(uma visão optimista...)

«Bob Pittman may be known to most of the world as an Internet visionary, but he was a broadcaster first and he told the NAB Show Radio Luncheon yesterday that it is frustrating to hear people talk about radio as if there’s something wrong with the business. “Radio is mobile, it’s easy to use, it has a lot of choice,” Pittman said. Repeating comments we’d heard him use previously when talking about new media, he said what makes a great consumer business is convenience and brand – and “radio wins on both counts.” The one-time radio programmer noted, “I think there are probably no better brand builders in the world than radio programmers.” Despite all of the hype about the Internet replacing broadcasting, Pittman, who is currently an investor in radio and TV groups as well as new media, insisted “the Internet is not television or radio.” People still turn to broadcasting for entertainment, while they use the Internet to manage their lives.» fonte: Pittman: Internet does not compete with radio and television, RBR 15 April, 2008

(será um erro entender a Internet como uma espécie de meio que vem concorrer com os clássicos; a Internet não concorre com um, mas com todos. Mas a Internet concorre, integrando os anteriores, juntando-os, convergindo, criando algo de novo, fazendo coexistir os antigos mas de forma diferente, alterando-os; se a Internet fosse um meio concorrente, a história poderia repetir-se; assim, do que estamos a falar é de uma nova categoria, de uma nova ideia de comunicação)

«The history and evolution of media resemble that of species in nature: The introduction of a new medium (species) typically changes the uses and interactions among the existing media. This is not surprising given that the system consisting of media and ecological systems are both based on very similar principles (e.g., the survival of the fittest). (...) This is, in fact, how media have evolved as well Following the introduction of movies over a short span of time, they enjoyed their golden age, accompanied by relatively little change, until radio came along. The evolution of radio, television, and interactive media has followed the same general pattern. (...).

To survive radio's challenge, the motion picture industry was forced to move to sound and later to color films. More direct and compelling challenges to movies came from television. Television provided the same entertainment function that movies provided but with the added convenience of delivering programs directly to homes. To survive this threat, the movie industry had to cooperate with television by providing materials for broadcasting. As for radio, it had to reinvent itself to survive the television challenge. Radio was forced to move from being a staple at the center of the living room to becoming portable and physically going to where television could not. The television industry, in an effort to survive with multimedia, introduced high-definition television, a breakthrough toward the computerization of home television sets. This digital technology is expected to provide multimedia Internet services for the television networks and local stations. Radio, too, has taken the step toward digital broadcasting in what is referred to as digital audio broadcasting.

The Internet offers an environment in which all of these media can coexist. With high-speed Internet connections provided by either telephone wire, a cable television line, or a satellite link, new entertainment options such as movies-on-demand, radio, television, and "live" on-line games against many players scattered around the globe have become reality.» (PAIK, 2001: 24-25) 

«(...)by 1930, 46% of American households had a radio, and 10 years later that number had grown to more than 80%. By 1970, radio ownership had already reached 98%, nearly the current ownership rate (99%). Of course, one may question the appropriateness of radio ownership as a measure of radio's popularity, for it is entirely possible that a great many radios simply sat unused, collecting dust. However, as seen (...), the increase in ownership is matched by a comparable increase in the number of radio stations» (Paik, 2001: 11)

«In-home radio listening – as was the case in the ’07 study – is diminished as respondents continue to utilize other media in their residences. (This was an alarming pattern that we saw up-close and personal in "The Bedroom Project.") In-car and at work listening, and audio streaming display positive momentum.»

«TechSurvey 2008», Jacobs Media, Março 2008

«It's at times like these when my thoughts go to the scene of a General smiling in a foxhole with a subordinate who asks, "Sir, we're totally surrounded by the enemy. Yet, you have this big smile on your face. Why?" The General replies quickly, "Because now I can attack in any direction!"
Radio industry executives are finding themselves cowering in foxholes these days. They're embattled on multiple fronts, yet carry no strong plan of attack for any direction. While there's plenty of buzz and a few attempts to move where the crowd is going, there are no outstanding success stories to report. Radio industry trades carry very little news about internet initiatives, either locally or on a national/regional scale.

Radio Industry Has Little Time to React Audiographics Ken Dardis, 3/03/08

(fecha - o segundo choque?)

OU COMO SE PROVA QUE UM MEIO PODE SUBSTITUIR O OUTRO SE TIVER VANTAGENS SOBRE O ANTERIOR:

«The Pony Express operated from 1860 to 1861. It was an expensive service for letters and most people couldn’t afford the up to $5.00 dollar cost of sending mail. The founders always assumed the federal government would come through with a contract to provide most of their income. It never happened. The U.S. government decided a new technology called the “telegraph” would be better and eventually, The Pony Express folded. Both services were able to deliver messages – one by traditional letters via riders, the other by Morse Code via wire. Both the Pony Express and telegraph delivered the same content. The telegraph just was able to do it faster and cheaper.

Is AM and FM today’s “Pony Express” and WiMax the next “telegraph”? When WiMax takes hold, Internet Radio and Podcasting might be able to do it better than AM and FM because startup costs for stations will be very modest, no one will need to apply for a license to broadcast, the F.C.C. won’t have control over WiMax-enabled radio stations (at least as of now), and stations will be able to narrowcast to a smaller audience with more unique content because less overhead will make it easier to support niche programming.  Given that scenario, this is no time for anyone in traditional Radio to look down their nose at the upstarts and wannabes because it is only a matter of time until they are given the technological footing to compete equally. All they will have to do is come up with good content – better content than old media did.» (How Will We Define Radio in the Future?  Corey Deitz, 3/01/07)

«Virtually everyone in radio believes the medium has become less fun, less creative, and just plain less worth listening to than at any other point since its birth» (Fisher, 2007: 294) 

«Stories about "why radio sucks" and "why radio stinks" popped up in the press. When Prince opened a concert at New York's Lincoln Center by asking, "How do y'all like your radio stations, New York City?" the crowd responded with a booming chorus of boos. At FCC meetings, activists favoring radio diversity dogged commissioners, urging them to defy the big corporations and return control of the airwaves to the public. And on the radio, Tom Petty, recently inducted into the Rock  the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, sang "The Last DJ": 'And there goes the last DJ

Who plays what he wants to play

And says what he wants to say»

(Fisher, 2007: 295) 

«Payola - gifts and payments to deejays made as inducement for playing records - wasn't illegal. Nor was payola new - in the heyday of sheet music, song pluggers handed out cash to get barroom pianists to play their tunes, and in the 1930s and '40s, promoters paid bandleaders to push their songs» (Fisher, 2007: 79)

«Others stuck to legal forms of persuasion. "I never gave a disc jockey money in my life," says Frank Falise, a promoter who worked the mid-Atlantic states for Universal, MCA, Capitol, and other record companies. "But you took care of those jocks very well. You made sure they got plenty of records, backstage meets with the artists, photos with the artists, great tickets. If they can take their listeners backstage to see Elton John, that builds their audience and helps them make more money at their station. There's no payola the way it was forty years ago, but the business was always based on relationships. "» (Fisher 2007: 288) 

«(...) the number of licensed radio stations has continued to creep up. It grew to 13,977 as of Dec. 31, 2007; that compares to 13,837 stations at the end of the year before. Breaking it down, there are 4,776 AMs, 6,309 FMs and 2,892 educational FMs, which the FCC lists separately. (...) there are 22 more AMs in the United States than one year ago, 43 more FMs and 75 more FM educationals.

More interestingly, how do these latest figures compare to 10 years ago? The numbers tell a 10-year story: no growth in AM signals, but boom times for FM educationals, translators and boosters. Total stations in 1997 would have been described as “above 12,000.” As of December of that year, according to FCC statistics we compared, there were 4,762 AMs — virtually no net change in AM station count from today (and down from 4,804 at the end of 2002; AMs were just shy of 5,000 in 1990). There were about 5,540 FMs 10 years ago, so that category is up about 14% in the decade since; and there were only about 1,900 FM educationals, a number that grew 50% in the subsequent decade.»

fonte: «Number of Licensed Radio Stations Grows Radioworldnewsbites 21,03,08

A crise presente da rádio é tambem a crise de um determinado modelo comercial. «Barnouw (1970) maintained that since radio's inception in the 1920s, the notion of using program content to expose audiences to embedded advertising messages has proven to be a winning business model.» (47); «From a business perspective, Alexander (1997) maintained that the primary goal of radio programming is to maximize the size of an audience targeted by advertisers and the only way to accomplish this goal is to satisfy the needs and wants of that audience. "Uses and gratifications" has long been a popular approach to understanding audience motivations for tuning to radio and television programming. The underlying presumption is that audiences are not passive nonjudgmental receivers of media but are, rather, active seekers of program content that will satisfy specific needs. From practical considerations, such as wanting information about traffic congestion, to more abstract psychological desires, such as relief from emotional stress, listening patterns are determined by each person's expectations of how well different media or programs will gratify their needs (Rubin & Perse, 1994)» (pag 48)

- «(...) among the several motivations for switching stations, avoiding commercials was ranked the highest»(48/49)

- «The Arbitron Company, in conjunction with Edison Media Research (Arbitron Study, 1999), conducted a large telephone survey of more than 1000 Arbitron diary keepers (...) Because Arbitron has a vested interest in the overall success of radio as an advertising medium, the wording of many questions and the presentation of many findings have an obvious positive spin. Among the relevant findings were that the vast majority of respondents believe that listening to commercials is a "fair price to pay for free programming on the radio." On the other hand, a less publicized finding was that one third of the total sample would be willing to pay $5 per month for commercial-free programming. This study also concedes that young people(ages 12 to 24) are more likely to switch stations due to commercial avoidance. (pag 52)

- «the dominant motivation for switching radio stations was the desire to avoid commercials or zapping. Tied to this behavior was the tendency to abandon a commercial break almost immediately-even when listening to a "favorite station." Again, these findings are consistent with Abernathy (1991) who found that the first commercial in a break had a better chance of being exposed than later commercials within a cluster.» (60) McDowell and Dick, 2003

- The decline in sales – radio is losing advertising revenue to interactive media.

- Radio listening is down.

-Radio appeals mostly to Gen X and baby boomers.

- iPods, Smartphones and the Internet are cooler than radio.

- Gen Y doesn’t listen to radio. Their solution: try to make them think that your limited playlist station is playing the most variety.

- Too many commercials.

The totals for 2004-07 also are boosted by non-spot/off-air revenue and increased network participation in the survey in the last two years.»

fonte: radioworld newsbytes What a Difference a Decade Makes 7/02/08 

«En líneas generales, la Radio, los radiofonistas, su empresa y sus gentes sufren de aburrimiento letal, desinterés total por el producto, la programación, el contenido y la audiencia. La Radio está ayuna de investigación y ciencia propias, desheredada de ideadores, abandonada de creadores, magra en inventores y encadenada por la cuenta de resultados. Estamos ante la caducidad de un sistema y de unas fórmulas históricas de narración, contenido, programación y concepto radiofónico. Resueltas estas causas, las tecnológicas o económicas se despejarán inmediatamente»

Também há razões externas: «La Radio enfrenta cambios sociales, tecnológicos y económicos, la conjunción de los cuales producirá mutaciones sustanciales en ella. Son estos factores externos al Medio los que causan mayor inquietud en la empresa radiofónica porque escapan a su control y comprensión: los analizan desde sus perspectivas económicas o técnicas y no desde parámetros propios del Medio o de la Comunicación» (...) Sobre as mudanças sociais: «En términos radiofónicos esto significa que la sociedad actual es bien distinta de aquella para la que fue pensada, hace 25 años, una radio a la medida ; radio que aún hoy hacemos. Crudamente dicho: aquella generación, en parte, ha desaparecido y el resto dará el relevo en breve. En cambio la radio de hoy vive como si el tiempo se hubiera detenido. Hay una sociedad nueva y un lenguaje nuevo en la sociedad que no tiene reflejo en los medios en general y menos en la radio»

fonte: Faus Belau, Ángel (2001), Reinventar la Radio, Chasqui 74 

«JP Morgan analysts think radio ad revenue will fall 3% this year.

John Blackledge and Aaron Chew issued their outlook saying cyclical and “secular” pressures will produce a down year.

“We estimate that radio industry advertising revenue should decline 3% in 2008, driven by continued secular pressure (with continued audience losses leading to loss of ad share) as well as cyclical pressure as the soft macro trends should lower demand for advertising on the medium,” they wrote.

“We believe the radio industry is already amidst an advertising recession,” given declines in the second half of last year. The radio industry has underperformed nominal GDP by 5% on average annually since 2004, they said, but in recent months it underperformed by about 9%.

“We believe the below average underperformance will likely persist for most of 2008, offset to some degree by political spending” in the second half.»

fonte:Radio Is in Ad Recession, JP Morgan Analysts Say RWOnline, 29/02/08

«O rádio convencional, mais cedo ou mais tarde, se transformará num parente do antigo gramofone, um símbolo de um período, objecto destinado à exposição em museus» (Kischinhevsky, 2007: 126) 

A propósito de um capitulo do livro de Kischinhevsky (2007: 67- ), a que chama de «A lenda do ouvinte passivo» (reconhecendo que está numa posição subalterna), algumas ideias:

- defende-se neste trabalho que a rádio remete o ouvinte a uma extrema passividade. Isso por vezes interessa, para potenciar a acumulação, mas a rádio não foi capaz de tecnica e conceptualmente perceber - nem que seja pelo exemplo do controlo remoto na TV - que o ouvinte tambem quer agir, controlo.

- controlo não é procurar alternativa no caso de não gostar (quantas opções tem? a variedade é real) nem muito menos desligar - que é tornar.se não-ouvinte;

- mas não se defende aqui uma visão conspirativa da recepção passiva (motivada por interesses mais ou menos obscuros das industrias e dos governos, sobretudo dos Estados Unidos, como acontece sobretudo com Armand Mattelart ou Herbert Schiller, além de varios autores latino-americanos a expressão de Kischinhevsky, «a mesma lente de lavagem cerebral ideológica» [70], inspirados certamente em Adorno). A recepção passiva resulta principalmente da plena adequação da rádio ao seu novo papel de escuta secundária (em acumulação - correr, conduzir, estudar),. transformando-se num modelo de sucesso. Não vamos ao ponto de defender que o ouvinte é«um ser submisso, passivo, que consome qualquer tipo de emissão sem se dar conta dos engodos que lhe são impingidos» (71), mas é verdade que o ouvinte - por falta de alternativa - acomodou-se. Passivo sim, submisso não. como demonstra o interesse despertado pela internet e a quebra nas audiencias da rádio ao longo dos ultimos anos. Estamos, pois, mais proximos daquilo que defende Ciro MArcondes Filho (o  receptor mantem-se refem da ideologia veiculada pelos meios de comunicação) (71)

- por outras palavras recusa-se aqui a ideia de dominação por parte dos grandes interesses ou dos ouvintes anestisiados/hipnotizados: «teorias que fizeram muito sucesso especialmente nos anos 70, quando falar em comunicação era falar em dominação; basta substituir os horrorosos extraterrestres por gordos capitalistas e, voilá, estará caracterizada a sociedade subjugada pelo "imperialismo cultural" norte-americano. Nesses estudos, engendrados a partir das idéias da Escola de Frankfurt e renovados pelo conceito de idelogia desenvolvido por Althusser, o receptor era um ser anestesiado por mensagens sub-reptícias, narcóticas, de conformismo, conservadorismo, autoderrotismo, romantismo, providencialismo, em suma, estímulos à sujeição diante da ordem estabelecida» (2007: 68), tambem porque, como diz o autor, «a indústria da comunicação e do entretenimento está longe de ser um bloco monolítico como podem nos fazer pensar alguns dados quantitativos» (70) 

- contra «a concepção hegemônica ainda [é a] mecânica, que pressupõe a existência de um emissor todo-poderoso, transmissor de mensagens de significado fechado, prontas, para o consumo de um receptor sem rosto, sem gosto, sem vontade, incapaz de reagir. Nesta hipótese, amplamente disseminada não há espaço para trocas, intercâmbios, interpretações» (72); ou seja, «a recepção é apenas um ponto de chegada, à própria educação ilumínista, em que o receptor é uma "tábula rasa", um recipiente vazio, pronto a ser preenchido pelos ensinamentos do professor-emissor.» (72-73)

- tambem nunca terá total liberdade de escolha, como defende Jesus Martín-Barbero (74; A america latina e os anos recentes)

«Uma tecnologia não erradica necessariamente a outra, emhora possa tomar espaços e atenções das mídias já existentes. Mas podemos tomar como exemplo os discos de vinil, que, no espaço de poucos anos, foram transformados em sucata (ou, na melhor das hipóteses, itens de colecionador), graças a um inédito acordo entre as grandes corporações da indústria fonográfica. Acordo esse que estabeleceu hábeis estratégias para conquistar a adesão do consumidor a uma nova tecnologia, digital, enbora de qualidade nem sempre superior à dos antigos long-plays analógicos.«(KISCHINHEVSK, 2007: 14).

e o DAT da sony, que não se impôs como substituto da cassete analógica, acabando por desaparecer.

Broadcast radio faces challenges from satellite radio companies for listeners, from the Internet for advertisers and even from automakers who are making it increasingly easy for drivers to turn their car stereos into mirror images of their iPods and skip the radio altogether.

Cutbacks haven’t worked out so well, serving only to speed the exit of listeners and making it harder to maintain smaller and smaller profit margins. Increasingly conservative playlists have made radio less essential to even the most casual of music fans, who don’t feel like they’re missing anything if they don’t listen every day since the same 10 or 15 songs are in heavy rotation for a month or longer.»

«NEW YORK – February 20, 2008: Reacting to the RAB's report that overall radio revenue declined 6%, Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker today issued a report in which she described the result as a "horrible start to the new year" for the industry. In the report, Ryvicker also cut her Q1 forecast for the industry.
Whereas she previously had expected the industry to be flat versus year-ago levels, Ryvicker now predicts that the industry will post a 0.8% revenue decline for 2008.
She said, "We think Street estimates for 2008 are at risk and that most numbers will come down during the next two weeks as companies report Q4 2007 results and provide color on Q1 2008."» 21/02/08 radio INK 'Horrible Start' To 2008

INSIDE RADIO Thursday, February 21, 2008

Radio's worst January in more than a decade. There's no way to sugarcoat the stark fact that 2008 had a rough start for radio. Revenues fell 6% in January. But non-spot revenues continued to grow, increasing 11% last month. Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker says this "horrible start to the year" worries her. After just one month of data, she no longer thinks radio has hit bottom - and is projecting another negative year.

Big growth for online radio listening and revenues. Online music radio online logged 4.85 billion total listening hours last year, a 26% increase from 2006. AOL's Shoutcast remains the top destination, followed by Clear Channel Online. AccuStream iMedia Research calculates ad revenues increased 194% to $80 million last year - and that figure could jump to $150 million this year.

In fiscal 2007, which ended in August, the radio industry posted growth of 3.9%, according to figures published by the Radio Marketing Bureau. While this growth was restrained in comparison to a 6.5% increase a year earlier, the first four months of fiscal 2008 have so far produced growth of 5.6%,says Mr. Bayard.

Among radio’s strengths, he says, is its cost-effectiveness relative to other media, and the fact that radio rates highest for “the ability to connect with the consumer” who is close to making a purchase.»

fonte: Signals strong for radio industry, Astral and Corus, Posted: February 19, 2008, 9:02 AM by Jonathan Ratner

1. Our listeners are going away. (...)
2. Radio has maltreated its listeners and advertisers. Too much clutter, too many station promos, too little leadership, and too much research. We follow our listeners instead of leading them. We pander to them. (...)
3. Consolidation has helped the quality of the radio product…the actual “on air” presentation. It has not helped to expand the range of programming choices available to our audiences. This has been a huge disappointment.
4. Consolidation has done harm to one of our most basic and important tenets of commercial radio: the ideal of localism.

«Radio reaches a large portion of adults on a weekly basis, but time spent listening is at a 27-year low. In September 2002, Duncan’s American Radio reported that the “average persons rating” – the percentage of the U.S. population listening to the radio in any average quarter hour – has experienced a near-17 percent drop in listening over the last 13 years.» Future of Music Coalition, Radio Deregulation: Has It Served Citizens and Musicians?

«We are in the middle of an exciting expansion of radio's horizon and capability with the digital revolution.  And, despite all the naysayers, radio's doing quite well. With all the new choices available to consumers, radio has lost less than 5% of its total listening.  Radio components  within new devices are expanding our reach.  Did you know that one of the most popular and well received accessories for iPods is the FM tuner?  Did you notice that Microsoft included a radio tuner in its Zune device?  Technology companies have embraced radio; it is high time for radio to embrace the technological tidal wave, rather than swimming against it.   Regardless of the delivery system, radio will always have the unique advantage of being the local content provider.  We've got the facility and the talent; all we lack is the vision to move aggressively into custom, tailored content for these new delivery systems.» ( Peter Smyth, CEO Greater Media, Sending Bold Signals at RAB2008, Fev 08)

«Many people are dissatisfied with the state of commercial radio in the U.S. today. “It all sounds the same” and “there’s nothing there for me” are common complaints. Observers point to consolidation in the radio industry as the cause. Since 1996, when Congress deregulated the radio industry, a wave of mergers has placed the majority of radio stations into the hands of a few large corporations. During this time the number of independent radio stations shrank. Uniform corporate policies and market research-driven programming have reduced the variety of music on commercial radio. One critic summed up this approach as “play the fewest songs that appeal to the most people.” Also problematic is the requirement that record companies make big payments to promoters in order to get their songs on the radio. As a consequence it is harder than ever for new acts to be heard on commercial radio; only the biggest and best-financed acts get access to the commercial airwaves. Bill Wyman of the Rolling Stones recently said, “The Rolling Stones would never make it now.”»

BREEDING, Andy (2004), Internet Music Services, MA: Giant Path, pag 18

«Constant denial -- that's what's killing radio.

Last week we heard the same old song again at the Southern California Broadcasters Association gathering. I don't know about you but these guys are starting to scare me.

Radio-Info's Tom Taylor reported that Clear Channel's John Hogan said "performance and capability is not our problem. Our problem is one of perception". (...) They have driven off the next generation -- have no clue what they want -- and think the problem is about perception. No one cares about perception -- they care about content and -- I might add -- how it is delivered.»

fonte: Jerry Del Colliano, Redfine Radio -- Don't Reinvent It 4/02/08

«Owing to numerous media alternatives available, overall time spent listening (TSL) has slipped 13% between 1998 and 2006, but less than an hour in the four years from 2002 to 2006. The largest erosion since 1998 for men has been with 18-24s, with a decline of 17%; for women, the largest decline has been among Teens, whose TSL has decreased 23%. The least slippage in time spent listening among men during those eight years has been with 45-54s, losing less than 6%; among women, it is the 45-54 group, down 9%»

fonte: Radio Today 2007, Arbitron, pag 91

«A friend put together this list of key radio companies before yesterday's roller coaster ride on the Dow. Look how well they have built shareholder value for their investors.

Spanish Broadcasting
High 42.00 -- Recently 1.54 -- Loss of 96.33% (1.50 yesterday)

Emmis
High 62.34 -- Recently -- 2.47 -- Loss of 96.04% (2.62 yesterday)

Radio One
High 31.33 -- Recently 1.77 -- Loss of 94.35% (1.68 yesterday)

Citadel Broadcasting
High 22.79 -- Recently 1.69 -- Loss of 92.58% (1.52 yesterday)

Regent
High 14.19 -- Recently 1.49 -- Loss of 89.50% (1.32 yesterday)

Salem
High 33.65 -- Recently 4.63 -- Loss of 86.24% (3.93 yesterday)

Entercom
High 67.75 -- Recently 11.00 -- Loss of 83.76% (11.00 yesterday)

Cumulus (Private buyout in progress)
High 22.70 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.01% (5.43 yesterday)

Saga
High 23.44 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.83% (5.97 yesterday)

Beasley
High 19.34 -- Recently 5.05 -- Loss of 73.89% (4.48 yesterday)

Cox Radio
High 34.67 -- Recently 11.10 -- Loss of 67.98% (10.89 yesterday)

Entravision
High 20.31 -- Recently 7.27 -- Loss of 64.20% (6.03 yesterday)

Clear Channel (Private Buyout in Progress)
High 91.50 -- Recently 34.42 -- Loss of 62.38% (32.14 yesterday)

CBS
High 35.50 -- Recently 24.00 -- Loss of 32.39% (22.28 yesterday)
(New issue missing most of the loss).»

fonte: «Radio's "Recession" Started A Long Time Ago», Jerry Del Coliano, 23/01/08

Continua a haver quem pense que basta olhar para o passado para a rádio sobreviver, que a rádio se reinventará por si própria. Como?

«Acontece, porém, que este meio sempre soube reinventar-se e ultrapassar todas as crises, atraindo novas gerações de ouvintes. A rádio serviu regimes ditatoriais e foi também a via usada para iniciar revoluções. Foi amadora e formou profissionais. Foi pirata e impôs novas frequências. Foi defensora do culto do programa de autor e apostou nos ouvintes segmentados. Foi um meio de comunicação unidireccional, bidireccional e agora é interactivo. Alguém tem dúvidas de que a rádio é um meio fascinante cheio de futuro?» (Rui Camarinha, Briefing, 19/10/07).

Vale a pena citar Mark Ramsey: «the absurdity of relating the present state of the radio (yes, radio) industry to any time in its ancient history. For example, the birth of FM back in the late 60's to 70's lived in a technological environment which this chart clearly shows has completely disappeared»

«Beaten down by the market for yet another year, radio companies appear poised to face more of the same in 2008, with projections typically calling for minuscule to nonexistent growth in advertising revenue and increased competition for listeners as a foregone conclusion.The current year certainly looks poised to go down as another difficult period for the industry, with total advertising revenue down 2% year over year through three quarters, according to figures released by the Radio Advertising Bureau Dec. 3, data that also showed revenue figures sagging further in the latter portion of the year, with third-quarter revenue down 5% year over year. (...) Wachovia Equity analyst Marci Ryvicker, for instance, recently said she now views radio as a "no growth medium" and puts zero percent growth as a likely, and potentially a "best case scenario" for 2008.  (...) Ryvicker noted three major trends that will conspire to hold radio revenues down in 2008 and beyond: the flight of ad dollars to new media, the generally depressed state of the economy and a slowdown in overall ad expenditures.»

fonte: MarketWeek: Radio revenues to get 'down' in 2008, SNL Interactive December 14, 2007 1:12 PM ET By Dave Hendrick

É a opinião de Gustavo Cardoso (Obercom):

«(...) A rádio é considerada por muitos autores como um meio de futuro e também eu creio que o que assistimos é à sua vitalidade e não ao seu desaparecimento, daí que concorde com Enrico Menduni sobre a rádio como um media de futuro. (...) a “Internet não matou a rádio mas deu-lhe uma terceira vida”. Uma vida diferente das anteriores, é claro. Mas uma nova vida sem dúvida. Uma vida alicerçada no facto de a rádio ser o media que mais facilmente se adapta à Web 2.0.»

Eu tenho! «Meio fascinante» e «oásis»????

A frase é de Rui Camarinha, no Briefing: «A rádio em Portugal está a atravessar o deserto mas já tem o oásis à frente. Será miragem? Os números indicam que há uma série de estações de qualidade com fraca audiência e outras tantas que não se percebe por que são tão ouvidas. A verdade é que a rádio no seu todo perde ouvintes, tem menor notoriedade e regista pouco potencial para atrair investimento publicitário, pelo menos quando comparado com outros meios de comunicação, como a televisão e, principalmente, a internet. Numa frase, a rádio deixou de ser sexy.»

É um estudo inovador, realizado por Mark Ramsey e apresentado no recente NAB Barcelona (realizado com base nos resultados do PPM).

Mark mostra que no momento em que o microfone se abre aumentam as probabilidades dos ouvintes desligarem:

«Listeners are almost 4x more likely to tune away from WBEN during an open mic than during a song» (imagem 79)

O que fazer? «Actions... • An open mic is a privilege, not a right; • Get to the point • Use that time wisely • Keep it tight • Plan, don’t Spam» (imagem 80); ou seja a solução não é calar os dj's/animadores

(tambem pode ser acedido a partir daqui)

«With the clock ticking toward a new year, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller projects radio will have another “challenging” year as revenues hold flat with “many forces on either side of the scale.” Miller says “Incredibly, one of the biggest positives for local radio in 2008 is that there will likely be fewer negatives.” On the plus side are more political dollars and increasing web revenues.»

fonte: «2008 Forecast: “The scale could tip either way.”», Inside Radio, 29/10/07

«Over the last several months firms have either reassigned or fired their analysts covering radio. A year ago 24 analysts were assigned to radio. Now, only a dozen cover the industry. Just as stocks have sunk to multi-year lows and their worth has been reduced, some of radio’s biggest companies are going private. Deutsche Bank’s Drew Marcus says radio’s trading value “has dried up” and “that’s decreased the need for analysts.”»

fonte: «Radio is falling off Wall Street’s radar. Inside Radio, 15/10/07

«The Media Audit’s Phillip Beswick says "Metamorphosis is a fit word to describe what radio is going through right now and the decade to come." Not just from new media audio distribution channels, but also from new competition for radio’s advertising revenue. Beswick says radio has attracted people that thrive on competition. But perhaps more importantly, he thinks consolidation into well-financed corporations will help radio "take on the significant challenges inherent with metamorphosis."

fonte: SAXE, Frank, "", Inside Radio, NAB Radio Show, Setembro 07, pag 8

«"The long term prospects for our business look very bright if, and only if, we aggressively seize on the opportunities that new technology and changing market needs are pointing out to us," says Greater Media CEO Peter Smyth. He predicts radio will be the "center point of a web of communication channels" in the coming decade, as listeners turn to radio for recommendations, resources and reflections of their city.» fonte: SAXE, Frank, "Looking towards radio's long-term future", Inside Radio, NAB Radio Show, Setembro 07, pag 6

Há, pelo menos relativamente aos jornais, quem pense que não (que caíriam de qualquer forma):

«The dark truth for newspapers is that their sales would be in serious decline even if Tim Berners-lee had never invented the internet and Metro was still an idea on the whiteboard. As the Telegraph website's Burton says: "No one has shown me evidence that the internet is making us lose print sales." And those newspapers that enthusiastically embraced free web content early on, such as The Guardian, find their combined web and print circulations in a healthier position than had they continued only to force-feed readers with slabs of Times New Roman. The Guardian's circulation would have fallen far further if it hadn't built up brand loyalty among students with its cluster of excellent sites» (Rob Blackhurst , The freeloading generation, British Journalism Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, 57 (2005))
 

Do relátório da eMarketeer Radio Trends:

«What's hurting traditional radio is its declining share of the media pie, in terms of time spent with media. Folks are listening to less radio as they spend more time on the web. As Macklin puts it in his report, “Traditional radio is losing its significance in people’s lives.". Yet radio still has a huge share, with a weekly cumulative audience of 282.8 million in the U.S., according to data from Bridge Ratings, and in fact some 90 percent of Americans still tune in to traditional radio each week. Further, radio is going through a whole set of changes that promise to widen its appeal, and many of those changes are occurring online. Indeed, Macklin believes that the key drivers in radio's future as an advertising medium will be station web sites and streaming internet audio. The number of traditional radio listeners is expected to remain relatively stable, at 274 million in 2015, but other areas are expected to grow rapidly. The audience for internet radio--simulcasts of traditional radio stations online and internet-only stations--is expected to grow from 72.0 million in 2007 to 187.3 million in 2015, according to Bridge Ratings» (fonte: «Brighter future for radio, despite it all, Media Life Magazine, By Heidi Dawley Sep 5, 2007)

 

«"I've been in the radio biz for over 35 years -- radio was supposed to be dead by now," he [Edward C. Kiernan, general manager of Baltimore's top-rated talk-radio station WBAL, 1090 AM, and its FM counterpart, WIYY, known as 98 Rock] said, ascribing its supposed demise to the advent of television, to the fact that cigarette advertising was removed from the airwaves, to record players, cassette tape recorders, eight-track tapes and, more recently, compact discs. If none of these things killed radio, he suggested, then iPods and satellite radio won't either.» E a Internet?

fonte: MADIGAN, Nick, «Radio may survive this, too», Baltimore Sun, August 26, 2007

«(...) last ten years have been a period of rapid growth of the Internet and mobile communications, which has challenged not only the traditional ideas of radio broadcasting and audio delivery, but also those unique, new extensions for radio broadcasting which DAB was able to promise. Lately, the Internet and mobile phone networks have provided a basis for new nonbroadcast or hybrid audio services (e.g. Podcasting, Visual Radio)» (Ala-Fossi. 2005: 2)

«Hybrid systems are discussed here only very briefly. Visual Radio is Nokia’s architectural innovation, which combines traditional analog FM radio and synchronized visual GPRS data delivery via GSM network (Hedges 2005c). Motorola’s iRadio is another architectural innovation, which makes it possible to listen Internet radio recordings from mobile phone memory via car or home stereo (Klein 2005). In addition, there are some software innovations which aim at bringing podcasting services directly into mobile phones through wireless mobile networks. While Melodeo counts on downloading podcasts from the Internet directly to the phone memory, Pod2Mob software will instead stream the selected podcasts to an applet on the users cell phone (Melodeo 2005, Pod2Mob 2005)» (Ala-Fossi, 2005: 19)

«Os problemas na indústria da música não se limitam às vendas de CD. As rádios rock, que foram durante muito tempo o veículo de marketing preferido pelas editoras, estão a sofrer os mesmos dissabores. Em 1993, os norte-americanos passavam uma média de 23 horas e 15 minutos por semana com a rádio ligada. Na Primavera de 2004, esse número tinha descido para 19 horas e 45 minutos. As audiências de rádio estão agora no mínimo dos últimos 27 anos e é a programação de música rock que parece estar a sofrer mais. (...)

Os especialistas continuam a não chegar a acordo quanto ao principal motivo, mas eis os principais candidatos:

.O aparecimento do fenómeno do iPod: Com um rádio personalizado, quem precisa de banda FM?

.O telemóvel: Os condutores a caminho do trabalho ou de casa, presos no trânsito, eram a salvação da rádio nos anos 80. Actualmente, continuamos a ficar presos nos engarrafamentos, mas optamos por falar ao telefone.

. A Lei das Telecomunicações de 1996 (EUA): Ao acrescentar mil estações de banda FM ao sinal de áudio, esta legislação aumentou a concorrência e provocou estragos no modelo de negócio dos incumbentes. A lei também flexibilizou os limites de propriedade em cada mercado, levando à...

.Clear Channel: Frequentemente acusada dos dissabores da rádio, esta gigante dos media é tanto um sintoma da feroz economia desta indústria quanto uma causa. Uma vez que a Lei das Telecomunicações nos EUA enfraqueceu o negócio das rádios locais em finais da década de 90, a Clear Channel podia ir comprando as estações em dificuldades. A empresa é actualmente proprietária de mais de 1.200 dessas estações, o que corresponde a uma em cada dez. (...)

.A punição da obscenidade pela Comissão Federal de Comunicações (FCC): Sempre fez parte das suas funções policiar aquilo que era dito nas emissões de rádio e televisão, mas a FCC raramente exerceu o seu dever com tanto vigor como nos últimos cinco anos. O principal alvo foi Howard Stern, uma personalidade "terra-a-terra" da rádio com tendência para o obsceno. Depois de incorrer em coimas sem precedentes, Stern acabou por desistir das emissões da rádio terrestrce. No final de 2005, transitou para a rádio por satélite Sirius, onde se estreou - praticamente sem censura - para uma audiência de assinantes em Janeiro de 2006. (...)» (Anderson, 2007: 37/38)