3.0 O segundo choque

Um aviso muito sério: a rádio tem de se preparar!

«While upbeat about the future, Kaline said the medium could squander its opportunity if it doesn’t act quickly. Radio needs to embrace culture change, put consumers first – “don’t lose sight of the listener” when embracing new technologies -- and “get comfortable with being uncomfortable,” he said.

To that latter point, Kaline urged broadcasters to consider alliances it may have never dreamed of before. “Maybe you need to reach out to online, to mobile, even to satellite,” he suggested.» (fonte Billboard Radio monitor, Top Advertiser Says Radio Needs To Act Quickly, March 15, 2006, By Paul Heine)

Operadores do Canadá pedem ajuda ao governo para resolver o futuro!

«OTTAWA (CP) - Music via the Internet, satellite, IPods and a new generation of cellphones is taking its toll on old-fashioned commercial radio, and the industry wants federal broadcast regulators to help level the playing field.  In a submission to the CRTC, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters warns that "a new generation of unregulated competition is upon us." That, plus huge increases in music copyright payments in recent years, means the outlook for private radio is uncertain.  "This does not mean that more regulation is required, but rather more effective regulation needs to be designed," says Glenn O'Farrell, president of the CAB which represents more than 400 radio stations across the country. (...) The CAB projects a loss of listeners over the next decade to new audio technologies, warning the revenue losses could be as much as $39 million by 2010, and even worse beyond that.» (fonte: Faced with new media competition, private radio makes proposals to CRTC, Canoe Money, 2006-03-16 13:50:00)

Bolsa EUA pouco optimista para com a rádio

«Analyst sees 2006 as tough year for radio
The quarterly round of radio company conference calls is complete, and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes didn’t find much that sounded encouraging for 2006. "Subpar fundamentals and uncompelling valuations keep us on radio’s sidelines, as stronger pricing power is needed to lift revenue growth, investor perception, and valuations. Of terrestrial radio operators, we rate only Clear Channel outperform, on superior fundamentals and discount valuation," he told investors. Wienkes sees five challenges facing radio in 2006. After Clear Channel’s Less is More initiative cut inventories over the course of 2005 - - Wienkes thinks by 1% industry-wide - - he expects overall spotloads to be flat in 2006. With increasing competition from iPods and other "new media" options, he’s looking for a 2% audience erosion this year. Given radio’s "anemic revenue growth," the analyst thinks pricing increases will be held to 3% in 2006. On the M&A front, he says to look for only a few private groups to sell - - with the obvious big exception of Univision. Radio valuations on Wall Street, Wienkes says, "seem fair, but not compelling, and they lack visible catalysts." Noting that the current consensus of Wall Street analysts is that radio revenues will grow 2% this year, the Goldman Sachs analyst thinks even that is too high. He’s looking for only 1%.»

 

fonte: RBR Newsletter, Volume 23, Issue 52, Jim Carnegie, 15/3/06)

 

O segundo choque chegou sem avisar

Uma das características do segundo choque é que ele parece ter chegado sem aviso; pelo menos é o que se pode concluir de um conjunto de declarações feitas na década de 90 dando conta da satisfação e da saúde do meio. Estariam distraídos? Ou apenas adormecidos todos aqueles que, até esse altura, se contentavam em glorificar a sobrevivência da rádio? Um exemplo:

«Quando a televisão tornou-se popular, na década de 1950, surgiram previsões anunciando a morte do rádio. Passados mais de quarenta anos, o rádio é, hoje, mais empolgante e diversificado do que antes. A rádio local está crescendo muito rapidamente em diversas áreas do Reino Unido, que podem agora ter a oportunidade de desfrutar de uma ampla escolha de estilos e formatos radiofônicos. E milhões de pessoas podem buscar um conjunto de notícias de seu interesse através do rádio» (Chantler, Paul e Harris, Sim, Radiojornalismo, Summus, São Paulo, 1998, pág 15).

 

Uma previsão, de 97, sobre o futuro da rádio

Excerto da intervenção de Bill Kennard (presidente da FCC) no congresso dos EUA sobre o futuro da rádio:

«The radio industry is robust and thriving and the prospects for future growth are excelent. Revenues in 1997 were over $13 billion and radio stocks have seen record growth. Radio continues to connect people to their communities, perhaps more than any other medium. Just as the advent of cable television, direct broadcast salellites, and satellite radio did not adversely affect the success of radio, so is the fact that broadband Internet audio distribution will not kill free over-the-air radio broadcasting either. Radio remains unique as a local communications service, one that is the lifeblood of local information in all our communities and in our culture. To this day, radio stations provide local communities with vital local news and information -weather and traffic reports, agricultural forecasts, and school closings. Radio will continue to play a vital  and profitable role in our nation's communities» (McCoy, 1999: 22/23).

A rádio nos EUA sem talento

«(...) the search for great radio talent around the country slowed. The majority of radio stations became stripped of personality - and personalities. The human touch was gone. In its place was the safe, predictable sound of radio-by-the-numbers. Many operators embraced this trend because it was cost-efficient. It offered the option of not paying big money for some zany morning man or wild night jock, because the research indicated that all they had to do was play the best-testing records and shut the air talent up" (McCoy, 1999:2).

«Buzz Bennett: Everybody today is surviving on research. People aren’t using their instincts. There’s no instinctual movement; it’s all rational movement, which is okay in a noncreative industry, but in radio, it takes people who want to drive themselves to create something new» (McCoy, 1999: 89) 

Excesso de tecnologia provoca confusão no consumidor?

Diz este artigo da Red Herring («Digital Radio Gets Fuzzy», March 2, 2006):

«As radio providers like XM and Sirius battle for control of car dashboards, new digital radio standards are likely to increase competition and confuse consumers, a study released Thursday said. North Americans will soon have the choice among XM, Sirius, and HD Radio receivers, said Frank Viquez, director of transportation research at ABI Research, which conducted the study. What’s more, they will also soon be offered multimedia broadcasting services like Qualcomm's MediaFLO service and Crown Castle’s Modeo digital video broadcasting on handsets service.»

(consequência pós-segundo choque...)

O problema da rádio é falta de RP...

«Is radio in trouble?
"No and balderdash," Ed Christian said in response to his own question on Saga Communication’s conference call. He says terrestrial radio needs better PR to counter the barrage from satellite radio - - and insists terrestrial stations still have a good story to tell. "Give us some credit," he said to Wall Street. Christian pointed to ratings gains for Saga stations in many markets from the Fall Arbitron book. But he doesn’t deny that radio has some problems that it needs to deal with. As an industry, Christian said radio failed to anticipate that some traditional ad categories would ever fade - - as is obviously happening right now with auto - - and didn’t do enough to acquire new business. He also echoed concerns expressed last week by Radio One COO Mary Catherine Sneed about some radio companies going after market share, rather than upholding price discipline - - a short-term strategy with dire long-term consequences. But while 2006 is starting off rough, with most groups reporting soft ad demand for January and February, Christian says radio is still a good business. "We have, as an industry, caught a cold, but it is not the flu and we are certainly not suffering from H5N01 [bird flu]," Christian said.» (fonte RBR news,

Volume 23, Issue 42, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher, Wednesday Morning March 1st, 2006)

(3.2) «tal vez sus días estén contados»

«Al entrar en el nuevo milenio, la radiodifusión está generando más beneficios e ingresos que en cualquier otra época de su historia, aunque tal vez sus días estén contados. Pero quisiera aclarar esta aseveración. La programación transmitida por la radio seguirá existiendo, por lo menos en un futuro predecible, aunque el método o la manera principal de transmitida hasta sus oyentes cambiará debido a la banda ancha, a la fibra óptica y a las tecnologías por satél¡te. El propio Internet está revolucionando el mundo de la comunicación, lo que también incluye a la radio» (Michael C. Keith in Martinéz-Costa, 2001: 95)

O segundo choque é mais grave do que o primeiro

"Sin embargo el momento radiofónico actual es complejo como pocos en la historia del medio y requiere una abnegada e ingeniosa atención. Y si la circunstancia merece esmero, reflexión y vigilancia es porque la situación es mucho más peligrosa que la generada por la llegada de la televisión. Posiblemente este sea el conflicto más complejo de los vividos por la radio hasta el momento presente porque afecta a su propia raíz. A la radio y - no se olvide-, a los demás medios de comunicación" (Faus Belau in Martinéz-Costa, ed, 2001: 16)

 

Diminui o tempo de escuta da rádio (EUA)

dados importantes:

«According to a study conducted by Research Director, Inc., time spent listening to radio in the top 12 markets averaged nineteen hours and fifty-five minutes. This represents a 3.4% decline in the past three years.

Research Director President Charlie Sislen said of the study, “Much has changed with people’s entertainment choices. Three years ago people did not have access to iPods, MP3 players, or satellite radio. While we never like to see a decline, I feel that this minor drop over three years shows the true strength of radio.” » (Research Director Reports: Radio TSL Down In Past Three Years, Radio Ink, 14/2/06)

A rádio aproveita as novas tecnologias?

"Relativamente à rádio, tem-se observado um acentuado decréscimo da sua quota de publicidade desde meados de 2002. Esse declínio coincidiu com a propagação dos suportes on-line e obrigou a um reposicionamento estrutural estratégico. Neste sentido, a rádio, num claro exemplo de que a tecnologia digital, mais de que um concorrente directo de mercado, poderá funcionar como uma plataforma complementar, decidiu beneficiar de algumas das mais-valias proporcionadas pelas mesmas:

- Disponibilização de formas alternativas de consumo de rádio (o consumo de rádio no Reino Unido a partir das novas tecnologias aumentou 22% em 2004);

- Aumento do consumo de rádio no exterior das residências e dos carros;

- Atracção e fidelização dos consumidores mais jovens;

Em suma, o futuro da rádio afigura-se bem mais positivo do que há 4 anos atrás porque as tecnologias digitais criaram novas oportunidades de mercado e diversificaram a oferta das mesmas.»

("O investimento publicitário global por suporte de comunicação", Obercom, (E.P) 10-02-2006)

Isto é o segundo choque

"The attack is arriving in the form of satellite radio and its portable receivers, online niche and genre "broadcasts" from music services (MSN, Real, Launch), and even homegrown podcasts" ("Everything kills the radio star", PC Mag, 14/9/05, por Lance Ulanoff)

As programações das rádios não são estimulantes

"La radio se vio forzada a achicar sus estudios, a callal’ sus orquestas, a despedir sus compañías teatrales. Vio apagarse su época de oro; adiós radioteatro, adiós ’mamarrachito mío’, adiós suspenso. Todo quedó reducido a música y noticias. Y un nuevo vestuario: objetividad, seriedad, prisa. Porque dentro del botín resignó su bien más preciado: la imaginación. Olvidando que el hombre tuvo la literatura, y aún antes los juegos y las plantas mágicas, para tener pantallas propias en la cabeza; nadie comenzó a soñar con los rayos catódicos" (Alejandro Luna, "La gran pantalla a punto de enmudecer?", revista Códigos, nº 2, General Roca, 1989, apud Haye, 1995: 23)

 

Mais uma ideia sobre o segundo choque

«Radio has been declared dead many times, especially with the rise of the internet. When streaming audio became practical in the late 90s it was often declared that every person with a ‘net connection would have her own station. The birth of satellite radio, with hundreds of channels of narrowcasted nationwide channels, brought more exclamations. In the last eighteen months podcasting has been the latest rhetorical nail in radio’s coffin, joining ‘net radio’s promise of “every person a broadcaster” with the multi-channel appeal of satellite radio. But radio isn’t dead. Rather, it’s strangely revitalized. The death of radio is really the death of one dominant mode of radio — commercial music radio.»

«Podcasting and the revitalization of radio», Mediageek, Wed 4 Jan 2006

Erosão nas audiências da rádio (EUA) invertida?

Um estudo acabado de divulgar diz que a erosão das sondagens de rádio norte-americana (convencional) detectada no ano passado estará a ser invertida:

"The Center for Media Research reports that according to initial results from a continuing Audience Attrition project by Bridge Ratings & Research, audience erosion from terrestrial radio – due to less time spent with AM/FM radio and more time spent with a variety of digital media, including MP3 players, iPods, Internet radio, and satellite radio – has returned somewhat in the 4th quarter of 2005.

The report finds that AM/FM radio listening is returning to former high-water marks as a result of both the medium’s lower commercial load policies and a growing segment of MP3 users who after some time immersed in the new technology, become fatigued and return to terrestrial radio among other sources of audio entertainment.

Other updated findings include:

-- Terrestrial audience erosion to alternative audio entertainment continues to occur in young demographics though at a slower rate than seen previously in 2005

-- Erosion rate halted for the time being among the 25+ age group.

-- MP3 device usage can consume as much as 80% of a radio user’s audio entertainment during initial ownership weeks and months. This number tends to be generally lower among 30+ women and 35+ men

-- Time spent with MP3 players has increased among 12-24 year old males faster than with females as 2005 progresses as time spent with Internet radio has slowed

-- Where a 15% decrease in terrestrial radio use by 12-24 year olds was reported for Q3 2005 Vs Q3 2004, by Q4 2005 use had increased by two quarter hours per week per person resulting in only a 4% increase when compared with Q4 2004

-- Listening to traditional radio by Adults 25-49 has risen from 65 quarter hours a week (Q4 2004) to 67 "

fonte: "Turnaround Seen In Terrestrial Radio"

Perspectivas para 2006 (a internet)

«RADIO’S BIGGEST CHALLENGE in 2006 could be coping with the expanding definition of radio. As far as media buyers and advertisers are concerned, and for that matter the consumer, radio is no longer just AM and FM. It’s also Internet radio and satellite radio. And while satellite radio’s 9 million subscribers and Internet radio’s 20 million weekly listeners are dwarfed by traditional radio’s 230 million weekly listeners, the impact of these new media on the consumer cannot be ignored. According to a focus group study conducted last fall by Jacobs Media, consumers aged 18-34 consider radio as “anything with a DJ.” Young listeners say they find traditional radio stale. On the flip side, they don’t think they ought to pay for radio.

“Radio isn’t a growth medium. It’s misunderstood right now, even among its owners,” said Maribeth Papuga, senior vp and director of local broadcast for MediaVest, at the recent UBS media conference. In many ways, traditional radio is coping with the fundamental shift in consumer choices by embracing a multiplatform radio model, a trend that is likely to accelerate this year. The nation’s largest radio companies, Clear  Channel and CBS Radio (formerly Infinity Broadcasting), took critical steps in 2005 to leverage their content onto the Internet, whether through streaming or offering content for downloading. The hope is that in 2006, those baby steps will lead to a solid foundation for a new, growing and lucrative business.»

excerto do Forecast 2006, do Mediaweek, http://mediaweek.com/mediaweek/images/pdf/Forecast.pdf

Estagnação tecnológica

A crise que a rádio vive nos últimos anos também é resultado da falta de evolução tecnológica. A rádio, que sempre viveu associada aos desenvolvimentos tecnológicos, às pequenas grandes invenções que a fizeram sobreviver noutras décadas, não conhece desde 1960, data em que o FM estéreo foi testado pela primeira vez (na KDKA-FM de Pittsburgh), qualquer inovação significativa. São quase 40 anos de estagnação no que diz respeito à tecnologia intrínseca que serve a difusão hertziana (porque a internet é outro pressuposto).

Uma consulta à lista "Broadcast History Timeline" mostra isso mesmo...

Por que é que a rádio via satélite é uma resposta

A rádio via satélite surge como oportunidade de negócio mas também como resposta à estagnação manifestada pela rádio hertziana. Alguns excertos do artigo Can Digital Kill the Radio Star? da Wired (2000-07-08).

"Traditional radio isn't doing the job in servicing customers," said William Kidd, satellite analyst at investment firm C.E. Unterberg, Towbin. Kidd said 80 percent of all listening today in the car is radio, and that the industry -- which hasn't seen substantial change since FM was invented more than 60 years ago -- is ripe for innovation. "It's hard to imagine that the status quo will be preserved," Kidd said.(...)

The broadcasters believe that customers will leap at the chance to pay for quality radio for the same reason cable TV has proven a success: better variety and fewer commercials. Radio listeners frustrated by the exclusionary and repetitive practices of the FM stations that have driven listeners to online services will identify with their specialty channels.

Former DJ Tom Versen, Sirius's director of production and creative services, said traditional radio only plays one-third of the music released each year. He said ad-supported radio has stagnated towards repeating old standards instead of taking chances on new content. "If I hear 'Dust in the Wind' one more time, I'm going to run my car off the road," Versen said. "

Ainda há quem não perceba o segundo choque (e tenha a cabeça na areia)...

Um excerto deste artigo "Free Radio Biz Tunes Out Sat Gains", Dec. 22, 2005, By Alex Woodson and Georg Szalai, The Hollywood Reporter
 

"Smulyan also invoked an old rule in the media industry that says newer forms of media rarely fully replace older ones. "The iPod of today was the CD five years ago and the cassette 15 years ago and the A-track 20 years ago and the citizen’s band radio 30 years ago," he said. "The reality is people have fragmentation, but we haven’t seen anything replace this particular radio experience."

Dickey also suggested that despite good marketing, satellite radio has little to differentiate itself from terrestrial radio. "We’re in the content business, and the only real content that they have is Howard Stern," he said. "They don’t have any real exclusive content."

Despite all the defense talk, Smulyan did agree that traditional radio players have room to improve performance in various areas. They particularly must focus more on providing compelling content, he argued. "We have done some things, as an industry, that have not been productive," he said. "I don’t think we’ve marketed the industry too well. I think our product’s been more stale. ... I think that we’ve over-researched ourselves."

O comentário de harry Helms: "Terrestrial radio executives are increasingly acting like American auto executives in the 1970s (and in the 1980s, 1990s, and still today, come to think of it): their industry problems are due to  flawed customer perceptions, negative press coverage, unfavorable government regulations, or anything/everything ad infinitum except the possibility their product isn't what customers want. "