O futuro da rádio

«(...) el debate acerca del destino de la radio ha tenido un gran número de vicisitudes y no se puede saber lo que en un futuro deparará»

(Carlos Ortiz de Landázuri in Martinéz-Costa, 2001: 182)

«Durante las últimas dos décadas muchos profesionales, expertos y estudiosos, hemos construido la prognosis sobre el futuro inmediato de la radio, a base de unos cuantos tópicos y bastantes lugares comunes. Los cambios anunciados los hemos fundamentado en la potencialidad de las nuevas tecnologías de producción y de difusión. Ya podemos decir que esta apuesta con el tiempo ha resultado bastante equívoca y ello por muchas razones. En primer lugar, porque la experiencia enseña que la apropiación social de las tecnologías se acostumbra a realizar de manera bastante diferente a como es concebida por aquellos que simplemente basan su análisis en la bondad intrínseca de las mismas. En segundo lugar, porque existen una serie de factores contextuales en torno a la radio digital que están evolucionando a un ritmo bastante diferente al esperado. Podemos decir que hemos construido unos escenarios de futuro que, visto lo visto, se alejan progresivamente de cualquier realidad plausible a medio plazo».

Marti y Marty in Martinéz-Costa, 2001: 187 

As novas tecnologias e a interacção

«Para McQuail es evidente que la aparición de las nuevas tecnologías han hecho posible la aparición de nuevas formas de interacción radiofónica hasta ahora desconocidas»

Carlos Ortiz de Landázuri in Martinéz-Costa, 2001: 172

(introdução: quais são as consequências do aparecimento das novas tecnologias? Elas não se limitam a garantir que a rádio sobreviva - ou não -; também têm consequências ao nível da programação e do comportamento do público)

Os nichos e a rádio

Rugby Fm, 107.1 FM

Futuro promissor para o podcasting

«Podcasting has a long ways to go before it becomes a mainstream medium, but is poised to grow exponentially through the end of the current decade and will increasingly become an attractive outlet for advertisers, says a new report from eMarketer.

By 2008, podcast advertising should reach $150 million, approaching $300 million by 2010, according to the report.

Currently, despite all the hype surrounding the nascent medium, eMarketer estimates that just 3 million Americans are active podcast listeners, and a total of 10 million people have ever downloaded a podcast to date.

And advertising on podcasts, "is in its infancy to put it mildly," says Mike Chapman, eMarketer editorial director, who authored the report. "Podcasting is not set to become a new mass-market venue, at least for the next half decade. By way of comparison, US broadcast radio still reaches close to 200 million Americans," he said.

However, the number of podcast listeners is expected to skyrocket over the next four years, reaching 50 million total listeners by 2010, with 15 million or so listeners being described as active - i.e. downloading podcasts on a weekly basis.

Part of the rationale behind these growth estimates is rapid adoption seen for the medium just in the past couple of years - as total listening levels rise by 400 percent since 2004.

"The total audience for podcasts has shown meteoric growth, particularly in the US," said Chapman. "The active listening audience is much smaller, but it is still set to grow rapidly".

(fonte: Study: Podcasting to Grow Ads, Mike Shields, FEBRUARY 28, 2006)

Cidades wi-fi

Filadélfia:

«From the San Jose Mercury News: "Philadelphia on Wednesday announced details of its deal with EarthLink Inc. for the construction  of a high-speed wireless network that will span the city, including provisions for EarthLink to pay for computers, training, and subsidize Internet access for low-income households...

"The 135-square-mile network is expected to be completed next spring. The contracts call for EarthLink to rent space on 4,000 city light posts for its equipment, and pay the city $74 annually per light post — for a total of nearly $300,000 a year. EarthLink also agreed to give Wireless Philadelphia 5% of its access revenue.»

HD interfere com a transmissão AM?

«WSJ Reports on AM IBOC Interference

AM interference from digital radio is in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that some AMs that have elected to remain analog are experiencing adjacent-channel interference from neighboring AMs that have gone digital.

Anecdotally, reports of such interference on AM from new digital signals have been circulating in the industry for some time and we've reported on those.

The WSJ article cites a listener in Elkridge, Md., who has had trouble tuning into WTRI(AM), 1520 kHz, since WTOP, at 1500 kHz in Washington, went HD Radio about a year ago.

In most cases, the interference is confined outside the FCC-protected coverage area, the account reports, agreeing with NRSC sources, quoted here in the past, who have tested the Ibiquity system. They and the FCC have known there would be some interference caused by IBOC and have maintained the levels would be acceptable.

FCC Audio Division Chief Peter Doyle is quoted by the Journal as explaining that broadcasters chose to go digital with Ibiquity's technology because it doesn't require new spectrum and that the advantages more than outweigh the shortcomings. Adding digital service is one way to combat the problem, although some small stations can't afford the cost. »

(fonte: «WSJ Reports on AM IBOC Interference», Date posted: 2006-03-02)

Mais um que acha que o futuro da rádio é o iPod...

«Radio may be going through a tough patch, but Regent CEO Bill Stakelin warned Wall Street analysts not to write off the sector - - or his company. He pointed to improving ad sales in several Regent markets. And he said there are exciting things happening for the radio industry. Stakelin said it is exciting that Apple's new iPod comes with an FM receiver included and exciting that Motorola's newest cell phone comes with an FM radio included. So, Regent will continue to work on building its business. However, he warned, "We are always at the mercy of our dumbest competitor."»
(fonte: «Stakelin still sees exciting things for radio», RBRepaper, Volume 23, Issue 44, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher, Friday Morning March 3rd, 2006)

 

Excesso de tecnologia provoca confusão no consumidor?

Diz este artigo da Red Herring («Digital Radio Gets Fuzzy», March 2, 2006):

«As radio providers like XM and Sirius battle for control of car dashboards, new digital radio standards are likely to increase competition and confuse consumers, a study released Thursday said. North Americans will soon have the choice among XM, Sirius, and HD Radio receivers, said Frank Viquez, director of transportation research at ABI Research, which conducted the study. What’s more, they will also soon be offered multimedia broadcasting services like Qualcomm's MediaFLO service and Crown Castle’s Modeo digital video broadcasting on handsets service.»

(consequência pós-segundo choque...)

Satélite na Europa? Mais cedo ou mais tarde...

mas isto é novo (para mim...)

«In Europe, three competing firms are vying to launch their own satellite radio services in the near future»

Os telefones não são para música ou televisão?

É o que diz este estudo: 

«Most Americans don't want to rock with their phones or squint at the latest episode of "Desperate Housewives" on a tiny screen, a new survey said Thursday. The poll tosses a wrench into cell phone providers' efforts to make broadband applications like music and video downloads attractive to consumers. The survey, conducted on behalf of Royal Bank of Canada's RBC Capital Markets research group, interviewed 1,001 Americans and found that three-fourths said they weren't interested in watching TV programs or movies on their handheld. Nearly as many -- 69 percent -- said they didn't care to listen to music using their cell phone. The reason, said RBC, was that people are spooked by the quick changes in mobile technology.

"Consumers are generally deterred when it comes to adopting the latest integrated mobile devices due to concerns of obsolescence," said Mark Sue, an RBC Capital Markets analyst, in a statement. "As integrated mobile devices become more complex, a significant time lag can persist before the trajectory of growth accelerates."

(...) RBC's survey mirrors prognostications late last year from Forrester Research that while cell phone companies were bullish on new services such as music downloads, users were bearish.»

(fonte: Techweb, Cell Phone Users Tune Out Music And Video: Survey Says, By Gregg Keizer, TechWeb News, 2/3/06

E se os operadores via satélite conseguirem frequências hertzianas?

«NAB president/CEO David Rehr accuses XM of wanting to purchase a block of WCS sepctrum in order to develop local, potentially terrestrial-based service. In its original mandate in granting licences to XM and Sirius, the FCC was careful to insist that the companies offer only nationwide broadcasting».
(fonte: NAB Chides FCC Over XM Interest In WCS, Billboard Radio Monitor, March 02, 2006, By Chuck Taylor)

Mas há rádios hertzianas a emitirem via satélite: «

One of America's pioneering AM broadcasters, station WLW in Cincinnati, is now being rebroadcast on XM channel 173. WLW becomes the first terrestrial station to be relayed fulltime via satellite.

Until the early 1980s, stations such as WLW were known as "clear channel" stations (not to be confused with "Clear Channel," the broadcasting giant!).  Such "clear channel" stations had, at most, only one or two other stations operating on their frequency at night,  used high power (50,000 watts), and usually non-directional antennas.  As a result, such stations could be heard throughout much of North America at night; stations such as WLW and WLS, 890, in Chicago could be regularly heard throughout the "lower 48" at night during the winter.

With increasing numbers of stations authorized to operate at night on AM, the "clear channel" era drew to a close by the late 1980s.  And now a pioneering "clear channel" broadcaster moves to the clearest channel of all, satellite.»

(fonte: WLW In Cincinnati Now On XM Channel 173)

As vantagens que o PPM trará à medição electrónica

 PPM will provide never-before-available insight into station switching patterns and loyalty. For example, 58% of P1s switch their P1 station at least once over an eight-week period.

* The diary-based methodology and PPM agree that P1 listening drives the vast majority of the AQH rating, even with the much larger cume shown in the PPM.

* The longitudinal nature of PPM will provide for more stable ratings on a period-by-period basis, leading to more accurate data to assess the impact of programming and marketing initiatives.

Among issues before the industry:

* Understanding the effect and impact on measurement error of smaller, longitudinal samples of consumers versus cross-sectional diarykeepers.

* How and if the industry will benchmark or adjust for the ratings differences created from the switch to PPM, where consumers are listening to more stations but less to any given station.

(excerto da notícia: «White Paper Heralds PPM Potential», Billboard Radio Monitor,March 01, 2006, By Chuck Taylor)

18-24 anos - os maiores consumidores de rádio

Dados interessantes sobre o consumo de rádio em Portugal (relativos a 2005):

«Os jovens até aos 35 anos são os maiores consumidores de rádio, segundo os dados do Bareme Rádio da Marktest, disponíveis no Anuário de Media & Publicidade 2005. 

Os dados globais do ano para o total rádio mostram uma curva ascendente dos 15 aos 24 anos e depois sempre descendente à medida que a idade aumenta. O grupo dos 18 aos 24 anos é o que apresenta maior audiência acumulada de véspera, de 74.6% - superior aos 58.9% da média do universo. A partir deste grupo etário, as audiências de rádio tendem a descer sempre, para atingir os 39.1% no grupo dos indivíduos com mais de 64 anos.»

(fonte: Os jovens e a rádio, Marktest.com, 2 Março 2006)

Por estas e por outras é que a rádio não sai da cepa torta...

Mais uma rádio, exactamente (?) igual a muitas outras que existem em Portugal:

«Apesar de ter o mesmo nome da emissora do Algarve, a Kiss FM Lisboa é autónoma, uma garantia dada ao Diário Económico por Jorge Correia, responsável por este novo projecto. “Tem algumas semelhanças com a rádio do Algarve, mas não é um retransmissor”.
A nova rádio da grande Lisboa pretende fazer parte do conceito internacional da marca Kiss, que já emite em Londres, Paris, São Paulo ou Tóquio, ou seja, “ter uma atitude mais activa para com os ouvintes e destinada a jovens adultos entre os 25 e os 40 anos”, explica Jorge Correia. Para garantir o sucesso deste objectivo, foi contratada uma empresa de consultoria europeia, que está a trabalhar em Portugal, para garantir a adequada formatação da rádio.
A Kiss FM Lisboa vai apostar em grandes êxitos da música nacional e internacional, com uma ‘playlist’ cuidadosamente estudada pela consultora, tal como na informação curta de hora a hora. Não admitindo com que estações pretende concorrer directamente, Jorge Correia acredita que a Kiss FM Lisboa pode “ganhar ouvintes a todas as rádios”. Para aumentar as audiências está a ser feito um grande investimento em campanhas de marketing. Já na próxima segunda-feira, quem estiver atento à emissão vai poder habilitar-se a uma viagem até Londres para ficar a conhecer o estádio do Chelsea.»

(fonte Diário Economico, Kiss FM em Lisboa com conceito internacional, Ana Filipa Amaro, 2/3/06)

O futuro da rádio está nos operadores públicos?

Excertos de um artigo do IHTribune, de 26/2/06:

« is the public broadcasters, like the British Broadcasting Corp., Radio France Internationale, Deutsche Welle or National Public Radio in the United States, that are flourishing by embracing new technology and strategies, while commercial radio operators are losing out to iPods, MP3 players and digital and satellite alternatives.

In Britain, the BBC has increased its market share to 55.1 percent, according to surveys, taking its lead over commercial radio to its widest point in three years. The same trends are taking hold in the Netherlands and in Germany.

(...) the public broadcaster Radio France Internationale revamped its news Web site, which includes podcasts and streaming. Podcasting allows listeners to subscribe to radio shows, with their music players downloading the latest episodes from the computer (...).

"Public broadcasters can have an advantage, as they can experiment and gain experience with new technology without the same financial constraints as commercial broadcasters," said Colin Donald, editor of Live Net Music, which tracks and lists the times when independent rock bands perform live through online radio.

(fonte: Seeking new wavelengths for radio, IHT, Doreen Carvajal , SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2006)

Nielsen desiste de levar o PPM para a televisão (EUA)

«Arbitron’s Portable People Meter (PPM) is going to be a radio only ratings system. Nielsen Media Research has decided not to exercise its option for a joint venture with Arbitron to deploy PPM commercially across the US. Nielsen says it may license PPM for use in measuring out-of-home viewing, but is evaluating other options for measuring in-home viewing. (...) "We recognize the appeal of a portable, single source measurement tool. While it may offer considerable benefits for radio research, we believe that a one-size-fits-all measurement system is not the approach for a currency in today’s complex television markets," said Nielsen Media Research CEO Susan Whiting. Nielsen said yesterday it had concerns about sample quality, including fault rates, said PPM’s definition of "audience" resulted in "large and still unexplained increases in television viewership," which it attributed to PPM being designed to measure radio rather than TV, said that costs would be high and it appeared that TV would be subsidizing radio measurement, and questioned how many TV companies really support moving to PPM measurement. At Arbitron, CEO Steve Morris said his company will focus on its "radio only" option for rolling out PPM. Without having Nielsen as a partner, he noted that Arbitron will have "complete flexibility" for where and how to roll out PPM - - not mentioning that it will mean that the cost will be higher for radio broadcasters. Morris will hold a conference call with Wall Street analysts this morning to discuss the financial ramifications of the Nielsen decision to walk away. Just two days from now (3/3), Clear Channel is due to announce whether it and the radio groups which have joined in evaluating proposals submitted under its RFP on passive electronic radio audience measurement have selected PPM or one of its competitors as the best system to serve the US radio industry.»
(fonte: «Nielsen walks; PPM to be radio only»)

O presidente da Arbitron: «“I’m obviously disappointed since we and they [Nielsen] have invested a lot of time and effort in looking for a way to make this work,”(...) “Looking forward,” Morris added, “we now feel we’re free to focus on radio’s needs without having to negotiate trade-offs to accommodate television requirements.”» (fonte Billboard Radio Monitor, Arbitron's Morris: 'We're Disappointed', March 02, 2006, By Mike Boyle)

 

Sobre a Eurisko, o EMM e o PPM

«(...) Eurisko Media Monitor (EMM) is adaptable for any customers needs. “It is not a watch, pen, necklace or mobile phone but it could be any of these.”

Electronic measurement as currently developed relies on two technical methods; watermarking and sound matching. Arbitron, developer of the Personal People Meter (PPM), uses a watermarking technique that embeds identifying codes in a stations transmitted signal. The Swiss-developed RadioControl device uses sound matching.  Eurisko settled on sound matching. Requiring stations to embed codes in their signals was considered “impractical,” according to Mezzasalma. “It gives power to the stations to discontinue the service,” he said. (...) According to Mezzasalma, who has carefully studied watermarking methods, the PPM requires five minutes to identify a signal. “Five minutes is a lot of time,” he said. “Television clients would find this unacceptable.”

Radio measurement is not uniformly organized throughout Europe. Where joint industry committees are in place, broadcasters – public and private – and the ad industry, decide what is measured and how it is done. More common are individual and competitive market research companies who determine methods and sell the service to broadcasters and media buyers. GfK and TNS Gallup provide media measurement services in several countries. GfK, the licensed provider of Radiocontrol, offers its service in the UK and has conducted tests for broadcaster groups in other countries.

(fonte: Italian Company Enters Radio Measurement Competition, Follow the Media, Michael Hedges February 1, 2005)

 

O podcasting é amigo da rádio?

«Podcasting is an exciting format, though industry-watchers may have difficulty separating the hype from the actual long-term potential. For the radio industry – including terrestrial, online, and satellite sectors – the format offers a powerful time-shifting component, but can it ever drain away listeners en masse? Recent data shows conflicting trends. "The total audience for podcasts has shown meteoric growth, particularly in the US," eMarketer director Mike Chapman commented, while noting that "the active listening audience is much smaller". eMarketer’s latest research predicts that the total podcast audience will grow to 10 million listeners by the end of this year, and to 25 million listeners over the next two years. That’s impressive growth, though most will only be one-time users. Chapman sees repeat listeners as the key to advertising growth for the medium, though so far they are in the minority. Looking ahead, active podcasters are expected to reach 3 million this year, rising to 7.5 million in 2008 and 15 million in 2010. Those are solid numbers given the immaturity of the format, though they still pale in comparison to the 200 million Americans broadcast radio reaches»

fonte: Podcasting Growth Continues, Mass Market Potential Uncertain, Richard Menta, Digital Music News

A música e as netlabels

Excertos de um artigo (óptimo) do Público de ontem sobre as netlabels (editoras independentes na internet):

«Desde a sua criação, em Julho de 2004, a test tube já lançou 36 edições de músicos nacionais e estrangeiros. Há discos que chegam aos 500 downloads ao fim de dois meses on line - números consideráveis no diminuto mercado português. A test tube é uma das netlabels portuguesas, cujo número cresceu entretanto para uma dezena, quase todas surgidas no último ano.»

«As netlabels distribuem música em formatos digitais. As edições são semelhantes às de uma editora tradicional, mas estão disponíveis na Internet, regra geral, gratuitamente. Surgiram, a nível mundial, na década de 1990, mas têm raízes na chamada demoscene (equipas de artistas gráficos, programadores informáticos e músicos que competiam entre si). A maior parte destas editoras virtuais lança música electrónica ou experimental, mas há editoras dedicadas a outros géneros.»

«Indissociáveis do movimento de mudança na indústria musical imposto pela Internet, estas plataformas vêm colocar questões de direitos de autor, já que, ao contrário de outras formas de obter música na rede, pautam-se pela legalidade, através de licenças como as Creative Commons. Para Fernando Ferreira, da MiMi, existe nas editoras virtuais uma "atitude subversiva", mais do que "política". "As netlabels existem para provar que o universo da música digital não é uma afronta às companhias discográficas e aos seus artistas, mas sim uma forma de expressão por direito próprio, e de liberdade artística", argumenta.»

Geração 3,5G (HSDPA) resolve tv móvel?

De acordo com informações do último Expresso ("Geração 3,5 em Junho", manuel Posser de Andrade, 18/2/06, suplemento de economia), vem aí a evolução da 3G "que permite um aumento considerável da velocidade de transmissão de dados". Fica a saber-se que numa primeira fase a rede vai ter 1,8 Mbps, quatro vezes superior à actual 3G. "Mas posteriormente (2007/2008) a rede vai permitir atingir os 14,4 Mbps, ou seja 30 vezes a largura de banda da oferta actual" (ou seja, valores semelhantes à rede fixa).

Esta alteração terá efeitos visíveis em aplicações de internet, jogos, mas sobretudo televisão.

Na mesma edição do Expresso, outra notícia dá conta de que a Samsung vai disponibilzair no mercado europeu o modelo z560, primeiro modelo HSDPA, High Speed Downlink Packett Acess)

Desenvolvimento a 10/3/06: «A Vodafone inicia hoje a disponibilização em Portugal da nova tecnologia 3G Banda Larga, também designada por 3ª Geração e Meia (3,5G) ou HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).A 3G Banda Larga é uma evolução tecnológica da rede da 3ª Geração que permite um aumento considerável da velocidade de transmissão que pode atingir 1,8Mbps. Com esta nova tecnologia é possível obter, já nesta primeira fase, velocidades de transmissão bastante elevadas, de cerca de 1,4Mbps que excedem em cerca de 4 vezes a velocidade actualmente disponibilizada na 3ª Geração.» (fonte Vodafone)