:

«If radio serves to meet basic human needs at a variety of different levels [«All five of Maslow’s basic human needs can be fulfilled through the act of radio listening, the level of need being dependent upon the individual’s hierarchical position at any given moment in time.  Radio meets physiological, safety, belongingness and love, esteem and self-actualization needs in a variety of different ways and listeners can engage fulfilment simply by selecting the format type that meets their requirements at any specified period of time»], then it is important that radio provides the necessary variety of programming to fulfil the needs of all listeners.» (Radio Listening as a Function of Basic Human Need: Why Did Maslow Listen To Radio? By Morris W. Shanahan1 , New Zealand Broadcasting School, and Nicholas Brown, The Radio Network, New Zealand , 2002)

«McDonaldization of radio» será uma derivação da expressão McJob, sinónimo de trabalho sem qualificação na indústria do fast food, popularizada no livro «Generation X» de Douglas Coupland, de 1991. 

A rádio como um meio muito controlado

«Radio, and latter television, was a more tightly controlled medium than was the printed press» (Benkler, 2006: 190)

Rádios do EUA multadas por «subornos» (payola)

«Exasperated listeners weary of hearing the same songs over and over on the radio may have something to cheer about: a pair of innovative deals that could shake up the music playlists of some of the nation's largest radio-station chains.
Four major radio broadcast companies have tentatively agreed to pay the government $12.5 million and provide 8,400 half-hour segments of free airtime for independent record labels and local artists in separate settlements aimed at curbing the persistent practice known as "payola,'' according to sources.
Payola - generally defined as radio stations accepting cash or other consideration from record companies in exchange for airplay - has been around as long as the radio industry and was made illegal following a series of scandals in the late 1950s.
Two Federal Communications Commission officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because final language has not been approved by the full commission, said the monetary settlement is part of a consent decree between the FCC and Clear Channel Communications Inc., CBS Radio, Entercom Communications Corp. and Citadel Broadcasting Corp.
The settlement between the government and the four broadcasters was reached in conjunction with a separate deal designed to lead to more airtime for smaller record companies and their lesser-known artists as well as local musicians.
The American Association of Independent Music, a group of independent record labels, has received a commitment from the same four broadcasters for the free airtime, the sources said.
In addition to airplay, the broadcasters and the independent labels have also negotiated a set of "rules of engagement'' that will guide how record company representatives and radio programmers interact.
The free airtime would be granted to companies not owned or controlled by one of the nation's four dominant music labels - Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group, Universal Music Group and EMI Group.
The practice of payola, or "pay-for-play,'' has evolved over the years and become more difficult to track.
In recent years, "independent record promoters'' have acted as middlemen to deliver payments to radio stations in exchange for airplay. Other forms of inducement include lavish prizes meant for listeners that wind up going to station employees; promises by record companies of concerts by well-known artists in exchange for airplay; and payments for promotional expenses and station equipment.
Under the FCC consent decree, broadcasters would agree to closer scrutiny in their dealings with record companies, including limits on gifts, a promise to keep a database of all items of value supplied by those companies, the employment of independent compliance officers to make sure stations are following the rules and even a new "payola hotline'' for employees to report infractions.
Broadcasters admit to no wrongdoing under the three-year settlement, which has not yet been made public»

fonte: «Stations To Pay $12.5M In FCC Settlement» Billboard.Biz, March 05, 2007, By Associated Press

O principal problema da rádio é o excesso de publicidade

O guru Al Ries acha que «Radio is a powerful medium with great selectivity at relatively low costs, but Radiado threatens the very existence of the medium. Too much is too much»: O problema, diz, é que a rádio tem excesso de publicidade. Por isso diz que «For every ad that radio stations used to run, it now seems like they run two. Radio, in my opinion, has become Radiado, an extra "ad" inserted at every possible point in the programming». E no seu dia a dia, «My favorite radio personality is Neal Boortz, a nationally syndicated talk-show host who broadcasts out of Atlanta on 171 stations. I listen to Boortz every morning during the commute to my office in Roswell. Yet at the top of the hour, I turn off my radio and don't turn it back on until 8 minutes after the hour. Why? Because that's radio's black hole. Eight solid minutes of commercials, traffic, weather, news and more commercials. The second black hole occurs at the bottom of the hour, but it's not quite as bad. I turn off my radio for only 6 minutes». Por isso conclui que «The biggest health problem in America today is obesity. The biggest advertising problem in America today is obesity, too»

fonte: «How Radio Is Becoming RadiADo», AL Ries, Advertising Age, 4/03/07 

Mark Ramsey já comentou: «(...) ask the deeper question: If radio featured significantly less advertising, would that keep listeners away from their CD's and iPods and satellite radios and TV's and video games? Indeed, would that make the radio industry a healthier one? Less is not more unless less is zero. Then less is called "subscription."»
 

Há quem acredite que a história se repete

«“Is fragmentation occurring? Sure it is. But it’s always occurred for radio. You (reporter covering the call) write about the iPod. Ten years ago your predecessor was writing about CDs and 20 years before that his predecessor was writing about 8-Tracks. It’s always something.», Cox Radio President/CEO Bob Neil in «Cox's Neil: I'll Take Radio», radio Ink, 1/03/07

Previsões de perda no Canadá

«Conventional radio stations are losing their grip on the iPod generation as younger listeners shift to new technology, such as MP3 players, satellite radio and the emerging world of music-playing cellphones, the industry is warning Ottawa.In a lengthy document submitted to the federal broadcast regulator yesterday, the industry paints a bleak picture for itself as new technology permeates its market, eroding audiences and eating away at advertising revenue.Falling listenership among teenagers has become a particular concern for the industry, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters (CAB) said in its submission to a sweeping review of the sector being conducted in Ottawa."It is generally agreed that teens have abandoned conventional radio in favour of other audio platforms including peer-to-peer file sharing, music downloading and iPods," says the CAB, which represents Canada's radio companies."The key question this raises is whether today's teens can ever be repatriated to conventional radio." (...) Industry data on declining radio audiences are among the most surprising figures contained in the document. Under the group's worst-case scenario, listenership could fall 16.1 per cent over the next 10 years, causing a 14.5-per-cent drop in advertising revenue. The sector's most optimistic view predicts a 9.6-per-cent drop in listeners during that time, resulting in a 4.8-per-cent decline in revenue.If the industry saw a decline of that proportion last year, it would have cost $188.5-million in advertising revenue, the CAB said. (...) "We are facing an unprecedented level of competition." Mr. Goldstein said in an interview, adding that CHUM is very conscious of the industry's technological changes.  He said achieving "regulatory certainty" from the CRTC is more important. Several broadcasters are concerned that rivals, such as satellite radio, are not bound by the same regulations as conventional radio.The CAB says the fastest erosion of conventional radio listenership is coming in the 12-17 age demographic. (...)

(«Radio feels heat from iPod generation», Globe and Mail, SIMON TUCK, GRANT ROBERTSON, March 16, 2006)

A tendência para as audiências de rádio diminuirem

«weekly cume for traditional radio will slide from 94% of the U.S. population in 2007 to 77% by 2020»

«Bridge Ratings also predicts that weekly cume for traditional radio will slide from 94% of the U.S. population in 2007 to 77% by 2020.

Though that's a huge drop, this estimate is up somewhat from Bridge's previous quarterly projection.

"These new estimates are based on interviews with current listeners of traditional radio (AM/FM). Their overall perception of the medium and their outlook for future use improved during this quarter's interviews," President Dave Van Dyke stated.»

fonte: «... And a Tweak Up for Terrestrial », Radio world, 26/01/07

As rádios convencionais estão a perder valor?

Corey Deitz acha que sim, a propósito do anúncio da venda de uma parte significativa das estãções da Clear Channel:

«With competing technologies like Internet radio, Satellite Radio, audio content on cell phones, Podcasting, and WiMax, the value of old media AM and FM radio stations continues to fall»

fonte: «Top 10 Radio Stories of 2006», RadioAbout, 25/12/06

Mais sobre a rádio musical tornar-se obsoleta

Partilho com os leitores esta experiência notável:

Ontem uma das minhas séries de televisão favoritas, Cold Case (Casos Arquivados), terminava com uma versão espantosa da música «Somewhere over the rainbow».

Hoje de manhã foi ao Google e conciliei o nome da série e o da música e cheguei lá. Um artista do Haway, já falecido, com um nome impronunciável (Israel "IZ" Kamakawiwo'ole). Como na Amazon não vendem tema a tema, copiei o nome para o iTunes e comprei a música por 0,99$. Mais: fiquei a saber que é a versão mais vendida do «Somewhere over the rainbow); Aqui podem ouvir uma amostra do tema (de borla, claro).

Penso que é mais um caso que demonstra que a rádio musical - se não se posicionar como alternativa digital - ficará obsoleta. Viva a globalização, já agora!

Concentração radiofónica prejudica ouvintes

«LOS ANGELES, Dec 13 (Reuters) - A music industry watchdog group released a report on Wednesday saying that radio ownership consolidation has harmed the listening public. The report, released by The Future of Music Coalition, said radio consolidation at the national and local levels has led to fewer choices in radio programming and harmed the listening public and those working in the music and media industries, including DJs, programmers and musicians. Station ownership by radio giants like Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the leading U.S. operator, increased significantly with the passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, which eliminated the national radio ownership cap and revised limits on how many stations a company can own in a local market. In a statement, Peter DiCola, FMC research director, said the Telecommunications Act has backfired in terms of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's goals of increasing competition, localism, and diversity in radio. The report said the top four radio station owners have almost half of the listeners and the top 10 owners have almost two-thirds of listeners. The report also said the "localness" of radio ownership, or ownership by individuals living in the community, has declined between 1975 and 2005 by almost a third. The report said that across 155 markets, radio listenership has declined over the past 14 years, a 22 percent drop since its peak in 1989.»

fonte: «Watchdog says US public hurt by radio consolidation», 13/12/06, reuters

Publicidade na rádio ultrapassada pela web

«The web will top outdoor advertising in 2007 — with radio its next target. ZenithOptimedia Worldwide CEO Steve King says radio will see its share of the ad pie fall from 8.6% this year to 8% in 2008 while Internet spending grows at a phenomenal 28%. Meanwhile there’s some good news for radio - Meanwhile there’s some good news for radio - read it in today's»

fonte: Inside Radio, 5/12/06

Lembra Mark Ramsey: «Every radio station has an on-ramp to the Internet and the advertising revenue it can provide. What's more, radio has millions of ears that are likewise connected to millions of Internet connections»

E diz a Business Week: «The radio industry won't want to hear this. Advertising dollars are shifting online faster than analysts anticipated. In fact, advertisers will soon spend as much money on the Internet as they do on the airwaves, according to a newly released eMarketer study. On Dec. 6, the New York research firm increased its estimate for 2006 online advertising spending by $500 million, to $16.4 billion. The new estimate means online advertising will pull in about 5.8% of the more than $281 billion advertisers are expected to spend this year. That's less than radio's 6.9%, according to Universal McCann (IPG), which tracks the radio industry. However, radio's share is declining while online share is growing, says David Hallerman, a senior analyst at eMarketer. By 2007, online advertising will bring in 6.8% of the total and, by 2008, it will bring in 8.1%—putting it well over radio. By some estimates, online ad spending will overtake radio even sooner. Forrester Research (FORR) anticipates online advertising will bring in $17.4 billion this year—that's a billion more than eMarketer's estimate and would be roughly 6.2% of the total, putting online advertising much closer to overtaking radio.» («Advertising Goes Off the Radio», 7/12/06, Business Week.com) 

Contributos para o segundo choque

«(...) Of course any blanket statement is pretty useless today, especially when referencing music. Eighteen-year-olds are wired into the MySpace world; 40-plus Luddites are clueless about downloading; music freaks of any age will go anywhere the music is offered and there are traditionalists who continue to hear music on radio and buy CDs at the big box stores. And that’s an overgeneralization, with the point being that there are 300 million-plus North Americans and any blanket statements are, in my opinion, far too general in 2006.

And then there’s radio. It’s a different experience. The key to radio has been in evolving what comes out of the speakers as much as the technology. In 1970, FM was a superior technology sound-wise, but what made FM happen is the programming.

FM had been around since 1940 but in the 1970s FM attacked the vulnerabilities of AM, which was still paying by the rules of 1956. Same thing now, FM is vulnerable because it’s playing by the rules of 1980. When radio gets in sync with the era, it’s an experience that I believe will always be a significant part of the listening pie.

Years ago, there was similar talk about when eight-track, cassette and later CD players were integrated into cars. That same “radio is dead” talk.

Radio is resilient. It was given its last rites in 1955 when TV became mainstream. The emergence of these technologies certainly creates a challenge, but media ain’t no cakewalk. (...)»

Lee Abrams, «iPods Are Killing Radio!?», RWonline, 22/11/06 

13 793 rádios nos EUA

«The FCC has updated its tally. As of Sept. 30 there were 4,751 AMs, 6,252 commercial FMs and 2,790 educational FMs for a total of 13,793 radio stations. That compares to June 30 totals of 4,744 AMs, 6,238 commercial FMs and 2,760 educational FMs for a total of 13,742 stations. There are 746 LPFMs; there were 721 at last count. The FCC also says there are 4,087 FM translators and boosters. That compares to 4,026 as of June 30.»

fonte: RWOnline, «FCC: 13,742 Total Licensed Radio Stations in U.S.», 22/11/06

Não há crise na rádio francesa

«’Année Radio 2005-2006 confirme une nouvelle fois la puissance du média Radio : plus de 8 personnes sur 10 (82,8%) âgées de 13 ans et plus écoutent la Radio, sur un jour moyen de semaine, près de 3 heures (2h54 min).
En dix ans, entre 1995-1996 et 2005-2006, la Radio a gagné plus de 4 millions d’auditeurs âgés de 15 ans et plus. Sur cette période, le nombre d’auditeurs de la Radio, sur un jour moyen de semaine, est ainsi passé de 36 690 000 à 40 796 000.

Les auditeurs les plus fervents de la Radio sont en majorité des hommes, des actifs, et de catégories socioprofessionnelles supérieures»

fonte: «Bilan annuel de la Radio et nouveaux modes d’écoute», 10/11/06, Mediametrie, Communique de presse

Características do segundo choque

a partir do artigo «Changing Its Tune; Broadcast Radio Is Scrambling To Regain Its Groove» do New York Times, Richard Siklos, 15/9/06, traduzido pelo Courrier Internacional, versão portuguesa (outubro06)

- cada vez mais gente abandona as rádios de música para ouvir sites de musica; copiam essas musicas e gravam-nas em CD ou copiam-nas para o iPod;

- a rádio tradicional é ameaçada pelo streaming audio, o podcasting, os leitores de mp3 ou ainda a rádio por satélite,

- «O futuro da rádio parece cada vez mais incerto desde o fim da década de 90, período em que os industriais se atropelavam para comprar estações emissoras. Hoje, as receitas das rádios estão estagnadas e o número de ouvintes em queda. O tempo que as pessoas dedicam à rádio durante a semana caiu 14 por cento nos últimos dez anos. E, de há três anos para cá a cotação das acções das cinco maiores empresas radiofónicas caiu entre 30 e 60 por cento»

- excesso de publicidade; satélite é solução (rádio via satélite tem cerca de 10 milhões de assinantes contra os 230