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Transistor kills the radio star?

As cotações das empresas de rádio nos EUA

CLEAR CHANNEL

$35.42 and only because their buyout price guarantees $36 or else, who knows what it would be worth today. Maybe $9-15? CCU was $91.75 on February 4th, 2000 and after that date the share price was never higher. This is the bellwether stock for radio -- the largest owner with 1,100 stations. No wonder the founding Mays family can't beat it to the door fast enough for one more paycheck. Their legacy may very well be that they single-handedly helped lead the radio industry into the doldrums through inept management and lack of vision.

CBS

$17.17 at closing on Friday. CBS was as high as $88.70 in winter, 2004 although it has paid dividends recently and has been reconfigured away from parent Viacom -- all factors that make it difficult to judge apples with apples. It also includes television -- another dying business with the next generation. CBS Radio President Joel Hollander didn't know what he was doing and when his successor, Dan Mason, showed up, he was smart enough to understand that CBS needed to program to the available radio audience and has tried to rebuild stations while corporate pressures forced him to make cutbacks -- not good.

COX RADIO

$9.95 and beginning to worry Wall Street. Cox stock had been in the $30 range in 1998 and never got higher. Cox President Bob Neil, like CBS' Mason is smart. But Neil is increasingly distracted with the holy jihad he is conducting against Arbitron's People Meter instead of keeping his eyes on his fries. Neil is also wise enough to cut spot loads -- a battle worth fighting publicly. Neil knows radio must tighten inventory and charge more. He should be leading on these issues and not conducting food fights with Arbitron over PPM.

SAGA

$5.62 at the bell Friday. Saga shareholders were no doubt happier in 2002 when its stock priced at $23. Since then it has never been higher. Downhill all the way. Saga chief Ed Christian never strayed from his plan to run a consolidated small market radio company and he deserves credit for that as analysts agree radio is somewhat healthier in smaller markets. Christian surprised at least one of his employees when he joined Cox's fight against Arbitron's People Meter -- some perceiving it as a personal crusade. Misguided to say the least -- as long as more important issues are on the table.

ENTERCOM

$5.18 Friday -- a far cry from $65.88 in Feb 4, 2000 then down you go. Shareholders must have had great faith in Entercom to value it with the big boys but it languishes today through lack of vision and ordinary operating strategies -- a big fall from grace by radio's preferred judgment standard -- shareholder value.

CUMULUS

$2.73 -- a $50 stock in 2002 and then steadily down. Another small market strategy that went awry. Even with the benefit of small market economics Cumulus is getting too close to becoming a $1 stock. This in spite of the fact that the Dickey's knew they needed to get out, but were not able to make a buyout happen in the current financial atmosphere.

EMMIS

$1.56 at the end of last week -- $56.56 in January, 2000 and then never above that high. CEO Jeff Smulyan runs an honest company with excellent assets (I'm speaking about the employees here). But he has a problem -- too much dependence on New York and LA which has been a roller coaster ride -- particularly down lately. Smulyan has tried several times to take the company private and has run into opposition. In my opinion, he was willing to overpay to go private. Guess shareholders aren't that smart. Selling at $19 sounds better to me than closing at $1.56. Nonetheless, even good people with a good leader can't muster more value than a buck and a half.

RADIO ONE


What a great name for this stock since it is worth around one dollar -- $1.05 on Friday. Radio One had worked its way up to $23.30 in May, 2002. The Liggins family has not been able to show vision that has been any better than their peers as this company flirts with being delisted.

CITADEL


83 cents -- you read that right -- 83 cents. Citadel was $22 ten years ago when the ABC merger wasn't even a glimmer in anyone's eye and Citadel has been declining ever since. Citadel is a particular disgrace as a public company because its shareholders see fit to compensate their CEO, Farid Suleman, at the $11 million a year level -- and they pay the taxes as part of his deal. This spits in the face of the Citadel employees who are working at a great disadvantage -- minus a leader who knows the way out of all this trouble. Suleman's accounting background leads him to default to cutting expenses and dismissing talented people rather than investing in a company that could have a digital future.

So, there you have just a few of the reasons the radio industry is in the toilet. There are more. Believe me, I didn't leave out any success stories -- at least from the stock price perspective, their own barometer for success.

Which brings me back to my original premise.

Radio is being run by a few inept people in very influential places.

But even if they are forcing talented managers, programmers, on-air people and sales executives to carry out their budgetary orders, well -- let me quote Eastwood's Gunny Highway here -- "Just because we're holding hands doesn't mean we'll be taking warm showers together until the wee hours of the morning".

COLLIANO, Jerry del, «Grading the Radio Groups » Inside Music Media, 14/07/08

[http://insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com/2008/07/grading-radio-groups.html]

«The Future of Radio» (2007), Ofcom, Abril

«The Future of Radio» (2007), Ofcom, Abril

 [http://www.ofcom.org.uk/consult/condocs/futureradio/future.pdf]

O FM educacional

«(...) the number of licensed radio stations has continued to creep up. It grew to 13,977 as of Dec. 31, 2007; that compares to 13,837 stations at the end of the year before. Breaking it down, there are 4,776 AMs, 6,309 FMs and 2,892 educational FMs, which the FCC lists separately. (...) there are 22 more AMs in the United States than one year ago, 43 more FMs and 75 more FM educationals.

More interestingly, how do these latest figures compare to 10 years ago? The numbers tell a 10-year story: no growth in AM signals, but boom times for FM educationals, translators and boosters. Total stations in 1997 would have been described as “above 12,000.” As of December of that year, according to FCC statistics we compared, there were 4,762 AMs — virtually no net change in AM station count from today (and down from 4,804 at the end of 2002; AMs were just shy of 5,000 in 1990). There were about 5,540 FMs 10 years ago, so that category is up about 14% in the decade since; and there were only about 1,900 FM educationals, a number that grew 50% in the subsequent decade.»

fonte: «Number of Licensed Radio Stations Grows Radioworldnewsbites 21,03,08

MARTÍ MARTÍ, Josep Maria (2004), «La programación radiofónica», Martínez-Costa, Maria Pilar, e Moreno Moreno, Elsa, Programación Radiofónica. Barcelona: Ariel

BOOK, Constante Leroux, e GRADY, Don A. (2005), «Consumer Adoption of New Radio Distribution Systems», NAB Grant Report, Junho

BOOK, Constante Leroux, e GRADY, Don A. (2005), «Consumer Adoption of New Radio Distribution Systems», NAB Grant Report, Junho [http://www.elon.edu/academics/communications/connections/2005/aug_05/satelliteradio.pdf]

Tentativas para fugir à rádio consolidada

Los 80 supusieron un cambio importante, sobre todo para la radiodifusión europea. Hacía ya años que algunos movimientos sociales, principalmente en países como Italia, habían reivindicado la radio como medio de expresión libre al servicio de la comunicación y el debate social. Para ellos, los grandes medios públicos eran incapaces de reflejar en sus programaciones las nuevas demandas y además eran poco permeables a la participación activa de grupos, la mayoría de los cuales se movían al margen del sistema político imperante. La mayoría de gobiernos nacionales se enfrentaron directamente con estas reivindicaciones y persiguieron las experiencias de emisión en FM llevadas a cabo a pesar del férreo sistema de control. Pese a todas las prohibiciones, la liberalización del espectro fue inevitable y la denominada desregulación dio paso a la radio privada, comercial o comunitaria".

(Marti Marti apud Martinéz-Costa e Moreno Moreno, 2004: 26)

MARTÍ, Josep Mª (2000), «Reflexiones sobre la radio musical del futuro», em Pedrero Esteban, Luis Miguel, La radio musical en España - Historia y análisis. Madrid: IORTV, 241-245

Queixas clássicas

«Listening to the radio is fine when driving near your home, but if your trip is longer than half an hour, you're going to lose reception. You need digital audio in your car. (...) You'll need a way to connect your digital audio to your car stereo:»

Eis algumas hipoteses aqui

Uma maneira perfeita de definir a rádio

Radio has listeners - lots of them. Lots of relationships between consumers and advertisers mediated by a radio station»

RAMSEY, Mark, «When your radio station's website doesn't matter», Hear2.0, 08/07/08 [http://www.hear2.com/2008/07/when-your-radio.html]

Se ouvem mais no carro e vai deixar de se ouvir tanto no carro...

« no «All ABout Teens», medidos os níveis de consumo diário de media, a televisão aparece com 72%, a Internet no computador com 65% e a rádio com apenas 29%; Nesse mesmo estudo, uma pergunta curiosa, porque rara: em que períodos/situações do dia-a-dia é que a rádio faz companhia: nas viagens de carro é a resposta que aparece destacada com 67%; depois segue-se «quando estou a arrumar o meu quarto/casa», com 41% e depois três situações com 27%: «quando estou no computador», «quando estou a estudar» e «nas viagens dos transportes públicos». A ponderação qualitativa das várias respostas parece indiciar algum desinteresse, na medida em que o carro está dependente da vontade de outros (os pais, possivelmente) e a escuta poderá ser «forçada». No entanto, a afirmação não pode ser inequívoca na medida em que não fica claro se ouvem por opção ou se trata de uma imposição.» (4.0, pag 62)

A partir deste caso (real ou fictício, poderá muito bem ser verdade), mais uma reflexão: o consumo de leitores de audio digital nomeadamente no carro não só diminui o consumo de rádio mas tem outra consequência indirecta: afasta os mais novos do conhecimento/familiarização da própria rádio.

 

But All Is Not Well: Radio Is Less Dominant Among Young Consumers (pag 12)

 

 

Receber programas ondemand no telemóvel

«If you sometimes find yourself away from a radio you can still grab some programming on your cell phone with CelleCast.

CelleCast provides on-demand audio for a number of programs and though it is limited, there are some decent choices at the moment including "The Dr. Laura Program", "The Lou Dobbs Show", "This is America with Jon Elliott", and others talk shows and programs in various genres.

You can register for a free account with CelleCast but if you upgrade to a paid subscription, you receive more listening options. »

DEITZ, Corey, «CelleCast Provides On-Demand Radio Programming to Cell Phones», RadioAbout.com, 07/07/08

A rádio pode ser o novo média; só ainda não percebeu...

Radio can be New Media. It just hasn't realized it yet.

DARDIS, Ken, Good News for Radio: It Could Be New Media, Audiographics, 11/07/08 [http://www.audiographics.com/agd/071108-1.htm]

Pressuposto de partida

este estudo orienta-se  a partir do pressuposto de que os media e os seus conteduos não determinam (hoje como no passado) os comportamentos (historico, social e cultural) dos jovens, mas que contribuem, de uma forma significativa, para o seu desenvolvimento 

BELAU, Faus (2001), «La radio en el entorno cambianteb del siglo XXI», em Martinéz-Costa, Maria, ed, Reiventar la radio, Ediciones Eunate, Pamplona, págs. 15-37

O (reduzido) valor da publicidade na rádio

A partir de um estudo divulgado recentemente, algumas conclusões:

- O mercado global de publicidade na rádio vale apenas 9 por cento do bolo (ligeiramente menos do que há quatro anos); Este nove por cento não correspondem às audiencias da rádio e ao seu impacto, havendo lugar a uma subavaliação do impacto da rádio (que, assim, está muito barata).

Share Of Advertising By Medium (2000 and 2004)

2000
2004
Magazines
15.0%
13.8%
Newspapers
30.7%
30.1%
Outdoor
5.4%
5.4%
Cinema
0.3%
0.4%
Other
1.5%
1.2%
Internet
2.0%
3.2%
Radio
9.1%
8.9%
TV
36.0%
37.0%
Combined newspapers
and magazines
43.9%
45.7%
Source:Analysts/ Institutional Presentation: London, 25th January 2006

Também fica claro que uma hora a ouvir rádio é muito mais barata do que uma hora na televisão, na internet ou mesmo a ler o jornal:

«If the key to media exposure (and thus advertising effectiveness) is the time that people spend reading, watching, using or listening to the medium, says O’Reilly, how much do advertisers invest in reaching their audience?

  • Every hour of TV viewing attracts advertisers to spend $40.1 million.
  • For each hour of radio listenership, its only $19.3 million

    • And for the Internet advertisers only spend $65.4 million, over 50% more than TV
    • For newspapers, advertisers spend $316.3 million for every hour of newspaper reading»

  • And for the Internet advertisers only spend $65.4 million, over 50% more than TV
  • For newspapers, advertisers spend $316.3 million for every hour of newspaper reading»

O estudo completo aqui: http://www.wan-press.org/IMG/pdf/WAN_Savoy_Prese_on_25-01-06.pdf

 

O principal problema da rádio é o excesso de publicidade

O guru Al Ries acha que «Radio is a powerful medium with great selectivity at relatively low costs, but Radiado threatens the very existence of the medium. Too much is too much»: O problema, diz, é que a rádio tem excesso de publicidade. Por isso diz que «For every ad that radio stations used to run, it now seems like they run two. Radio, in my opinion, has become Radiado, an extra "ad" inserted at every possible point in the programming». E no seu dia a dia, «My favorite radio personality is Neal Boortz, a nationally syndicated talk-show host who broadcasts out of Atlanta on 171 stations. I listen to Boortz every morning during the commute to my office in Roswell. Yet at the top of the hour, I turn off my radio and don’t turn it back on until 8 minutes after the hour. Why? Because that’s radio’s black hole. Eight solid minutes of commercials, traffic, weather, news and more commercials. The second black hole occurs at the bottom of the hour, but it’s not quite as bad. I turn off my radio for only 6 minutes». Por isso conclui que «The biggest health problem in America today is obesity. The biggest advertising problem in America today is obesity, too»

fonte: «How Radio Is Becoming RadiADo», AL Ries, Advertising Age, 4/03/07 

Mark Ramsey já comentou: «(...) ask the deeper question: If radio featured significantly less advertising, would that keep listeners away from their CD’s and iPods and satellite radios and TV’s and video games? Indeed, would that make the radio industry a healthier one? Less is not more unless less is zero. Then less is called "subscription."»

Um velho problema: rádio tem menos publicidade do que audiência

«During the Q&A portion of the Cox earnings call on Tuesday, Cox Radio President/CEO Bob Neil said, “We continually fight to try and make advertisers understand what the value of our medium is. It's not unlike the fight that our media brothers and sisters go through all the time.
“We feel like, given the percentage of time we get from consumers we don't get our fair share on the advertising side. We think, given the amount of time people spend with us and our advertising share, we bring a good value to the table for local advertisers and we want to make sure that they realize that.”
«Neil continued, pointing out that “when 93% of the people are listening to radio on a weekly basis that’s a pretty powerful thing.
“Is fragmentation occurring? Sure it is. But it’s always occurred for radio. You (reporter covering the call) write about the iPod. Ten years ago your predecessor was writing about CDs and 20 years before that his predecessor was writing about 8-Tracks. It’s always something.
“The point is, this is a good business. It has a lot of people listening to it. It’s a viable advertising business. So rather than spending all your time finding out what’s wrong with it, it would be great if somebody would spend a little bit of time at least recognizing the positives that are there.
“The facts speak pretty well for our media, and if you’re in some of the other media it’s a lot worse right now, so I’ll take radio, thanks.”»

fonte: «Cox's Neil: I'll Take Radio», radio Ink, 1/03/07 

Last.fm paga directamente a artista

«What Last.fm is doing here is creating an alternative to the official royalty-collecting organization for musicians (i.e., SoundExchange). Last year, the royalty rates for music streamed over the Internet were raised, making it more difficult for ad-supported music startups to stay in business. Last.fm got bought by CBS, so it's not in danger of going under. And for any song owned by a label or artist who participates in SoundExchange, Last.fm continues to pay the going Internet radio royalty rate. But it is beginning to bypass Sound Exchange by giving new, unsigned artists an alternative

Since it is Last.fm's program, it controls the royalty rates it pays out, which it can adjust according to how much advertising revenues these songs generate. Now, does anyone actually want to listen to these songs and ill musicians shift over in massive numbers from the labels to this sort of direct arrangement? That is what will determine how disruptive this really is.

fonte: Erick Schonfeld  Who Needs Music Labels? Last.fm Starts Paying Royalties To Unsigned Artists TechCrunch.com
Wednesday, July 9, 2008

A participação

«In addition to providing absolute anonymity for the audience, traditional broadcasting has another striking feature: It does not encourage audience participation. Since the listeners have no means of staying in direct contact with the providers, editorial content was created without their contribution» (Nyre e Ala-Fossi, 2008: 42)

NYRE, Lars e ALA-FOSSI, Marko (2008), «The Next Generation Platform: Comparing Audience Registration and Participation in Digital Sound Media», Journal of Radio & Audio Media, Volume 15, Issue 1 January , pages 41 - 58