Bolsa EUA pouco optimista para com a rádio

«Analyst sees 2006 as tough year for radio
The quarterly round of radio company conference calls is complete, and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes didn’t find much that sounded encouraging for 2006. "Subpar fundamentals and uncompelling valuations keep us on radio’s sidelines, as stronger pricing power is needed to lift revenue growth, investor perception, and valuations. Of terrestrial radio operators, we rate only Clear Channel outperform, on superior fundamentals and discount valuation," he told investors. Wienkes sees five challenges facing radio in 2006. After Clear Channel’s Less is More initiative cut inventories over the course of 2005 - - Wienkes thinks by 1% industry-wide - - he expects overall spotloads to be flat in 2006. With increasing competition from iPods and other "new media" options, he’s looking for a 2% audience erosion this year. Given radio’s "anemic revenue growth," the analyst thinks pricing increases will be held to 3% in 2006. On the M&A front, he says to look for only a few private groups to sell - - with the obvious big exception of Univision. Radio valuations on Wall Street, Wienkes says, "seem fair, but not compelling, and they lack visible catalysts." Noting that the current consensus of Wall Street analysts is that radio revenues will grow 2% this year, the Goldman Sachs analyst thinks even that is too high. He’s looking for only 1%.»

 

fonte: RBR Newsletter, Volume 23, Issue 52, Jim Carnegie, 15/3/06)

 

Uma previsão pouco favorável para o HD

«The radio research firm projects in its latest report that HD receivers will be in the hands of 1.06 million consumers by the end of 2007, 2.0 million by the end of 2008 and 8.84 million by the end of 2010. Meanwhile, Bridge predicts that XM Satellite Radio will grow to 9.0 million subscribers by the end of 2006 as rival Sirius grows to about 6 million subscribers over the same period. The study comes as part of Bridge’s ongoing review and analysis of audience attrition of traditional radio and subscriber and user growth of alternative digital media.»

Fonte: «Bridge Ratings: HD Radio To Reach 1 Million By End Of ’07», 14/3/06, Brida Connolly, R&R

iPod reina nos EUA, mas na Ásia nem tanto

«The iPod has been a runaway success in the United States, though the story is a bit mixed globally. Steve Jobs recently claimed a healthy 78 percent of the US-based market during the current quarter, though overseas markets have been less receptive. During a Monday SXSW panel on consumer digital behavior, Yahoo vice president of Corporate and Sales Research Michele Madansky pointed to an entirely different consumer in Asia. "The brand is far less important," Madansky said in reference to the portable MP3 market. That highlights an incredibly well-executed iPod marketing campaign in the United States, according to the Yahoo research executive.

The cult of iPod is a dominant force among US consumers, and one that Apple cultivates well. But analysts also point to excellent device functionality as a major success contributor, typified by a smooth iTunes+iPod connection. And globally, the picture is actually solid overall. iPod market share has been pegged at about 55 percent worldwide, though figures differ. In Asia, the iPod has caught fire in Japan, though other markets are far less hooked. Those countries offer the greatest challenge to Apple moving forward. Meanwhile, the mobile phone remains an inseparable appendage for most Asian consumers, and that is already having an impact on the portable MP3 market. Most recently, Samsung introduced an 8GB, HDD-based phone, offering a glimpse at next-generation storage and convergence possibilities» (fonte: Digital, Music News, iPod Dominates in US, Asian Markets Harder to Crack, 14/3/06).

Os prazos para o PPM

«Arbitron said the conversion from its current paper-based diary method would begin with Houston in July, with plans to convert the top 10 radio markets by the fall of 2008 and the top 50 within three years following that. ». No entanto, «To date, only two broadcasters - Spanish Broadcasting and Beasley Broadcasting - have committed to its use, even though most of Madison Avenue's biggest radio buyers have endorsed the service».

Além disso: «Some influential radio broadcasters, especially, Clear Channel Communications, have been fishing for an alternative to the PPM. Clear Channel recently issued a request for proposals for a new, state-of-the-art electronic radio audience measurement system, and last week narrowed the list of candidates to three finalists including Arbitron, Mediamark Research Inc. and The Media Audit, all of whom have some form of passive radio audience measurement. The Clear Channel-lead initiative, which includes Madison Avenue executives, is expected to make a final selection and begin a field test soon».

Fonte: «Arbitron Begins Portable People Meter Rollout», Media Daily News, Joe Mandese, Tuesday, Mar 14, 2006 8:01 AM EST

(ACT) MediaAudit ataca PPM com o seu telemóvel

«As their system is being tested in England, the Media Audit is now requesting permission from Houston radio station owners to encode their signals in order to conduct a test of their Smart Cell Phone system of electronic media measurement.»

Mais: «Radio One Houston properties are the first Houston stations to agree to encode their signals as part of a series of tests The Media Audit will be conducting with its Smart Cell Phone media monitor (...). Abernethy said, "It is well recognized that the radio industry needs to move to an electronic measurement. I appreciate the efforts that Arbitron has put into testing its proposed solution. At the same time, we need more information and more ways to sell the advertising strengths of radio. The Media Audit/Ipsos solution addresses this need for more information as it includes multiple media platforms as well as retail information. I am encouraged with The Media Audit/Ipsos Smart Cell Phone solution as it addresses many concerns that we and others in the industry share about the potential flaws in electronic measurement." (Radio Ink, «Radio One Agrees To Encode Houston Stations For Smart Cell Phone Media Measurement Testing»).

Why Smart Cell Phones are a Better Media Measuring Device

The cell phone is an integral part of people's daily lives, which makes it the ideal mode for passively monitoring activities from media exposure to retail activity. Our proposed passive measurement system incorporates the latest technology into smart phones for measuring radio, television, radio and television streaming via the internet, cable, satellite television, billboards and other out-of-home media.

Cell phones are a part of our culture. We take them everywhere we go. A popular online web site notes, "With high levels of mobile telephone penetration, a mobile culture has evolved, where the cell phone becomes a key social tool." Cell phones have been adopted faster than any other consumer product or service from its inception to its penetration in the market. In less than twenty years, mobile phones have gone from being rare and expensive pieces of equipment used by businesses to a pervasive low-cost personal item.

Over the past ten years, the number of Americans carrying a cell phone has increased by 500 percent for an estimated 200 million people. Based on this estimate, 70% of Americans have a cell phone. In addition, a recent NPD survey shows Smart Phone penetration up seven percent during the third quarter of 2005.

Using a smart phone that carries specially developed software from Ipsos, this solution offers a number of unique advantages over other proposed media measurement devices:

- The cell phone is a familiar device. It is more likely that respondents will carry around a cell phone than other types of proposed meter devices.
- Smart Phones can continue to monitor media exposure in places where users would be required to turn their cell phones off. Users can put them on "quiet mode" wherein the phone won't ring but can be used for other functions that includes the ability to monitor media exposure. The "always on" feature will result in greater accuracy in the data.
- Finally, cell phones are gaining use for playing music, audio and video downloading, playing interactive games, and even conducting credit card transactions.
- Continuing advances in cell phone technology and increases in usage underscores why The Media Audit/Ipsos Smart Phone will be able to measure radio audiences that a pager type meter will not be able to measure.» (fonte: Radio Marketing Nexus, Audience Measurement by Smart Phone?, Posted by Mark Ramsey on February 23, 2006)

(acT) Fraude nas audiências espanholas; mais cedo ou mais tarde...

A empresa que realiza as audiências em Espanha comunicou que suspendeu o processo, depois de ter encontrado indícios de fraude. A Cadena COPE reagiu, dizendo ter realizado uma investigação que o prova...

«The only details revealed are buried in careful language, the lawyers obviously consulted. AIMC “detected the existence of false interviewers within the field-work groups attempting to manipulate the survey data.”  The AIMC Board, said the release, continues to investigate. Pending that, the first survey wave (January through March) might be called off. Wednesday night, early by Spanish custom but yet quite dark, Radio COPE’s Lantern program announced an investigation by its journalists, led by sports director Jose Antonio Abellán, had been conducted to “demonstrate fraud” within the EGM. The network had, by its own admission, infiltrated its “journalists” into the field-work groups.»

Mais: «Madrid, 10 de Marzo de 2006. La Junta Directiva de la Asociación para la Investigación de los Medios de Comunicación (AIMC), responsable de la realización del Estudio General de Medios (EGM) en su reunión de hoy 10 de marzo de 2006, ha decidido por unanimidad incoar expediente de sanción a la Cadena COPE con propuesta de expulsión por faltas muy graves atendiendo a lo indicado en los estatutos de la asociación».

«La Cadena COPE pide, a la luz de los resultados de este trabajo de investigación, que se ponga en marcha de forma inmediata una auditoria sobre el sistema de medición de las audiencias que utiliza el EGM por el bien de las empresas, de los anunciantes y de la audiencia que tiene la radio española»

Chantler, Paul e Harris, Sim, Radiojornalismo, Summus, São Paulo, 1998

O segundo choque chegou sem avisar

Uma das características do segundo choque é que ele parece ter chegado sem aviso; pelo menos é o que se pode concluir de um conjunto de declarações feitas na década de 90 dando conta da satisfação e da saúde do meio. Estariam distraídos? Ou apenas adormecidos todos aqueles que, até esse altura, se contentavam em glorificar a sobrevivência da rádio? Um exemplo:

«Quando a televisão tornou-se popular, na década de 1950, surgiram previsões anunciando a morte do rádio. Passados mais de quarenta anos, o rádio é, hoje, mais empolgante e diversificado do que antes. A rádio local está crescendo muito rapidamente em diversas áreas do Reino Unido, que podem agora ter a oportunidade de desfrutar de uma ampla escolha de estilos e formatos radiofônicos. E milhões de pessoas podem buscar um conjunto de notícias de seu interesse através do rádio» (Chantler, Paul e Harris, Sim, Radiojornalismo, Summus, São Paulo, 1998, pág 15).

 

»O satélite vai fazer ao FM o que o FM fez ao AM»

"The similarities between radio in the seventies and what we're trying to do with satellite radio are unbelievable," says Abrams. "What was happening with AM versus FM back then - the migration of listeners from the AM dial to the FM dial - is exactly like what will happen in the year 2000. The headline will read 'XM Does to FM What FM Did to AM.' I think that's a pretty powerful statement (...)" (Lee Abrams, director de programas da XM).

(excertos de um memo interno enviado por lee Abrams em Janeiro de 1999)

«In 2000, FM Radio...

- Is not addressing most of the mass-appeal music styles (hard rock, jazz, reggae); XM will embrace these styles.

- FM no longer meets the audio standard for music, which has progressed from from stereo to digital; XM will deliver digital quality.

- FM doesn't play anything other than the hit single from any given artist; XM will go deep into a CD.

- FM doesn't reflect the look of the times. Its logos are too corporate and DJ look tired; XM will look, feel, and breathe modern culture in every way.

- FM is not part of the technological retooling; XM is an integral part of the digitizing of America.

- FM is making money, but listeners are suffering; XM will cash in simply by pleasing and exciting listeners.

- FM Sounds hokey and cliché; XM will be real, honest, and relatable.»

(McCoy, 1999: 149/150)  

Explicações para o sucesso de H Stern

«"I’ve competed against Stern in New York," Jay Thomas says. "l think Stern is a phenomenon. He definitely knows what today’s listeners want to hear. He gets personal-straight to your sex life. If I was on the radio today, I couldn’t beat him. You can’t battle that."  (McCoy, 1999: 76)

Uma previsão, de 97, sobre o futuro da rádio

Excerto da intervenção de Bill Kennard (presidente da FCC) no congresso dos EUA sobre o futuro da rádio:

«The radio industry is robust and thriving and the prospects for future growth are excelent. Revenues in 1997 were over $13 billion and radio stocks have seen record growth. Radio continues to connect people to their communities, perhaps more than any other medium. Just as the advent of cable television, direct broadcast salellites, and satellite radio did not adversely affect the success of radio, so is the fact that broadband Internet audio distribution will not kill free over-the-air radio broadcasting either. Radio remains unique as a local communications service, one that is the lifeblood of local information in all our communities and in our culture. To this day, radio stations provide local communities with vital local news and information -weather and traffic reports, agricultural forecasts, and school closings. Radio will continue to play a vital  and profitable role in our nation's communities» (McCoy, 1999: 22/23).

Ouvinte ou cliente? Cliente...

«I would prefer that the industry use the word customer, as opposed to listener, because customer has character; it's friendlier, warmer, and more personal. A customer is treated like a unique person. Smart businesspeople bend over backwards trying to keep their promises to their customers. On the other hand, the word listener has a cold, statistical, feel to it» (McCoy, 1999:3)

A rádio nos EUA sem talento

«(...) the search for great radio talent around the country slowed. The majority of radio stations became stripped of personality - and personalities. The human touch was gone. In its place was the safe, predictable sound of radio-by-the-numbers. Many operators embraced this trend because it was cost-efficient. It offered the option of not paying big money for some zany morning man or wild night jock, because the research indicated that all they had to do was play the best-testing records and shut the air talent up" (McCoy, 1999:2).

«Buzz Bennett: Everybody today is surviving on research. People aren’t using their instincts. There’s no instinctual movement; it’s all rational movement, which is okay in a noncreative industry, but in radio, it takes people who want to drive themselves to create something new» (McCoy, 1999: 89) 

McCoy, Quincy, No Static, A Guide to Creative Radio Programming, Backbeat Books, São Francisco, 1999

Mais publicidade não leva a mudar de estação?

Pelo menos é que diz este estudo: «higher volumes of advertising on radio, in longer breaks or more frequent breaks, do not in themselves impact on the likelihood to switch».

O sistema Radiocontrol (GfK)

O grupo GfK tinha vários sistemas de medição electrónica, desde o sistema Eurisko, passando pelos relógio "radiocontrol" e "mediawatch".

Sobre o Radiocontrol, sabe-se que: «has been used in the UK for measurement of exposure to radio and TV by the Wireless Group since 2003. In the UK and across Europe, the technology has been used to measure in-home and out-of-home TV viewing of ‘hard to reach’ groups, and for cross media research on behalf of leading media agencies and international media owners.» De acordo com os seus responsáveis, «RADIOCONTROL is the electronic audience measurement system developed by Telecontrol, part of the GfK Group. RADIOCONTROL is a passive, electronic audience measurement device built into a wristwatch. Respondents are typically asked to wear the watch for a week during which time a built-in microphone records a short, four-second sequence of sound during each minute of the surveyed week. These sounds are stored not as sound files, but in a heavily compressed, digitised format, representing no more than audio ‘fingerprints’ of the original files. At the end of the surveyed week, the data from the watches are downloaded, and these listening records matched to a set of audio samples of every TV station and radio station monitored in the survey. If an audio fingerprint stored on the watch during a particular minute matches the sound sample of a particular station during the same minute, we may infer that this watch was exposed to this station at this time. By matching the sound samples recorded each minute by each watch to the stations’ broadcast output, it is possible to build up a minute-by-minute record of each respondent’s TV and radio listening. After extensive laboratory and field tests, the technology has been used in the national radio audience measurement system in Switzerland since 2000. In Great Britain, the system has been tested and trialled since 2001. In March 2003, The Wireless Group commissioned GfK to launch a continuous national survey of viewing and listening using RADIOCONTROL, from which the data for this analysis are drawn».

Estará o PPM adaptado à realidade da nova rádio?

A rádio do futuro terá ainda mais mobilidade, será mais portátil mas mais difusa. Não haverá um aparelho chamado "rádio" e as (novas) empresas de rádio serão fornecedores de conteúdos audio (não apenas).

Neste cenário em que o webcasting terá prevalência, em que a rádio chegará por todos os lados e não apenas pelo ar - como agora - será que o PPM (e os aparelhos de medição electrónica passiva em geral) está adaptado às novas circunstâncias? Ou será que o investimento brutal que será preciso fazer, por exemplo nos EUA, se mostrará desajustado alguns anos depois (um pouco como o DAB?)?

A questão é que, como mostra este texto, «As we saw forty years ago, a period of change for the medium can precipitate a change in measurement» (North, Nick e van Meurs, Lex,  «Radio Zapping», ESOMAR/ARF WAM, June 2004). Nesse sentido, a medição electrónica, tal como a conhecemos agora, não servirá para a nova realidade que se avizinha...

A pré-história da medição electrónica, 40 anos antes

«The minute-by-minute, mechanical measurement of radio audiences was first introduced in 1942. AC Nielsen’s Audimeter registered each movement of the radio tuning dial with the scratch of a stylus on a roll of paper tape, storing the information in a cartridge, which at the end of each survey period was mailed back to the company for analysis. From 1950 until 1963, the Audimeter-based Nielsen Radio Index served the US radio industry as its official currency. Technological change and legislative action brought about its demise:

The sales of new, portable transistor radios starting in the late 1950s and the advent of stereo FM broadcasting in 1963, adding to the already growing number of channels that could be received, undermined the practicability of the system;

In the same year, the radio ratings industry was in the dock, with a Congressional Hearing concluding that, based as they were on statistical estimates, all ratings were “inherently imperfect”.

Nielsen abandoned minute-by-minute measurement of radio, and the industry moved to a diary-based survey of radio audiences – an established methodology which was not without criticism. As one contemporary commentator noted in 1954: “…the placing of diaries can be a haphazard method scientifically, since many people refuse to accept them, which could throw an entire sample out of kilter. Also, there is a tendency to neglect filling out the diary until the last day of the week. Here, too, memory is unreliable and people will put down anything that comes into their heads—including, occasionally, shows which haven’t been on the air for years... As comedian Herb Shriner put it, “If you stop a woman leaving a supermarket and ask her to tell you everything she just bought, she won’t be able to. So how can she be expected to remember what she listened to a week ago?” Bill Davidson, “Who Knows Who’s on Top,” Collier’s, 29 October 1954.»

North, Nick e van Meurs, Lex,  «Radio Zapping», ESOMAR/ARF WAM, June 2004.

(obrigado Jorge)

Quando o Myspace servir melhor do que o FM...

"A adesão em massa de músicos a lugares como o Myspace, dando música a ouvir, ou mesmo oferecendo ficheiros mp3, mostra-se cada vez mais capaz de cativar público que o velho FM", diz Nuno Galopim, no texto de abertura de um dossier sobre a música na internet (suplemento «6ª», DN, 10/3/06)

ALguns excertos que mostram que a rádio, a rádio musical, está e vai perder influência não apenas do ponto de vista de quem está interessado em promover-se (os músicos e as editoras) mas também de quem está interessado em conhecer - nesse sentido, para que servirá a rádio musical?

»Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not, dos Arctic Monkeys, é a estreia discográfica com o maior sucesso de sempre no mercado blitânico. Na primeira semana, o álbum atingiu a generosa marca de 360 mil cópias vendidas, mantendo oscArctic Monkeys nas primeiras páginas da imprensa musical britânica e exportando a sua música para os EUA com relativo sucesso. Os Arctic Monkeys apostaram numa nova forma de divulgação. Em cada uma das actuações, a banda distribuia, gratuitamente, uma gravação dos seus temas e encorajava todos os presentes a fazer circular o disco pela Internet. Sucesso garantido muito antes de qualquer edição oficial, manobra de marketing ou investimento multinacional. (...) Depois de anos de namoros ilegais, de acções judiciais e proibições, os músicos tornaram-se eles próprios utilizadores do ciberespaço e assumiram, sem preconceitos, as vantagens que o meio oferece em tempos de incerteza, relativamente ao futuro da indústria discográfica. (...) O "método" mais recente é a utilização da Rede como forma de interacção com um público que os músicos ainda não conhecem, mas que com ele estabelecem uma relação de superior proximidade. O Myspace.com lidera este fenómeno, uma espécie de fórum em que cada utilizador registado pode dar-se a conhecer como bem entender, utilizando fotos, textos ou, no caso dos músicos, canções. São já muitos os que por ali se fixam, revelando temas, recolhendo opiniões e divulgando notícias ou concertos. O feedback é imediato e global"». («Música com rede», pág 6, TP)

«Antes de tudo, está alojado em www.myspace.com acessível a qualquer intemauta, até por não se tratar de um domínio exclusivamente dedicadoà música. O princípio passa por estabelecer uma rede de amigos, através de uma comunidade pessoal onde é possível enviar mensagens privadas, deixar comentários ou adicionar outras pessoas. Na "secção" de música, passa-se exactamente o mesmo, com a possibilidale das bandas poderem colocar quatro mp3, para audição, ou descarga, actualizar notícias e contar um pouco da sua história. Simples e prático, num meio termo entre site e blogue. No Myspace estão representados alguns dos majores nomes da actualidade, embora por vezes se tratem de criações de fãs. Mas há excepções; o Myspace dos Duran Duran é oficial e distingue-se pelos inéditos colocados não só na página principal como em subpáginas. Se exceptuarmos bandas consagradas, o número de grupos novos que se regista neste domínio é ainda maior» («Pessoal e transmissível, pág 7, DP).

Tantas funcionalidades - só falta a rádio FM!

«German company AVM just announced their new FRITZ! Mini. This handheld device combines a cordless phone and music player with an information service allowing you to view news, weather, and sports reports on the color display. Not good enough, well the handset will also alert you to incoming emails and text messages though how they accomplish the latter is a bit unclear. See, the 802.11g WiFi enabled FRITZ!Box is the key, it acts as a base station and information hub for the Mini by streaming music, information, and both VoIP or fixed-line calls directly to the handset. It doesn’t appear though, that the !Box packs any storage it’s own damned self, but you can slip in a Memory Stick or connect any MP3 player with USB support for playback to the Mini.»

fonte: Engadget, FRITZ! Mini: WiFi! phone, MP3! player, and! more, Posted Mar 10th 2006 9:27AM by Thomas Ricker 

Comentário: é possivel receber rádio via streaming.