A crise presente da rádio é tambem a crise de um determinado modelo comercial. «Barnouw (1970) maintained that since radio's inception in the 1920s, the notion of using program content to expose audiences to embedded advertising messages has proven to be a winning business model.» (47); «From a business perspective, Alexander (1997) maintained that the primary goal of radio programming is to maximize the size of an audience targeted by advertisers and the only way to accomplish this goal is to satisfy the needs and wants of that audience. "Uses and gratifications" has long been a popular approach to understanding audience motivations for tuning to radio and television programming. The underlying presumption is that audiences are not passive nonjudgmental receivers of media but are, rather, active seekers of program content that will satisfy specific needs. From practical considerations, such as wanting information about traffic congestion, to more abstract psychological desires, such as relief from emotional stress, listening patterns are determined by each person's expectations of how well different media or programs will gratify their needs (Rubin & Perse, 1994)» (pag 48)

- «(...) among the several motivations for switching stations, avoiding commercials was ranked the highest»(48/49)

- «the dominant motivation for switching radio stations was the desire to avoid commercials or zapping. Tied to this behavior was the tendency to abandon a commercial break almost immediately-even when listening to a "favorite station." Again, these findings are consistent with Abernathy (1991) who found that the first commercial in a break had a better chance of being exposed than later commercials within a cluster.» (60) McDowell and Dick, 2003

CLEAR CHANNEL

.42 and only because their buyout price guarantees or else, who knows what it would be worth today. Maybe -15? CCU was .75 on February 4th, 2000 and after that date the share price was never higher. This is the bellwether stock for radio -- the largest owner with 1,100 stations. No wonder the founding Mays family can't beat it to the door fast enough for one more paycheck. Their legacy may very well be that they single-handedly helped lead the radio industry into the doldrums through inept management and lack of vision.

CBS

.17 at closing on Friday. CBS was as high as .70 in winter, 2004 although it has paid dividends recently and has been reconfigured away from parent Viacom -- all factors that make it difficult to judge apples with apples. It also includes television -- another dying business with the next generation. CBS Radio President Joel Hollander didn't know what he was doing and when his successor, Dan Mason, showed up, he was smart enough to understand that CBS needed to program to the available radio audience and has tried to rebuild stations while corporate pressures forced him to make cutbacks -- not good.

COX RADIO

.95 and beginning to worry Wall Street. Cox stock had been in the range in 1998 and never got higher. Cox President Bob Neil, like CBS' Mason is smart. But Neil is increasingly distracted with the holy jihad he is conducting against Arbitron's People Meter instead of keeping his eyes on his fries. Neil is also wise enough to cut spot loads -- a battle worth fighting publicly. Neil knows radio must tighten inventory and charge more. He should be leading on these issues and not conducting food fights with Arbitron over PPM.

SAGA

.62 at the bell Friday. Saga shareholders were no doubt happier in 2002 when its stock priced at . Since then it has never been higher. Downhill all the way. Saga chief Ed Christian never strayed from his plan to run a consolidated small market radio company and he deserves credit for that as analysts agree radio is somewhat healthier in smaller markets. Christian surprised at least one of his employees when he joined Cox's fight against Arbitron's People Meter -- some perceiving it as a personal crusade. Misguided to say the least -- as long as more important issues are on the table.

ENTERCOM

.18 Friday -- a far cry from .88 in Feb 4, 2000 then down you go. Shareholders must have had great faith in Entercom to value it with the big boys but it languishes today through lack of vision and ordinary operating strategies -- a big fall from grace by radio's preferred judgment standard -- shareholder value.

CUMULUS

.73 -- a stock in 2002 and then steadily down. Another small market strategy that went awry. Even with the benefit of small market economics Cumulus is getting too close to becoming a stock. This in spite of the fact that the Dickey's knew they needed to get out, but were not able to make a buyout happen in the current financial atmosphere.

EMMIS

.56 at the end of last week -- .56 in January, 2000 and then never above that high. CEO Jeff Smulyan runs an honest company with excellent assets (I'm speaking about the employees here). But he has a problem -- too much dependence on New York and LA which has been a roller coaster ride -- particularly down lately. Smulyan has tried several times to take the company private and has run into opposition. In my opinion, he was willing to overpay to go private. Guess shareholders aren't that smart. Selling at sounds better to me than closing at .56. Nonetheless, even good people with a good leader can't muster more value than a buck and a half.

RADIO ONE

What a great name for this stock since it is worth around one dollar -- .05 on Friday. Radio One had worked its way up to .30 in May, 2002. The Liggins family has not been able to show vision that has been any better than their peers as this company flirts with being delisted.

CITADEL

83 cents -- you read that right -- 83 cents. Citadel was ten years ago when the ABC merger wasn't even a glimmer in anyone's eye and Citadel has been declining ever since. Citadel is a particular disgrace as a public company because its shareholders see fit to compensate their CEO, Farid Suleman, at the million a year level -- and they pay the taxes as part of his deal. This spits in the face of the Citadel employees who are working at a great disadvantage -- minus a leader who knows the way out of all this trouble. Suleman's accounting background leads him to default to cutting expenses and dismissing talented people rather than investing in a company that could have a digital future.

So, there you have just a few of the reasons the radio industry is in the toilet. There are more. Believe me, I didn't leave out any success stories -- at least from the stock price perspective, their own barometer for success.

Which brings me back to my original premise.

Radio is being run by a few inept people in very influential places.

But even if they are forcing talented managers, programmers, on-air people and sales executives to carry out their budgetary orders, well -- let me quote Eastwood's Gunny Highway here -- "Just because we're holding hands doesn't mean we'll be taking warm showers together until the wee hours of the morning".

COLLIANO, Jerry del, «Grading the Radio Groups » Inside Music Media, 14/07/08

[http://insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com/2008/07/grading-radio-groups.html]

A partir de um estudo divulgado recentemente, algumas conclusões:

- O mercado global de publicidade na rádio vale apenas 9 por cento do bolo (ligeiramente menos do que há quatro anos); Este nove por cento não correspondem às audiencias da rádio e ao seu impacto, havendo lugar a uma subavaliação do impacto da rádio (que, assim, está muito barata).

Também fica claro que uma hora a ouvir rádio é muito mais barata do que uma hora na televisão, na internet ou mesmo a ler o jornal:

«If the key to media exposure (and thus advertising effectiveness) is the time that people spend reading, watching, using or listening to the medium, says O’Reilly, how much do advertisers invest in reaching their audience?

• Every hour of TV viewing attracts advertisers to spend .1 million.
  
• For each hour of radio listenership, its only .3 million
  • 
    
  • And for the Internet advertisers only spend .4 million, over 50% more than TV
    
  • For newspapers, advertisers spend 6.3 million for every hour of newspaper reading»
  
  
• And for the Internet advertisers only spend .4 million, over 50% more than TV
  
• For newspapers, advertisers spend 6.3 million for every hour of newspaper reading»

O estudo completo aqui: http://www.wan-press.org/IMG/pdf/WAN_Savoy_Prese_on_25-01-06.pdf

O guru Al Ries acha que «Radio is a powerful medium with great selectivity at relatively low costs, but Radiado threatens the very existence of the medium. Too much is too much»: O problema, diz, é que a rádio tem excesso de publicidade. Por isso diz que «For every ad that radio stations used to run, it now seems like they run two. Radio, in my opinion, has become Radiado, an extra "ad" inserted at every possible point in the programming». E no seu dia a dia, «My favorite radio personality is Neal Boortz, a nationally syndicated talk-show host who broadcasts out of Atlanta on 171 stations. I listen to Boortz every morning during the commute to my office in Roswell. Yet at the top of the hour, I turn off my radio and don’t turn it back on until 8 minutes after the hour. Why? Because that’s radio’s black hole. Eight solid minutes of commercials, traffic, weather, news and more commercials. The second black hole occurs at the bottom of the hour, but it’s not quite as bad. I turn off my radio for only 6 minutes». Por isso conclui que «The biggest health problem in America today is obesity. The biggest advertising problem in America today is obesity, too»

fonte: «How Radio Is Becoming RadiADo», AL Ries, Advertising Age, 4/03/07 

Mark Ramsey já comentou: «(...) ask the deeper question: If radio featured significantly less advertising, would that keep listeners away from their CD’s and iPods and satellite radios and TV’s and video games? Indeed, would that make the radio industry a healthier one? Less is not more unless less is zero. Then less is called "subscription."»

«During the Q&A portion of the Cox earnings call on Tuesday, Cox Radio President/CEO Bob Neil said, “We continually fight to try and make advertisers understand what the value of our medium is. It's not unlike the fight that our media brothers and sisters go through all the time.
“We feel like, given the percentage of time we get from consumers we don't get our fair share on the advertising side. We think, given the amount of time people spend with us and our advertising share, we bring a good value to the table for local advertisers and we want to make sure that they realize that.”
«Neil continued, pointing out that “when 93% of the people are listening to radio on a weekly basis that’s a pretty powerful thing.
“Is fragmentation occurring? Sure it is. But it’s always occurred for radio. You (reporter covering the call) write about the iPod. Ten years ago your predecessor was writing about CDs and 20 years before that his predecessor was writing about 8-Tracks. It’s always something.
“The point is, this is a good business. It has a lot of people listening to it. It’s a viable advertising business. So rather than spending all your time finding out what’s wrong with it, it would be great if somebody would spend a little bit of time at least recognizing the positives that are there.
“The facts speak pretty well for our media, and if you’re in some of the other media it’s a lot worse right now, so I’ll take radio, thanks.”»

fonte: «Cox's Neil: I'll Take Radio», radio Ink, 1/03/07 

- Lee Abrams, director do canal satélite XM e conhecido programador dos EUA, afirmou no seu blogue a capacidade de resilência da rádio: «years ago, there was similar talk about when 8 Track, cassette and later CD players were integrated into cars. That same "radio is dead" talk. Radio is resilient. It was given it's last rites in 1955 when TV became mainstream»[1];

O modelo herdado /construido a partir da herança televisiva deixou a rádio sobreviver mas amarrou-a a um esquema de consumo secundário extremamente passivo. Por isso há apenas ouvintes (e não os que escutam)?

A rádio é o meio mais passivo de todos; de tal maneira passivo que não precisa de atenção, deixa que quem ouve faça outras coisas em primeiro lugar;

esta é a conveniência da rádio actual, dos ultimos 50 anos. Ora ouvir (usar) por conveniencia não é um bom atributo, um bom trunfo (é pouco...), quando a rádio, continuando a ser conveniente, tiver a concorrência de meios mais convenientesm, deixa de ser conveniente? É o que acontece no presente (e tenderá a acontecer no futuro). Quando houver terminais multimédia operados por voz no carro, quando os leitores de m+úsica já vierem com milhoes de musicas por um baixo preço, a rádio deixa de ser tão conveniente

3.0 A rádio tal como a conhecemos; ainda sem o impacto da net; no fundo, a rádio do passado e do presente; a rádio tem sido um sucesso, e um bom negócio; os sinais de crise que se acentuaram sempre estiveram latentes mas não teriam impacto; o sentimento bipolar; três fases: negação, confusão, adesão

3.1 Os sinais de crise que existiam antes do impacto da digitalização (não são os sinais da crise geração iPod): queda nas audiencias; queda nas receitas publicitárias, quena na cotação das bolsas, queixas relativamente à falta de variedade na oferta das progranações e na estagnação tecnológica; as ameaças que apareceram;

3.2 O optimismo; a negação; a historia não se repete [ESTE OPTIMISMO VAI SER UMA CONSTANTE,. UMA MARCA DESTA INDUSTRIA/ACTIVIDADE; APARECE SEMPRE QUE HÁ PROBLEMAS; SEMPRE QUE HÁ DIFICULDADES]

3.3 A net põe em causa a ideia de rádio (transição e hibridismo); os primeiros sinais; evoluir ou reinventar-se?

La radio ha pasado unos años desbordada por la innovación cnológjca y programática de la televisión y ha perdido audiencia por la entrega de la sociedad a ésta. Sin embargo, la adio ha resistido y se mantiene con vigor.» (CHerreros, 2007: 12)

«One of the many reasons radio has lost the next generation is that music stations are unremarkable. They are vanilla. Sound the same. Too repetitious. Too many commercials. Too phony. Not real» (Jerry del Colliano, Radio: Bob Dylan, Program Director, Inside Music Media, 27/06/08 http://insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com/2008/06/radio-bob-dylan-program-director.html) 

(justifica-se este optimismo? um optimismo que esquece as ameaças, apenas vê as oportunidades

«Hoy por hoy, la radio no es un medio obsoleto, todo lo contrario, es el medio más vivo y más inmediato e, incluso, tenemos la posibilidad de escuchar desde cualquier parte del mundo los programas más seguidos y las emisoras líderes del país que más nos lnterese, gracias a Internet» (Peñafiel, 2007: 36) 

A rádio que chega até à década de 90 do século passado é basicamente aquela que Lazarsfeld ajudou a idealizar e que Adorno criticou. Mudaram algumas coisas, como o local de escuta, que passou de casa para o carro, e perdeu-se a socialização dessa escuta (de acto colectivo passou a ser individual), mas a rádio é basicamente a mesma, a mesma industria cultural: mesmo a segmentação da oferta, última grande 'transformação' que marcou a rádio pós-televisão, pode ser vista como a evolução natural da procura - inevitável - de públicos mais adequados aos interesses dos anunciantes, que não se importam de gastar mais para ter menos publico, desde que esse público seja o certo (da mesma forma que, há que o reconhecer, essa segmentação da oferta também corresponderá a uma certa segmentação social e cultural ao nível dos mais variados interesses especializados- que a digitalização continua a potenciar, até chegar aos interesses individuais)

«Once I published this article in Radio & Records noting the difference in listening between college grads and non-college grads, I have been rightfully asked the following question: "Has it always been this way?" So I looked at the diary data from the sample of diarykeepers from our longstanding series of studies with Arbitron.

In 1998: Non-College Grads ages 25-54 listened to an average of 102 Quarter-Hours per week

College Grads ages 25-54 listened to an average of 86 Quarter-Hours per week

In 2008: Non-College Grads ages 25-54 listened to an average of 100 Quarter-Hours per week

College Grads ages 25-54 listened to an average of 70 Quarter-Hours per week

In addition, the portion of 25-54s that are College graduates increased from 33% of 25-54s to 41% of 25-54s.  What does this mean? That nearly all the 25-54 losses in TSL over the last decade are coming from college grads. The Non-grads are listening virtually the same amount.» Has Radio Lost the College Grads? Larry Rosin Edison Media research 10/06/08

O que mostra este estudo é que a queda nas audiências de rádio é genérica e não apenas na geração iPod; esta apenas radicaliza este afastamento (mas as queixas são genéricas e não específicas).

USADO «Perante esta realidade de múltiplas ofertas – juntando a crescente digitalização de milhões de canções, descarregadas legal ou ilegalmente em grandes quantidades, e a multiplicação de editoras que existem sobretudo na Internet (web-labels) – é possível concluir que o consumidor tem o controlo: 1) Os fãs deixaram de estar dependentes da rádio (ou de terem de comprar o disco) para contactarem com determinado artista; 2) Os fãs são cada vez mais interactivos: pedem, exigem, sugerem. Comunicam; 3) Uma canção vive e pode conseguir sucesso sem chegar à rádio. (...)  A rádio, habituada a fabricar os sucessos, confronta-se com uma nova realidade: ter de se associar a esses sucessos para não perder ouvintes – que provavelmente já os conhecem de outros acessos.» (Meneses, 2007: 5)

UMA RELAÇÂO PASSIVA E PERFEITA ENTRE RÁDIO E INDUSTRIA MUSICAL: «A decisão sobre a inclusão ou não nas listas de difusão era, aliás, um dos três grandes problemas colocados pelas rádios à indústria, juntamente com a formatação por estilos de música, que obriga a uma arrumação nem sempre pacífica, e a estratégia das editoras, que procura “vender o máximo de cópias do mínimo de produtos, o que, dada a expansão da rádio aos níveis local e mundial, permite concluir que o aumento do tempo de emissão se fez difundindo a mesma música” (Neves, 1999:74). Tirando estas excepções, indústria e rádios casaram durante décadas sem crises: de uma forma muito simples, as editoras davam a música às rádios, as rádios divulgavam-na. Tudo de borla, portanto, evitando com que as editoras gastassem muito em publicidade e as rádios tivessem de pagar pelos conteúdos que transmitiam (Neves, 1999:73). A construção de programas com base no top de vendas será provavelmente a representação máxima da relação passiva entre indústria e rádio» (Meneses, 2007: 7)

«Sin embargo el momento radiofónico actual es complejo como pocos en la historia del medio y requiere una abnegada e ingeniosa atención. Y si la circunstancia merece esmero, reflexión y vigilancia es porque la situación es mucho más peligrosa que la generada por la llegada de la televisión. Posiblemente este sea el conflicto más complejo de los vividos por la radio hasta el momento presente porque afecta a su propia raíz. A la radio y - no se olvide-, a los demás medios de comunicación" (Faus Belau in Martinéz- Costa, 2001: 16)

MARTINÉZ-COSTA, Maria (ed) (2001).Reiventar la radio. Pamplona: Ediciones

«Radio, shedding talent as fast as it loses audience, is rapidly becoming irrelevant to the younger generation»

fonte: FISHER, Mark, Weakening Signals Washington Post, 1/06/08

«Depressed by the rise of new technologies and their own fading place in the media landscape, neither those who own and run AM and FM radio stations nor even the new (but not new enough) satellite pay radio services are nurturing the kind of eccentric, iconoclastic voices that made radio so alluring from the 1950s into the '80s. Through those decades, when TV dominated American popular culture, radio was at once a mass medium and a clubhouse, a place where listeners could believe themselves to be part of an unseen community of like-minded people. Today, with the Internet having taken over as the primary provider of semi-private meeting spots, radio stations are cutting costs and bleeding talent, ceding the leading edge to the Web's collection of micro-audiences and the iPod's promise of infinite, but closely held, choice (...) Yet the more I listened to the likes of Pandora.com, Last.fm, Slacker.com and all manner of music blogs and Web radio, the more I heard the sound of automation -- sleek, efficient recommendation engines scientifically selecting the music I am most likely to like, yet missing out almost on what radio once offered: a glimpse into the hearts and passions of personalities who knew what music was new and cool, voices that offered a guided tour of unknown worlds, and sometimes even a frontal assault of the unexpected.» fonte: FISHER, Mark, Weakening Signals Washington Post, 1/06/08

.

«In the Spring of 2007, if one aggregates all of Arbitron's diary markets (essentially the whole country except for Philadelphia and Houston), the weekly listening was as follows:

Not a College Grad: 18 hours 45 minutes
College Grad: 15 hours 45 minutes

Incredibly, I've never seen this talked about before, despite the fact that it has been possible to find this data all along. But this finding actually understates the difference. That's because the 'non-college-grad' group includes all the teenagers, who have always given significantly less Time Spent Listening (TSL) to radio. So look at the numbers if we look at listening among 25-54 year olds:

Not a College Grad: 21 Hours 15 minutes
College Grad: 15 hours 45 minutes

Wow. As you can see in Figure 1, below, college grads listen to five and one-half fewer hours of radio per week, on average, than those who have not attained a college education.

Figure 1

Is it that the programming available from commercial radio is just not appealing enough to college graduates? Has our programming simply chased college grads away from the dial? Or is it that college graduates just have less time available for radio listening and more income to buy replacements like iPods and Satellite Radio, and it is not a function of the programming?» fonte: «Has Radio Lost the College Grads?, Edison Media Research, Larry Rosin, Maio (30?) 2008

(uma visão optimista...)

«Bob Pittman may be known to most of the world as an Internet visionary, but he was a broadcaster first and he told the NAB Show Radio Luncheon yesterday that it is frustrating to hear people talk about radio as if there’s something wrong with the business. “Radio is mobile, it’s easy to use, it has a lot of choice,” Pittman said. Repeating comments we’d heard him use previously when talking about new media, he said what makes a great consumer business is convenience and brand – and “radio wins on both counts.” The one-time radio programmer noted, “I think there are probably no better brand builders in the world than radio programmers.” Despite all of the hype about the Internet replacing broadcasting, Pittman, who is currently an investor in radio and TV groups as well as new media, insisted “the Internet is not television or radio.” People still turn to broadcasting for entertainment, while they use the Internet to manage their lives.» fonte: Pittman: Internet does not compete with radio and television, RBR 15 April, 2008

(será um erro entender a Internet como uma espécie de meio que vem concorrer com os clássicos; a Internet não concorre com um, mas com todos. Mas a Internet concorre, integrando os anteriores, juntando-os, convergindo, criando algo de novo, fazendo coexistir os antigos mas de forma diferente, alterando-os; se a Internet fosse um meio concorrente, a história poderia repetir-se; assim, do que estamos a falar é de uma nova categoria, de uma nova ideia de comunicação)

«The history and evolution of media resemble that of species in nature: The introduction of a new medium (species) typically changes the uses and interactions among the existing media. This is not surprising given that the system consisting of media and ecological systems are both based on very similar principles (e.g., the survival of the fittest). (...) This is, in fact, how media have evolved as well Following the introduction of movies over a short span of time, they enjoyed their golden age, accompanied by relatively little change, until radio came along. The evolution of radio, television, and interactive media has followed the same general pattern. (...).

To survive radio’s challenge, the motion picture industry was forced to move to sound and later to color films. More direct and compelling challenges to movies came from television. Television provided the same entertainment function that movies provided but with the added convenience of delivering programs directly to homes. To survive this threat, the movie industry had to cooperate with television by providing materials for broadcasting. As for radio, it had to reinvent itself to survive the television challenge. Radio was forced to move from being a staple at the center of the living room to becoming portable and physically going to where television could not. The television industry, in an effort to survive with multimedia, introduced high-definition television, a breakthrough toward the computerization of home television sets. This digital technology is expected to provide multimedia Internet services for the television networks and local stations. Radio, too, has taken the step toward digital broadcasting in what is referred to as digital audio broadcasting. (PAIK, 2001: 24-25) 

«(...)by 1930, 46% of American households had a radio, and 10 years later that number had grown to more than 80%. By 1970, radio ownership had already reached 98%, nearly the current ownership rate (99%). Of course, one may question the appropriateness of radio ownership as a measure of radio's popularity, for it is entirely possible that a great many radios simply sat unused, collecting dust. However, as seen (...), the increase in ownership is matched by a comparable increase in the number of radio stations» (Paik, 2001: 11)

«In-home radio listening – as was the case in the ’07 study – is diminished as respondents continue to utilize other media in their residences. (This was an alarming pattern that we saw up-close and personal in "The Bedroom Project.") In-car and at work listening, and audio streaming display positive momentum.»

«TechSurvey 2008», Jacobs Media, Março 2008

OU COMO SE PROVA QUE UM MEIO PODE SUBSTITUIR O OUTRO SE TIVER VANTAGENS SOBRE O ANTERIOR:

«The Pony Express operated from 1860 to 1861. It was an expensive service for letters and most people couldn’t afford the up to .00 dollar cost of sending mail. The founders always assumed the federal government would come through with a contract to provide most of their income. It never happened. The U.S. government decided a new technology called the “telegraph” would be better and eventually, The Pony Express folded. Both services were able to deliver messages – one by traditional letters via riders, the other by Morse Code via wire. Both the Pony Express and telegraph delivered the same content. The telegraph just was able to do it faster and cheaper.

Is AM and FM today’s “Pony Express” and WiMax the next “telegraph”? When WiMax takes hold, Internet Radio and Podcasting might be able to do it better than AM and FM because startup costs for stations will be very modest, no one will need to apply for a license to broadcast, the F.C.C. won’t have control over WiMax-enabled radio stations (at least as of now), and stations will be able to narrowcast to a smaller audience with more unique content because less overhead will make it easier to support niche programming.  Given that scenario, this is no time for anyone in traditional Radio to look down their nose at the upstarts and wannabes because it is only a matter of time until they are given the technological footing to compete equally. All they will have to do is come up with good content – better content than old media did.» (How Will We Define Radio in the Future?  Corey Deitz, 3/01/07)

«Virtually everyone in radio believes the medium has become less fun, less creative, and just plain less worth listening to than at any other point since its birth» (Fisher, 2007: 294) 

«Stories about "why radio sucks" and "why radio stinks" popped up in the press. When Prince opened a concert at New York's Lincoln Center by asking, "How do y'all like your radio stations, New York City?" the crowd responded with a booming chorus of boos. At FCC meetings, activists favoring radio diversity dogged commissioners, urging them to defy the big corporations and return control of the airwaves to the public. And on the radio, Tom Petty, recently inducted into the Rock  the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, sang "The Last DJ": 'And there goes the last DJ

Who plays what he wants to play

And says what he wants to say»

(Fisher, 2007: 295) 

«Payola - gifts and payments to deejays made as inducement for playing records - wasn't illegal. Nor was payola new - in the heyday of sheet music, song pluggers handed out cash to get barroom pianists to play their tunes, and in the 1930s and '40s, promoters paid bandleaders to push their songs» (Fisher, 2007: 79)

«Others stuck to legal forms of persuasion. "I never gave a disc jockey money in my life," says Frank Falise, a promoter who worked the mid-Atlantic states for Universal, MCA, Capitol, and other record companies. "But you took care of those jocks very well. You made sure they got plenty of records, backstage meets with the artists, photos with the artists, great tickets. If they can take their listeners backstage to see Elton John, that builds their audience and helps them make more money at their station. There's no payola the way it was forty years ago, but the business was always based on relationships. "» (Fisher 2007: 288) 

«(...) the number of licensed radio stations has continued to creep up. It grew to 13,977 as of Dec. 31, 2007; that compares to 13,837 stations at the end of the year before. Breaking it down, there are 4,776 AMs, 6,309 FMs and 2,892 educational FMs, which the FCC lists separately. (...) there are 22 more AMs in the United States than one year ago, 43 more FMs and 75 more FM educationals.

More interestingly, how do these latest figures compare to 10 years ago? The numbers tell a 10-year story: no growth in AM signals, but boom times for FM educationals, translators and boosters. Total stations in 1997 would have been described as “above 12,000.” As of December of that year, according to FCC statistics we compared, there were 4,762 AMs — virtually no net change in AM station count from today (and down from 4,804 at the end of 2002; AMs were just shy of 5,000 in 1990). There were about 5,540 FMs 10 years ago, so that category is up about 14% in the decade since; and there were only about 1,900 FM educationals, a number that grew 50% in the subsequent decade.»

fonte: «Number of Licensed Radio Stations Grows Radioworldnewsbites 21,03,08

- The decline in sales – radio is losing advertising revenue to interactive media.

- Radio listening is down.

-Radio appeals mostly to Gen X and baby boomers.

- iPods, Smartphones and the Internet are cooler than radio.

- Gen Y doesn’t listen to radio. Their solution: try to make them think that your limited playlist station is playing the most variety.

- Too many commercials.

The totals for 2004-07 also are boosted by non-spot/off-air revenue and increased network participation in the survey in the last two years.»

fonte: radioworld newsbytes What a Difference a Decade Makes 7/02/08 

«JP Morgan analysts think radio ad revenue will fall 3% this year.

John Blackledge and Aaron Chew issued their outlook saying cyclical and “secular” pressures will produce a down year.

“We estimate that radio industry advertising revenue should decline 3% in 2008, driven by continued secular pressure (with continued audience losses leading to loss of ad share) as well as cyclical pressure as the soft macro trends should lower demand for advertising on the medium,” they wrote.

“We believe the radio industry is already amidst an advertising recession,” given declines in the second half of last year. The radio industry has underperformed nominal GDP by 5% on average annually since 2004, they said, but in recent months it underperformed by about 9%.

“We believe the below average underperformance will likely persist for most of 2008, offset to some degree by political spending” in the second half.»

fonte:Radio Is in Ad Recession, JP Morgan Analysts Say RWOnline, 29/02/08

«O rádio convencional, mais cedo ou mais tarde, se transformará num parente do antigo gramofone, um símbolo de um período, objecto destinado à exposição em museus» (Kischinhevsky, 2007: 126) 

«Uma tecnologia não erradica necessariamente a outra, emhora possa tomar espaços e atenções das mídias já existentes. Mas podemos tomar como exemplo os discos de vinil, que, no espaço de poucos anos, foram transformados em sucata (ou, na melhor das hipóteses, itens de colecionador), graças a um inédito acordo entre as grandes corporações da indústria fonográfica. Acordo esse que estabeleceu hábeis estratégias para conquistar a adesão do consumidor a uma nova tecnologia, digital, enbora de qualidade nem sempre superior à dos antigos long-plays analógicos.«(KISCHINHEVSK, 2007: 14).

e o DAT da sony, que não se impôs como substituto da cassete analógica, acabando por desaparecer.

Broadcast radio faces challenges from satellite radio companies for listeners, from the Internet for advertisers and even from automakers who are making it increasingly easy for drivers to turn their car stereos into mirror images of their iPods and skip the radio altogether.

Cutbacks haven’t worked out so well, serving only to speed the exit of listeners and making it harder to maintain smaller and smaller profit margins. Increasingly conservative playlists have made radio less essential to even the most casual of music fans, who don’t feel like they’re missing anything if they don’t listen every day since the same 10 or 15 songs are in heavy rotation for a month or longer.»

«NEW YORK – February 20, 2008: Reacting to the RAB's report that overall radio revenue declined 6%, Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker today issued a report in which she described the result as a "horrible start to the new year" for the industry. In the report, Ryvicker also cut her Q1 forecast for the industry.
Whereas she previously had expected the industry to be flat versus year-ago levels, Ryvicker now predicts that the industry will post a 0.8% revenue decline for 2008.
She said, "We think Street estimates for 2008 are at risk and that most numbers will come down during the next two weeks as companies report Q4 2007 results and provide color on Q1 2008."» 21/02/08 radio INK 'Horrible Start' To 2008

INSIDE RADIO Thursday, February 21, 2008

Radio's worst January in more than a decade. There's no way to sugarcoat the stark fact that 2008 had a rough start for radio. Revenues fell 6% in January. But non-spot revenues continued to grow, increasing 11% last month. Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker says this "horrible start to the year" worries her. After just one month of data, she no longer thinks radio has hit bottom - and is projecting another negative year.

Big growth for online radio listening and revenues. Online music radio online logged 4.85 billion total listening hours last year, a 26% increase from 2006. AOL's Shoutcast remains the top destination, followed by Clear Channel Online. AccuStream iMedia Research calculates ad revenues increased 194% to million last year - and that figure could jump to 0 million this year.

In fiscal 2007, which ended in August, the radio industry posted growth of 3.9%, according to figures published by the Radio Marketing Bureau. While this growth was restrained in comparison to a 6.5% increase a year earlier, the first four months of fiscal 2008 have so far produced growth of 5.6%,says Mr. Bayard.

Among radio’s strengths, he says, is its cost-effectiveness relative to other media, and the fact that radio rates highest for “the ability to connect with the consumer” who is close to making a purchase.»

fonte: Signals strong for radio industry, Astral and Corus, Posted: February 19, 2008, 9:02 AM by Jonathan Ratner

1. Our listeners are going away. (...)
2. Radio has maltreated its listeners and advertisers. Too much clutter, too many station promos, too little leadership, and too much research. We follow our listeners instead of leading them. We pander to them. (...)
3. Consolidation has helped the quality of the radio product…the actual “on air” presentation. It has not helped to expand the range of programming choices available to our audiences. This has been a huge disappointment.
4. Consolidation has done harm to one of our most basic and important tenets of commercial radio: the ideal of localism.

«Radio reaches a large portion of adults on a weekly basis, but time spent listening is at a 27-year low. In September 2002, Duncan’s American Radio reported that the “average persons rating” – the percentage of the U.S. population listening to the radio in any average quarter hour – has experienced a near-17 percent drop in listening over the last 13 years.» Future of Music Coalition, Radio Deregulation: Has It Served Citizens and Musicians?

«Many people are dissatisfied with the state of commercial radio in the U.S. today. “It all sounds the same” and “there’s nothing there for me” are common complaints. Observers point to consolidation in the radio industry as the cause. Since 1996, when Congress deregulated the radio industry, a wave of mergers has placed the majority of radio stations into the hands of a few large corporations. During this time the number of independent radio stations shrank. Uniform corporate policies and market research-driven programming have reduced the variety of music on commercial radio. One critic summed up this approach as “play the fewest songs that appeal to the most people.” Also problematic is the requirement that record companies make big payments to promoters in order to get their songs on the radio. As a consequence it is harder than ever for new acts to be heard on commercial radio; only the biggest and best-financed acts get access to the commercial airwaves. Bill Wyman of the Rolling Stones recently said, “The Rolling Stones would never make it now.”»

BREEDING, Andy (2004), Internet Music Services, MA: Giant Path, pag 18

«Constant denial -- that's what's killing radio.

Last week we heard the same old song again at the Southern California Broadcasters Association gathering. I don't know about you but these guys are starting to scare me.

Radio-Info's Tom Taylor reported that Clear Channel's John Hogan said "performance and capability is not our problem. Our problem is one of perception". (...) They have driven off the next generation -- have no clue what they want -- and think the problem is about perception. No one cares about perception -- they care about content and -- I might add -- how it is delivered.»

fonte: Jerry Del Colliano, Redfine Radio -- Don't Reinvent It 4/02/08

«Owing to numerous media alternatives available, overall time spent listening (TSL) has slipped 13% between 1998 and 2006, but less than an hour in the four years from 2002 to 2006. The largest erosion since 1998 for men has been with 18-24s, with a decline of 17%; for women, the largest decline has been among Teens, whose TSL has decreased 23%. The least slippage in time spent listening among men during those eight years has been with 45-54s, losing less than 6%; among women, it is the 45-54 group, down 9%»

fonte: Radio Today 2007, Arbitron, pag 91

«A friend put together this list of key radio companies before yesterday's roller coaster ride on the Dow. Look how well they have built shareholder value for their investors.

Spanish Broadcasting
High 42.00 -- Recently 1.54 -- Loss of 96.33% (1.50 yesterday)

Emmis
High 62.34 -- Recently -- 2.47 -- Loss of 96.04% (2.62 yesterday)

Radio One
High 31.33 -- Recently 1.77 -- Loss of 94.35% (1.68 yesterday)

Citadel Broadcasting
High 22.79 -- Recently 1.69 -- Loss of 92.58% (1.52 yesterday)

Regent
High 14.19 -- Recently 1.49 -- Loss of 89.50% (1.32 yesterday)

Salem
High 33.65 -- Recently 4.63 -- Loss of 86.24% (3.93 yesterday)

Entercom
High 67.75 -- Recently 11.00 -- Loss of 83.76% (11.00 yesterday)

Cumulus (Private buyout in progress)
High 22.70 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.01% (5.43 yesterday)

Saga
High 23.44 -- Recently 5.90 -- Loss of 74.83% (5.97 yesterday)

Beasley
High 19.34 -- Recently 5.05 -- Loss of 73.89% (4.48 yesterday)

Cox Radio
High 34.67 -- Recently 11.10 -- Loss of 67.98% (10.89 yesterday)

Entravision
High 20.31 -- Recently 7.27 -- Loss of 64.20% (6.03 yesterday)

Clear Channel (Private Buyout in Progress)
High 91.50 -- Recently 34.42 -- Loss of 62.38% (32.14 yesterday)

CBS
High 35.50 -- Recently 24.00 -- Loss of 32.39% (22.28 yesterday)
(New issue missing most of the loss).»

fonte: «Radio's "Recession" Started A Long Time Ago», Jerry Del Coliano, 23/01/08

Continua a haver quem pense que basta olhar para o passado para a rádio sobreviver, que a rádio se reinventará por si própria. Como?

«Acontece, porém, que este meio sempre soube reinventar-se e ultrapassar todas as crises, atraindo novas gerações de ouvintes. A rádio serviu regimes ditatoriais e foi também a via usada para iniciar revoluções. Foi amadora e formou profissionais. Foi pirata e impôs novas frequências. Foi defensora do culto do programa de autor e apostou nos ouvintes segmentados. Foi um meio de comunicação unidireccional, bidireccional e agora é interactivo. Alguém tem dúvidas de que a rádio é um meio fascinante cheio de futuro?» (Rui Camarinha, Briefing, 19/10/07).

Vale a pena citar Mark Ramsey: «the absurdity of relating the present state of the radio (yes, radio) industry to any time in its ancient history. For example, the birth of FM back in the late 60's to 70's lived in a technological environment which this chart clearly shows has completely disappeared»

«Beaten down by the market for yet another year, radio companies appear poised to face more of the same in 2008, with projections typically calling for minuscule to nonexistent growth in advertising revenue and increased competition for listeners as a foregone conclusion.The current year certainly looks poised to go down as another difficult period for the industry, with total advertising revenue down 2% year over year through three quarters, according to figures released by the Radio Advertising Bureau Dec. 3, data that also showed revenue figures sagging further in the latter portion of the year, with third-quarter revenue down 5% year over year. (...) Wachovia Equity analyst Marci Ryvicker, for instance, recently said she now views radio as a "no growth medium" and puts zero percent growth as a likely, and potentially a "best case scenario" for 2008.  (...) Ryvicker noted three major trends that will conspire to hold radio revenues down in 2008 and beyond: the flight of ad dollars to new media, the generally depressed state of the economy and a slowdown in overall ad expenditures.»

fonte: MarketWeek: Radio revenues to get 'down' in 2008, SNL Interactive December 14, 2007 1:12 PM ET By Dave Hendrick

Eu tenho! «Meio fascinante» e «oásis»????

A frase é de Rui Camarinha, no Briefing: «A rádio em Portugal está a atravessar o deserto mas já tem o oásis à frente. Será miragem? Os números indicam que há uma série de estações de qualidade com fraca audiência e outras tantas que não se percebe por que são tão ouvidas. A verdade é que a rádio no seu todo perde ouvintes, tem menor notoriedade e regista pouco potencial para atrair investimento publicitário, pelo menos quando comparado com outros meios de comunicação, como a televisão e, principalmente, a internet. Numa frase, a rádio deixou de ser sexy.»

É um estudo inovador, realizado por Mark Ramsey e apresentado no recente NAB Barcelona (realizado com base nos resultados do PPM).

Mark mostra que no momento em que o microfone se abre aumentam as probabilidades dos ouvintes desligarem:

«Listeners are almost 4x more likely to tune away from WBEN during an open mic than during a song» (imagem 79)

O que fazer? «Actions... • An open mic is a privilege, not a right; • Get to the point • Use that time wisely • Keep it tight • Plan, don’t Spam» (imagem 80); ou seja a solução não é calar os dj's/animadores

(tambem pode ser acedido a partir daqui)

«With the clock ticking toward a new year, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller projects radio will have another “challenging” year as revenues hold flat with “many forces on either side of the scale.” Miller says “Incredibly, one of the biggest positives for local radio in 2008 is that there will likely be fewer negatives.” On the plus side are more political dollars and increasing web revenues.»

fonte: «2008 Forecast: “The scale could tip either way.”», Inside Radio, 29/10/07

«Over the last several months firms have either reassigned or fired their analysts covering radio. A year ago 24 analysts were assigned to radio. Now, only a dozen cover the industry. Just as stocks have sunk to multi-year lows and their worth has been reduced, some of radio’s biggest companies are going private. Deutsche Bank’s Drew Marcus says radio’s trading value “has dried up” and “that’s decreased the need for analysts.”»

fonte: «Radio is falling off Wall Street’s radar. Inside Radio, 15/10/07

Há, pelo menos relativamente aos jornais, quem pense que não (que caíriam de qualquer forma):

«The dark truth for newspapers is that their sales would be in serious decline even if Tim Berners-lee had never invented the internet and Metro was still an idea on the whiteboard. As the Telegraph website's Burton says: "No one has shown me evidence that the internet is making us lose print sales." And those newspapers that enthusiastically embraced free web content early on, such as The Guardian, find their combined web and print circulations in a healthier position than had they continued only to force-feed readers with slabs of Times New Roman. The Guardian's circulation would have fallen far further if it hadn't built up brand loyalty among students with its cluster of excellent sites» (Rob Blackhurst , The freeloading generation, British Journalism Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, 57 (2005))
 

Do relátório da eMarketeer Radio Trends:

«What's hurting traditional radio is its declining share of the media pie, in terms of time spent with media. Folks are listening to less radio as they spend more time on the web. As Macklin puts it in his report, “Traditional radio is losing its significance in people’s lives.". Yet radio still has a huge share, with a weekly cumulative audience of 282.8 million in the U.S., according to data from Bridge Ratings, and in fact some 90 percent of Americans still tune in to traditional radio each week. Further, radio is going through a whole set of changes that promise to widen its appeal, and many of those changes are occurring online. Indeed, Macklin believes that the key drivers in radio's future as an advertising medium will be station web sites and streaming internet audio. The number of traditional radio listeners is expected to remain relatively stable, at 274 million in 2015, but other areas are expected to grow rapidly. The audience for internet radio--simulcasts of traditional radio stations online and internet-only stations--is expected to grow from 72.0 million in 2007 to 187.3 million in 2015, according to Bridge Ratings» (fonte: «Brighter future for radio, despite it all, Media Life Magazine, By Heidi Dawley Sep 5, 2007)

 

«"I've been in the radio biz for over 35 years -- radio was supposed to be dead by now," he [Edward C. Kiernan, general manager of Baltimore's top-rated talk-radio station WBAL, 1090 AM, and its FM counterpart, WIYY, known as 98 Rock] said, ascribing its supposed demise to the advent of television, to the fact that cigarette advertising was removed from the airwaves, to record players, cassette tape recorders, eight-track tapes and, more recently, compact discs. If none of these things killed radio, he suggested, then iPods and satellite radio won't either.» E a Internet?

fonte: MADIGAN, Nick, «Radio may survive this, too», Baltimore Sun, August 26, 2007

«(...) last ten years have been a period of rapid growth of the Internet and mobile communications, which has challenged not only the traditional ideas of radio broadcasting and audio delivery, but also those unique, new extensions for radio broadcasting which DAB was able to promise. Lately, the Internet and mobile phone networks have provided a basis for new nonbroadcast or hybrid audio services (e.g. Podcasting, Visual Radio)» (Ala-Fossi. 2005: 2)

«Hybrid systems are discussed here only very briefly. Visual Radio is Nokia’s architectural innovation, which combines traditional analog FM radio and synchronized visual GPRS data delivery via GSM network (Hedges 2005c). Motorola’s iRadio is another architectural innovation, which makes it possible to listen Internet radio recordings from mobile phone memory via car or home stereo (Klein 2005). In addition, there are some software innovations which aim at bringing podcasting services directly into mobile phones through wireless mobile networks. While Melodeo counts on downloading podcasts from the Internet directly to the phone memory, Pod2Mob software will instead stream the selected podcasts to an applet on the users cell phone (Melodeo 2005, Pod2Mob 2005)» (Ala-Fossi, 2005: 19)

«Os problemas na indústria da música não se limitam às vendas de CD. As rádios rock, que foram durante muito tempo o veículo de marketing preferido pelas editoras, estão a sofrer os mesmos dissabores. Em 1993, os norte-americanos passavam uma média de 23 horas e 15 minutos por semana com a rádio ligada. Na Primavera de 2004, esse número tinha descido para 19 horas e 45 minutos. As audiências de rádio estão agora no mínimo dos últimos 27 anos e é a programação de música rock que parece estar a sofrer mais. (...)

Os especialistas continuam a não chegar a acordo quanto ao principal motivo, mas eis os principais candidatos:

.O aparecimento do fenómeno do iPod: Com um rádio personalizado, quem precisa de banda FM?

.O telemóvel: Os condutores a caminho do trabalho ou de casa, presos no trânsito, eram a salvação da rádio nos anos 80. Actualmente, continuamos a ficar presos nos engarrafamentos, mas optamos por falar ao telefone.

. A Lei das Telecomunicações de 1996 (EUA): Ao acrescentar mil estações de banda FM ao sinal de áudio, esta legislação aumentou a concorrência e provocou estragos no modelo de negócio dos incumbentes. A lei também flexibilizou os limites de propriedade em cada mercado, levando à...

.Clear Channel: Frequentemente acusada dos dissabores da rádio, esta gigante dos media é tanto um sintoma da feroz economia desta indústria quanto uma causa. Uma vez que a Lei das Telecomunicações nos EUA enfraqueceu o negócio das rádios locais em finais da década de 90, a Clear Channel podia ir comprando as estações em dificuldades. A empresa é actualmente proprietária de mais de 1.200 dessas estações, o que corresponde a uma em cada dez. (...)

.A punição da obscenidade pela Comissão Federal de Comunicações (FCC): Sempre fez parte das suas funções policiar aquilo que era dito nas emissões de rádio e televisão, mas a FCC raramente exerceu o seu dever com tanto vigor como nos últimos cinco anos. O principal alvo foi Howard Stern, uma personalidade "terra-a-terra" da rádio com tendência para o obsceno. Depois de incorrer em coimas sem precedentes, Stern acabou por desistir das emissões da rádio terrestrce. No final de 2005, transitou para a rádio por satélite Sirius, onde se estreou - praticamente sem censura - para uma audiência de assinantes em Janeiro de 2006. (...)» (Anderson, 2007: 37/38) 

« (...) In Canada, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters and the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission are seeking smart ways to work with new media. The CAB…

…believes that traditional radio could lose between 4.9 and 8.5 per cent of its listeners by 2010, with revenue losses of between million and million.

The CRTC has said that the rapid changes in digital technologies and distribution of media – such as music and other programming have “presented the radio industry with new opportunities, but also new challenges.”

It cited satellite radio, file-sharing and downloading, podcasting and audio streaming on the internet as “new and more flexible alternatives to the traditional practices of purchasing recorded music and listening to radio broadcasting.” »

fonte: «Radio Killed The Radio Star, Part One» March 20, 2006, Medialoper

Mais sobre esta previsão:

«New technologies like satellite radio and digital players are changing the traditional radio landscape and the industry says it wants help from the CRTC to survive. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission had called for submissions that would be considered in its current review of the country's commercial radio policy. (...) "We no longer have one single and regulated system of radio services delivered over the public airwaves and free of charge to Canadians. Instead, we have both a regulated system of the past and a largely unregulated, parallel system of new delivery platforms for audio content," the CAB said. Canadian private radio is confronted with an unheard-of array of competition for listeners and for revenues." The existence of these new competitors does not necessarily mean that more regulation is required from the CRTC, the group said, "but rather that smarter and more effective regulation needs to be designed." The group believes that traditional radio could lose between 4.9 and 8.5 per cent of its listeners by 2010, with revenue losses of between million and million. The CRTC has said that the rapid changes in digital technologies and distribution of media – such as music and other programming– have "presented the radio industry with new opportunities, but also new challenges." It cited satellite radio, file-sharing and downloading, podcasting and audio streaming on the internet as "new and more flexible alternatives to the traditional practices of purchasing recorded music and listening to radio broadcasting."»

(fonte: Radio group calls for 'smarter, more effective' CRTC policy», CBC.ca, March 16, 2006 )

(da edição de hoje da newsletter Inside Radio, reservada a assinantes):

«Radio's declining time spent listening is just the tip of the iceberg. Consumer media usage declined last year following two consecutive years of decelerating growth. Veronis Suhler Stevenson says the drop is because of changing consumer behaviors and digital media efficiencies which require less time investment»

fonte: «Media usage dips for the first time in a decade», Inside Radio, 14/08/07

Mais:

«For the first time since 1997, consumers spent less time with media in 2006 than they did the previous year, as media usage per person declined 0.5% to 3,530 hours, due to changing consumer behaviors and digital media efficiencies, according to the VSS Forecast. The drop in consumer media usage was driven by the continued migration of consumers to digital alternatives for news, information and entertainment, which require less time investment than their traditional media counterparts. For example, consumers typically watch broadcast or cable television at least 30 minutes per session while they spend as little as five to seven minutes viewing consumer-generated video clips online.  VSS expects consumer media usage to stabilize in 2007 and increase slightly through 2011, as out-of-home media and videogames will be the only major segments to achieve accelerating growth in the forecast period compared with the 2001-2006 timeframe. Overall consumer time spent with media will increase at a CAGR of 0.5% from 2006 to 2011, compared with 0.8% in the previous five-year period. The VSS Forecast is the only source to track, analyze and forecast spending, usage and trends in all 19 segments and more than 100 sub-segments of the U.S. media industry. The VSS Forecast also features the industry’s most accurate spending forecasts, producing a margin of error of +/- 2% for 9 of the last 10 years. The margin of error for the 2006 forecasts was + 0.4%. In addition to shifting their attention to alternative media, consumers are also migrating away from advertising-supported media, such as broadcast TV and newspapers, to consumer-supported platforms, such as cable TV and videogames. Time spent with consumer-supported media grew at a CAGR of 19.8 percent from 2001 to 2006, while time spent with ad-supported media declined 6.3 percent in the period» (fonte: «New VSS Forecast Released», VSS, 7/08/07)

«Radio listening continues to decline. From the fall of 1998 to the fall of 2006, Arbitron found that the average number of listeners per quarter hour fell 6.6%, from about 19.7 million to about 18.4 million, according to the study, which updates a previous radio review done in 2002»

«(...) from de Fall of 1998 to the Fall of 2006, Arbitron reports that the average number of listeners per quarter hour has fallen from approximately 19.7 million to approximately 18.4 million, a drop of 6.6 percent. (...) while listenership declined slightly between the fall of 1998 and the fall of 2000, listener ratings held steady between the summer of 2000 and the early portion of 2005. During 2005, radio listenership appears to have taken another substantial dip. Between fall 1998 and fall 2006 the average annual decline in the average num 0.82 percent. Further analysis, which is beyond the scope of this report, is required to explain whether these changes in radio audience and industry concentration reflect any causal links. The causes of audience decline and industry consolidation may be varied. For example, declining audiences could be related to the availability of alternative products, such as satellite radio, Internet radio, and downloading of digital music»

São os sinais contraditórios do tempo de mudança:

«Canadians are spending less time listening to radio, but the number of stations across the country is rising. As broadcasters chase advertising dollars in robust consumer markets such as Alberta, 29 more radio stations sprang up last year, bringing the total to 1,252, as dozens of new operating licences were awarded. The growth came as Canadians spent an average of 18.6 hours a week listening to the radio in 2006, a drop of half an hour from 2005, according to annual statistics reported by the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission. Average weekly listening time - which includes mornings, at work and while driving, the three points of the day when most people tune in - has fallen substantially from eight years ago, when Canadians averaged 20.5 hours of radio a week, the regulator said. "Since 1999, the overall per capita weekly radio listening levels decreased by almost two hours," the regulator said.

fonte: «Time with radio on the decline», Report on Business.com GRANT ROBERTSON, August 1, 2007

«As rádios portuguesas perderam cerca de 100 mil ouvintes no segundo trimestre deste ano face ao mesmo período do ano passado, tendo a Comercial, a Cidade FM e o Rádio Clube sofrido as maiores quedas. Entre Abril e Junho deste ano, o consumo de rádio rondou uma média de 4,5 milhöes de ouvintes, contra os 4,6 milhöes registados nos mesmos meses de 2006, de acordo com dados hoje divulgados pela Marktest no Bareme-Rádio trimestral.»

fonte: «Rádio: Emissoras perdem 100 mil ouvintes no 2º semestre, Comercial, Cidade», LUSA,09-07-2007

Etiquetas: carro, Internet, Pandora

«El periodista y presentador de Noticias Cuatro Iñaki Gabilondo lamentó la "total pérdida de credibilidad" de la radio en España como consecuencia de un proceso de "enconamiento político" y de las "tertulias espectáculo" que han provocado "lo peor que le podía pasar a las radios", que han quedado "etiquetadas y marcadas políticamente". Gabilondo aseguró que la radio "es incapaz de gestionar la complejidad" del mundo. (...)  "Para nunca más volver a la radio, porque no hay futuro, sólo hay pasado", dijo antes de repasar la historia reciente de la radio y los cambios ocurridos de la implantación de la democracia en España y la llegada de las tertulias radiofónicas. "Se lo debemos al gran olfato de Luis del Olmo, que venía de la radio espectáculo, de la tradición de los programas matinales, y hasta que él lo hizo, era inconcebible escuchar una entrevista a un líder sindical por la mañana", explicó.»

fonte: «Gabilondo: "La radio ha perdido la credibilidad por enconamiento político"», Madridpress.com, 28/06/07

«"A rádio vai morrer muito em breve e só a publicidade é que decidirá por quanto tempo é que ela se mantém". O vaticínio, pessimista, foi assumido quarta-feira ao final da tarde pelo jornalista Luís Filipe Costa durante um seminário na Sociedade Portuguesa de Autores sobre a sobrevivência da rádio, onde estiveram ainda presentes responsáveis como Luis Osório, Luís Montez e António Sala.
O futuro da rádio portuguesa foi o mote do debate e Luís Filipe Costa não foi o único a demonstrar uma visão pessimista sobre o tema. Também Luís Osório, director do Rádio Clube, considerou que a rádio "está numa encruzilhada". E explicou: "por um lado, as receitas publicitárias não param de descer - muito mais se forem vistas à escala da Europa. Por outro, falta a ousadia de pensar que não existem desafios". Para Osório, actualmente, "todas [rádios] se parecem imitar umas às outros". Luís Filipe Costa argumentou que o estado actual da rádio deve-se "às novas tecnologias, como a Internet ou o iPod". Também António Sala revelou reservas sobre o futuro deste meio de comunicação, mas para o comunicador a televisão é a grande responsável. "A televisão esmaga a rádio, é uma luta desleal", afirmou o comunicador, profissional da Rádio Renascença. António Sala, que celebra 40 anos de carreira, aponta a criatividade como uma forma das emissoras se afirmarem no mundo da comunicação. "A rádio tem que se ginasticar e reinventar, sempre com imaginação. Tem que haver a capacidade de arriscar, de tropeçar e de não ser politicamente correcto", referiu. O antigo apresentador do histórico Despertar, e que também fez carreira na televisão, disse ainda que a rádio "tem que tornar os seus possíveis inimigos, como a televisão, em aliados".
Luís Montez, proprietário das rádios Radar, Oxigénio e Capital, foi quem fez o discurso mais optimista ao afirmar que, "agora, mais do que nunca, existe um maior número de rádios especializadas num género musical, existe maior variedade". Ao contrário dos restantes oradores, Luís Montez classificou as novas tecnologias como aliadas da rádio. "Com a chegada da Internet, a rádio ganhou imenso", diz, explicando que "os emails vieram estreitar a comunicação entre os locutores e os ouvintes". Isto porque, nos locais onde não existem frequências para determinadas rádios, os ouvintes podem agora acompanhar as emissões na Net. Luís Filipe Costa deixou claro que "só tornando a ser um espectáculo de som é que a rádio terá um bom futuro". António Sala, apesar das reservas sobre o futuro que se adivinha, rematou com a afirmação: "a rádio não está esgotada".|»

fonte: «"A rádio vai morrer muito em breve"», INÊS DAVID BASTOS, DN, 22/06/07


Luís Filipe Costa deixou claro que "só tornando a ser um espectáculo de som é que a rádio terá um bom futuro". António Sala, apesar das reservas sobre o futuro que se adivinha, rematou com a afirmação: "a rádio não está esgotada".|

«Let's face it -- radio stinks. It's 40 minutes of commercials, 10 minutes of annoying DJs looking to offend, and maybe 10 minutes of music. And in that 10 minutes, you're bound to hear the same five artists multiple times, and the music will generally be the most inoffensive pablum imaginable. DJs are corrupted by payola and stations are driven by the profit motive to turn as much time over to advertising as possible. This sorry state of affairs comes just as listeners have a broad array of new options -- satellite broadcasting, the iPod-driven culture of user-created playlists, and Internet radio stations like Pandora and Last.FM, raising real doubts about whether broadcast radio will be able to pull out of its slump and find its creative spark. (...)»

fonte: «Notes From The Future Of Radio», Martin H. Bosworth, ConsumerAffairs.Com, 15/06/07

«Radio is at an exciting point in its history. Total listening in the UK reached a record high of 45 million listeners in the final quarter of 2006, with 90% of the population tuned-in every week. At the same time, the number of households which have DAB reached 16% (up 44% on the previous year), while listening via other platforms is also increasing. Listener choice has increased considerably as new stations, offering new Formats, have been launched over the past few years by both commercial radio (e.g. rock, jazz, chill-out, speech) and the BBC.» (The Future of Radio, Ofcom, 17/04/07)

«“The conventional thinking over the past couple of years has been that new technologies were going to overpower radio and threaten its relevance to the American consumer,” said AMS President/CEO Ed Seeger.  “Well, we’ve heard all that before.  Radio was going to become obsolete when television came along, and then when the eight-track cassette was installed in cars, and, most recently, when the computer revolution began.  It didn’t happen, and it isn’t happening now.”»

Baseado nestes numeros: «According to the AMS study results, 64 percent of those surveyed said they listen to the radio every day, while 69 percent say they listen more or the same amount as five years ago. Also, 84 percent said they expect that in five years, they will continue to listen more or about the same amount as they currently do. Additionally, 64 percent described radio as important to their everyday lives, with 84 percent describing radio as important to American life in general. In an AMS study from April of last year, only 36 percent of those surveyed had listened to Internet radio. One year later, 67 percent have listened to radio online, with 47 percent saying they anticipate listening to Internet radio in the future. Only six percent of respondents said they had listened to radio via a cell phone though.»

fonte: «FMQB, «AMS Study Finds Radio Still Going Strong», 5/04/07

«The radio is a magnificent invention. It transports information and music in a manner that my English major mind cannot even grasp-for free. Radio was hilarious and endearing as voiced by Jon Lovitz in the Brave Little Toaster. We should all love the radio.

However, the radio stinks. Driving in my car, I could do without hearing "Walk It Out" for the seventh consecutive time. DJs really love to hear themselves talk, and they should be rounded up and kept in a pen not unlike the ones that Sawyer and Kate were held in by the Others on Lost. The radio has helped make the likes of Nickelback and Breaking Benjamin famous. Ignore the radio, and pay attention to these bands that have existed outside the trainwreck of Top 40 music.»

fonte: «Boycott your radio», Jess McCauley '07, 03/29/07

«A recent FCC analysis of satellite competition determined that the relevant market for satellite radio consists solely of Sirius and XM. The agency relied on antitrust law and the Department of Justice merger guidelines in finding that other audio services such as terrestrial radio (including HD Radio), iPods, and Internet radio are not competitive substitutes. Sirius and XM have tried to justify their proposed merger based on competition from iPods, HD Radio and other forms of audio entertainment. "The reality is that satellite radio competes with an awful lot of audio services -- terrestrial radio, Internet radio, with cell phones when hooked up to Bluetooth, and we compete with MP3 players," said Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin testifying before the Senate Judiciary's Subcommittee on Antitrust Competition last week. "This FCC decision that the current duopoly of XM and Sirius do not compete with radio, iPods or any other audio sources in the satellite radio market further undermines the arguments made by XM and Sirius to obtain a government-sanctioned monopoly," said NAB President/CEO David K. Rehr. "While the FCC clearly intends to examine all issues surrounding the XM/Sirius merger, the hurdle the parties must overcome to convince the FCC to change direction is very high."»

fonte: «FCC: Sirius, XM Do Not Compete with Terrestrial Radio », 30/03/07, Radio Online 

«The use of iPods, portable podcasting, satellite signals, digital HD radio, Internet streaming, and even phones as music-listening devices all grew. There were further signs that the new technologies were beginning to have an impact on traditional radio, from audience behavior and economics to transforming the ownership and strategy of the industry and altering the projections for the future. For now, the size of traditional radio’s audience remains fairly stable. But the amount of time people spend with it is beginning to ebb. (...) The only notion that seems clear is that the first major new communication technology of the 20th century — radio — is changing rapidly and appears likely to survive the early years of the21 st. The form or forms the medium will take, however, are still shifting.»

fonte:  The State of the news Media 2007

national radio or to streaming web stations and Podcasts» (Berry, 149)

A culpa é (também) da programação:

«If radio serves to meet basic human needs at a variety of different levels [«All five of Maslow’s basic human needs can be fulfilled through the act of radio listening, the level of need being dependent upon the individual’s hierarchical position at any given moment in time.  Radio meets physiological, safety, belongingness and love, esteem and self-actualization needs in a variety of different ways and listeners can engage fulfilment simply by selecting the format type that meets their requirements at any specified period of time»], then it is important that radio provides the necessary variety of programming to fulfil the needs of all listeners.» (Radio Listening as a Function of Basic Human Need: Why Did Maslow Listen To Radio? By Morris W. Shanahan1 , New Zealand Broadcasting School, and Nicholas Brown, The Radio Network, New Zealand , 2002)

«McDonaldization of radio» será uma derivação da expressão McJob, sinónimo de trabalho sem qualificação na indústria do fast food, popularizada no livro «Generation X» de Douglas Coupland, de 1991. 

«Exasperated listeners weary of hearing the same songs over and over on the radio may have something to cheer about: a pair of innovative deals that could shake up the music playlists of some of the nation's largest radio-station chains.
Four major radio broadcast companies have tentatively agreed to pay the government .5 million and provide 8,400 half-hour segments of free airtime for independent record labels and local artists in separate settlements aimed at curbing the persistent practice known as "payola,'' according to sources.
Payola - generally defined as radio stations accepting cash or other consideration from record companies in exchange for airplay - has been around as long as the radio industry and was made illegal following a series of scandals in the late 1950s.
Two Federal Communications Commission officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because final language has not been approved by the full commission, said the monetary settlement is part of a consent decree between the FCC and Clear Channel Communications Inc., CBS Radio, Entercom Communications Corp. and Citadel Broadcasting Corp.
The settlement between the government and the four broadcasters was reached in conjunction with a separate deal designed to lead to more airtime for smaller record companies and their lesser-known artists as well as local musicians.
The American Association of Independent Music, a group of independent record labels, has received a commitment from the same four broadcasters for the free airtime, the sources said.
In addition to airplay, the broadcasters and the independent labels have also negotiated a set of "rules of engagement'' that will guide how record company representatives and radio programmers interact.
The free airtime would be granted to companies not owned or controlled by one of the nation's four dominant music labels - Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group, Universal Music Group and EMI Group.
The practice of payola, or "pay-for-play,'' has evolved over the years and become more difficult to track.
In recent years, "independent record promoters'' have acted as middlemen to deliver payments to radio stations in exchange for airplay. Other forms of inducement include lavish prizes meant for listeners that wind up going to station employees; promises by record companies of concerts by well-known artists in exchange for airplay; and payments for promotional expenses and station equipment.
Under the FCC consent decree, broadcasters would agree to closer scrutiny in their dealings with record companies, including limits on gifts, a promise to keep a database of all items of value supplied by those companies, the employment of independent compliance officers to make sure stations are following the rules and even a new "payola hotline'' for employees to report infractions.
Broadcasters admit to no wrongdoing under the three-year settlement, which has not yet been made public»

fonte: «Stations To Pay .5M In FCC Settlement» Billboard.Biz, March 05, 2007, By Associated Press

O guru Al Ries acha que «Radio is a powerful medium with great selectivity at relatively low costs, but Radiado threatens the very existence of the medium. Too much is too much»: O problema, diz, é que a rádio tem excesso de publicidade. Por isso diz que «For every ad that radio stations used to run, it now seems like they run two. Radio, in my opinion, has become Radiado, an extra "ad" inserted at every possible point in the programming». E no seu dia a dia, «My favorite radio personality is Neal Boortz, a nationally syndicated talk-show host who broadcasts out of Atlanta on 171 stations. I listen to Boortz every morning during the commute to my office in Roswell. Yet at the top of the hour, I turn off my radio and don't turn it back on until 8 minutes after the hour. Why? Because that's radio's black hole. Eight solid minutes of commercials, traffic, weather, news and more commercials. The second black hole occurs at the bottom of the hour, but it's not quite as bad. I turn off my radio for only 6 minutes». Por isso conclui que «The biggest health problem in America today is obesity. The biggest advertising problem in America today is obesity, too»

fonte: «How Radio Is Becoming RadiADo», AL Ries, Advertising Age, 4/03/07 

Mark Ramsey já comentou: «(...) ask the deeper question: If radio featured significantly less advertising, would that keep listeners away from their CD's and iPods and satellite radios and TV's and video games? Indeed, would that make the radio industry a healthier one? Less is not more unless less is zero. Then less is called "subscription."»
 

«“Is fragmentation occurring? Sure it is. But it’s always occurred for radio. You (reporter covering the call) write about the iPod. Ten years ago your predecessor was writing about CDs and 20 years before that his predecessor was writing about 8-Tracks. It’s always something.», Cox Radio President/CEO Bob Neil in «Cox's Neil: I'll Take Radio», radio Ink, 1/03/07

Etiquetas: iPod

«Conventional radio stations are losing their grip on the iPod generation as younger listeners shift to new technology, such as MP3 players, satellite radio and the emerging world of music-playing cellphones, the industry is warning Ottawa.In a lengthy document submitted to the federal broadcast regulator yesterday, the industry paints a bleak picture for itself as new technology permeates its market, eroding audiences and eating away at advertising revenue.Falling listenership among teenagers has become a particular concern for the industry, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters (CAB) said in its submission to a sweeping review of the sector being conducted in Ottawa."It is generally agreed that teens have abandoned conventional radio in favour of other audio platforms including peer-to-peer file sharing, music downloading and iPods," says the CAB, which represents Canada's radio companies."The key question this raises is whether today's teens can ever be repatriated to conventional radio." (...) Industry data on declining radio audiences are among the most surprising figures contained in the document. Under the group's worst-case scenario, listenership could fall 16.1 per cent over the next 10 years, causing a 14.5-per-cent drop in advertising revenue. The sector's most optimistic view predicts a 9.6-per-cent drop in listeners during that time, resulting in a 4.8-per-cent decline in revenue.If the industry saw a decline of that proportion last year, it would have cost 8.5-million in advertising revenue, the CAB said. (...) "We are facing an unprecedented level of competition." Mr. Goldstein said in an interview, adding that CHUM is very conscious of the industry's technological changes.  He said achieving "regulatory certainty" from the CRTC is more important. Several broadcasters are concerned that rivals, such as satellite radio, are not bound by the same regulations as conventional radio.The CAB says the fastest erosion of conventional radio listenership is coming in the 12-17 age demographic. (...)

Etiquetas: geraçãoiPod

«weekly cume for traditional radio will slide from 94% of the U.S. population in 2007 to 77% by 2020»

«Bridge Ratings also predicts that weekly cume for traditional radio will slide from 94% of the U.S. population in 2007 to 77% by 2020.

Though that's a huge drop, this estimate is up somewhat from Bridge's previous quarterly projection.

"These new estimates are based on interviews with current listeners of traditional radio (AM/FM). Their overall perception of the medium and their outlook for future use improved during this quarter's interviews," President Dave Van Dyke stated.»

fonte: «... And a Tweak Up for Terrestrial », Radio world, 26/01/07

Etiquetas: audiencias

Corey Deitz acha que sim, a propósito do anúncio da venda de uma parte significativa das estãções da Clear Channel:

«With competing technologies like Internet radio, Satellite Radio, audio content on cell phones, Podcasting, and WiMax, the value of old media AM and FM radio stations continues to fall»

fonte: «Top 10 Radio Stories of 2006», RadioAbout, 25/12/06

Etiquetas: ClearChannel

Partilho com os leitores esta experiência notável:

Ontem uma das minhas séries de televisão favoritas, Cold Case (Casos Arquivados), terminava com uma versão espantosa da música «Somewhere over the rainbow».

Hoje de manhã foi ao Google e conciliei o nome da série e o da música e cheguei lá. Um artista do Haway, já falecido, com um nome impronunciável (Israel "IZ" Kamakawiwo'ole). Como na Amazon não vendem tema a tema, copiei o nome para o iTunes e comprei a música por 0,99$. Mais: fiquei a saber que é a versão mais vendida do «Somewhere over the rainbow); Aqui podem ouvir uma amostra do tema (de borla, claro).

Penso que é mais um caso que demonstra que a rádio musical - se não se posicionar como alternativa digital - ficará obsoleta. Viva a globalização, já agora!

«LOS ANGELES, Dec 13 (Reuters) - A music industry watchdog group released a report on Wednesday saying that radio ownership consolidation has harmed the listening public. The report, released by The Future of Music Coalition, said radio consolidation at the national and local levels has led to fewer choices in radio programming and harmed the listening public and those working in the music and media industries, including DJs, programmers and musicians. Station ownership by radio giants like Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the leading U.S. operator, increased significantly with the passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, which eliminated the national radio ownership cap and revised limits on how many stations a company can own in a local market. In a statement, Peter DiCola, FMC research director, said the Telecommunications Act has backfired in terms of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's goals of increasing competition, localism, and diversity in radio. The report said the top four radio station owners have almost half of the listeners and the top 10 owners have almost two-thirds of listeners. The report also said the "localness" of radio ownership, or ownership by individuals living in the community, has declined between 1975 and 2005 by almost a third. The report said that across 155 markets, radio listenership has declined over the past 14 years, a 22 percent drop since its peak in 1989.»

fonte: «Watchdog says US public hurt by radio consolidation», 13/12/06, reuters

Etiquetas: concentração

«The web will top outdoor advertising in 2007 — with radio its next target. ZenithOptimedia Worldwide CEO Steve King says radio will see its share of the ad pie fall from 8.6% this year to 8% in 2008 while Internet spending grows at a phenomenal 28%. Meanwhile there’s some good news for radio - Meanwhile there’s some good news for radio - read it in today's»

fonte: Inside Radio, 5/12/06

Lembra Mark Ramsey: «Every radio station has an on-ramp to the Internet and the advertising revenue it can provide. What's more, radio has millions of ears that are likewise connected to millions of Internet connections»

E diz a Business Week: «The radio industry won't want to hear this. Advertising dollars are shifting online faster than analysts anticipated. In fact, advertisers will soon spend as much money on the Internet as they do on the airwaves, according to a newly released eMarketer study. On Dec. 6, the New York research firm increased its estimate for 2006 online advertising spending by 0 million, to .4 billion. The new estimate means online advertising will pull in about 5.8% of the more than 1 billion advertisers are expected to spend this year. That's less than radio's 6.9%, according to Universal McCann (IPG), which tracks the radio industry. However, radio's share is declining while online share is growing, says David Hallerman, a senior analyst at eMarketer. By 2007, online advertising will bring in 6.8% of the total and, by 2008, it will bring in 8.1%—putting it well over radio. By some estimates, online ad spending will overtake radio even sooner. Forrester Research (FORR) anticipates online advertising will bring in .4 billion this year—that's a billion more than eMarketer's estimate and would be roughly 6.2% of the total, putting online advertising much closer to overtaking radio.» («Advertising Goes Off the Radio», 7/12/06, Business Week.com) 

Etiquetas: Publicidade

«(...) Of course any blanket statement is pretty useless today, especially when referencing music. Eighteen-year-olds are wired into the MySpace world; 40-plus Luddites are clueless about downloading; music freaks of any age will go anywhere the music is offered and there are traditionalists who continue to hear music on radio and buy CDs at the big box stores. And that’s an overgeneralization, with the point being that there are 300 million-plus North Americans and any blanket statements are, in my opinion, far too general in 2006.

And then there’s radio. It’s a different experience. The key to radio has been in evolving what comes out of the speakers as much as the technology. In 1970, FM was a superior technology sound-wise, but what made FM happen is the programming.

FM had been around since 1940 but in the 1970s FM attacked the vulnerabilities of AM, which was still paying by the rules of 1956. Same thing now, FM is vulnerable because it’s playing by the rules of 1980. When radio gets in sync with the era, it’s an experience that I believe will always be a significant part of the listening pie.

Years ago, there was similar talk about when eight-track, cassette and later CD players were integrated into cars. That same “radio is dead” talk.

Radio is resilient. It was given its last rites in 1955 when TV became mainstream. The emergence of these technologies certainly creates a challenge, but media ain’t no cakewalk. (...)»

Lee Abrams, «iPods Are Killing Radio!?», RWonline, 22/11/06 

Etiquetas: FM, AM, Satélite, iPod, carro

«The FCC has updated its tally. As of Sept. 30 there were 4,751 AMs, 6,252 commercial FMs and 2,790 educational FMs for a total of 13,793 radio stations. That compares to June 30 totals of 4,744 AMs, 6,238 commercial FMs and 2,760 educational FMs for a total of 13,742 stations. There are 746 LPFMs; there were 721 at last count. The FCC also says there are 4,087 FM translators and boosters. That compares to 4,026 as of June 30.»

fonte: RWOnline, «FCC: 13,742 Total Licensed Radio Stations in U.S.», 22/11/06

«’Année Radio 2005-2006 confirme une nouvelle fois la puissance du média Radio : plus de 8 personnes sur 10 (82,8%) âgées de 13 ans et plus écoutent la Radio, sur un jour moyen de semaine, près de 3 heures (2h54 min).
En dix ans, entre 1995-1996 et 2005-2006, la Radio a gagné plus de 4 millions d’auditeurs âgés de 15 ans et plus. Sur cette période, le nombre d’auditeurs de la Radio, sur un jour moyen de semaine, est ainsi passé de 36 690 000 à 40 796 000.

Les auditeurs les plus fervents de la Radio sont en majorité des hommes, des actifs, et de catégories socioprofessionnelles supérieures»

fonte: «Bilan annuel de la Radio et nouveaux modes d’écoute», 10/11/06, Mediametrie, Communique de presse

a partir do artigo «Changing Its Tune; Broadcast Radio Is Scrambling To Regain Its Groove» do New York Times, Richard Siklos, 15/9/06, traduzido pelo Courrier Internacional, versão portuguesa (outubro06)

- cada vez mais gente abandona as rádios de música para ouvir sites de musica; copiam essas musicas e gravam-nas em CD ou copiam-nas para o iPod;

- a rádio tradicional é ameaçada pelo streaming audio, o podcasting, os leitores de mp3 ou ainda a rádio por satélite,

- «O futuro da rádio parece cada vez mais incerto desde o fim da década de 90, período em que os industriais se atropelavam para comprar estações emissoras. Hoje, as receitas das rádios estão estagnadas e o número de ouvintes em queda. O tempo que as pessoas dedicam à rádio durante a semana caiu 14 por cento nos últimos dez anos. E, de há três anos para cá a cotação das acções das cinco maiores empresas radiofónicas caiu entre 30 e 60 por cento»

- excesso de publicidade; satélite é solução (rádio via satélite tem cerca de 10 milhões de assinantes contra os 230 

Etiquetas: internet, streaming, audio

(em construção) 

Em Portugal,os melhores anos da indústria discográfica musical (1985-1997, no estudo de José Soares Neves, estiveram associados ao fim do duopólio da rádio, [a]o surgimento das ‘rádios livres’ e sua posterior legalização (pág 14), e se a nível mundial também se verificou um crescimento, foi maior em Portugal;

- a industria musical portuguesa, à semelhança do que acontece globalmente, também vive uma situação de oligopólio (em 1997, seis companhias totalizavam 83,5% da facturação total, das quais apenas uma nacional, ainda que a posição das independentes se tenha vindo a reforçar, 159)

- a queda na venda dos singles, em Portugal, começou no início da década de 90 (Neves 103)

Em Portugal consumo de música e audição de rádio confundem-se.  Neves destaca dois inquéritos à população, no âmbito da sociologia (feitos em meados da década de 90), que mostram que a rádio é o meio principal para escuta de música, sobretudo entre os mais jovens (é marginal o número daqueles que ouvem música sem ser através da rádio) (208)

- A rádio desempenha, juntamente com outros factores, a função de gatekeeper (na linha do pensamento de Paul D Lopes ou Ciane, citados por Neves), mas no processo de promoção/difusão das musicas não há apenas um gatekeeper. Neves fala num «processo em diversos patamares» (a decisão sobre a edição e a escolha dos temas; o acesso à promoção pública e a sua distribuição junto do consumidor final). «Destes três momentos-chave depende em grande parte a carreira que um dado título realiza. Com efeito, na actualidade, os principais problemas colocam-se não na fase da produção, mas da circulação, uma vez que, se aquela está relativamente facilitada, esta está crescentemente congestionada. Daí a importância da actividade de promoção e marketing, particularmente junto da rádio. E, deste ponto de vista, as majors possuem as melhores condições para a colocação dos seus produtos devida aos processos de trabalho utilizados e à extensão dos recursos materiais e humanos de que dispõem» (Neves, 142).

- A industria discográfica funciona em oligopólio, o que lhe dá muito mais força para, mais do que negociar, impor (Neves, 40). Mesmo assim há quem fale em «dependência mútua» na relação entre aestações de rádio e as companhias fonográficas, devida a interesses comuns (Neves, 41, citando Malm e Wallis), «uma integração envolvendo um grau crescente de dependência mútua, baseada mais em interesses comuns do que em relações de propriedade (Neves 73). «Dependência mútua porque, como notam os autores [Krister Malm, Roger Wallis, Big Sounds from Small Peoples, Londres, Constable, 1992], as estações emissoras necessitam de mais e mais música gravada para alimentar os seus programas, tal como a indústria necessita destes para publicitar os seus produtos (Neves, 73). Ainda assim, «a dependência mútua atrás referida deverá ser “cruzada» com a estratégia da indústria globalmente considerada [em especial das majors], a qual consiste em procurar vender o máximo de cópias do mínimo de produtos, o que, dada a expansão da rádio aos níveis local e mundial, permite concluir que o aumento do tempo de emissão se fez difundindo a mesma música» (Neves 74) Um exemplo é dado por Steve Chapple e Reebee Garofalo, ao analisarem as rádios de formato «Top40», conhecidas também por CHR: ao reduzirem o leque de músicas transmitidas e apostando insistentemente mais numas do que noutras (o Top 10), «a rádio integrou-se mais especificamente no tecido da indústria da música. Para que os discos tivessem um grande êxito teriam de ser tocados na rádio; e, com as execuções constantemente repetidas no Top 40, o êxito dos discos passou a ser feito à força» (Neves 74). Neves cita Frederic Dannen que escreveu sobre os “promotores independentes”, «cujo trabalho, situado entre os departamentos de promoção das companhias e os responsáveis radiofónicos pelas listas, consistia em conseguir que um dado título nelas entrasse, e aí permanecesse, como forma de conseguir construir um hit. A perspectiva era a de que as pessoas não compram música pop que nunca ouviram, sendo que, por cada single no Top 10, poderia ser vendido um milhão de álbuns» (Neves, 75). É a dependência/necessidade da entrada de um tema na lista do Top40 que leva a que surja o «payola», já conhecido desde os anos 60 nos EUA, data das primeiras investigações «em torno de eventuais pagamentos efectuados a disc jockeys  no sentido de garantirem airplay para determinados temas (…)» (Neves 75). Por outo lado, até que ponto, campanhas de spots na rádio, promovendo artistas que também estarão a ser divulgados em airplay, não é uma forma de payola (ou pelo menos de cimentar boas relações)? Importa no entanto saber se as rádios que decidem o que passam (que escolhem, de uma lista de edições novas) ou se, na verdade, é a indústria que decide o que passa a rádio (através de estratégias de pressão e/ou sedução). Neves cita Baskerville, para quem os directores de programas ou autores das playlists, «aqueles que determinam o que as estações de rádio emitem são provavelmente os mais poderosos indivíduos na indústria musical. Eles são os gatekeepers. Aqueles que eles permitem, podem prosperar. Aqueles a quem são negados direitos de emissão, provavelmente nunca sairão da obscuridade no campo da música popular» (David Baskerville, op. Cit., p.365).  

A conquista de airplay (numero de vezes que uma mesma musica passa numa determinada rádio) faz parte das estrategia de marketing; a antecipação de temas, em single, que inda não estão à venda, é parte dessa mesma estratégia (não é pelas receitas do single, a não ser em casos de grande sucesso) mas pelo airplay conquistado. Outras estratégias: a disponibilização de elementos de merchandising que, por exemplo, vão aparecer nos passatempos radiofónicos ou levar jornalistas ao estrangeiro, conseguindo tempo de antena para as suas reportagens, para ver concertos (entrevistas) de músicos que estão a ser promovidos;  

- A construção de programas com tops é a representação máxima da relação passiva entre industria e rádio ( industria fornece os dados, a rádio ilustra)

- na década de 20, quando a rádio apareceu, a industria manifestou grande desconfiança, na medida em que receava que a audição gratuita levasse à quebra no consumo dos discos; rapidamente a industria apercebeu-se  que os dois media (como lhes chama Neves, 72) se complementavam. Para este autor, «é um dos principais veículos de difusão musical e o principal suporte promocional da indústria» (73).

- A auto-edição, por oposição ao envolvimento/empenho da editora (feito mais oumenos em função das esperanças depositadas nas possibilidades; A auto-edição ganha força com a realidade digital, permitindo focalizar em nichos e potenciando aquilo que sempre foi uma estratégia das editoras, a «identificação entre consumidor e produto

O impacto do segundo choque não se reflecte apenas sobre a rádio e a rádio musical em concreto. A televisão é também vítima disso e- por causa das audiências medidas minuto a minuto – de uma forma mais dramática.

O fim do programa «Top of the Pops», a 30 de Julho de 2006, é disso um bom exemplo: transmitido ininterruptamente há 42 anos na BBC2 (1 de Janeiro de 1964, com Rolling Stones e Beatles), acabou devido às fracas audiências (de uma audiência mundial de 15 milhões de pessoas, na década de 70, pouco mais de um milhão assistiam nos últimos tempos ao programa (Madonna, Robie Williams e Rolling Stones)

A indústria musical parece rendida aos benefícios que a digitalização em curso irá provocar. Os Digital Music Awards (5ª edição em 2006) ainda estão no início, mas serão cada vez mais importante à medida que mais artistas usem a Internet ou os telemóveis para se promoverem, em vez da rádio ou da tv. Os prémios distinguem:

- as páginas oficiais dos músicos;

- as páginas de fãs e blogues;

- inovações na rede, como utilização do telemóvel ou podcasts ou lojas digitais de venda;

Do Observatoire de la radio 2004-2005, alguns dados interessantes sobre ascprincipais rádios musicais francesas:

A Nostalgie tem a play list mais extensa, com 585 temas; a Europe 2, a menor, com 199 canções. Outras rádios como a RTL2 (com cerca de 350) ou a funradio ou a NRJ  situam-se à volta dos 250 temas.

http://www.ipfrance.fr/doc/112276.pdf#search=%22observatoire%20de%20la%20radio%20%22

Citações de um artigo do New York Times:

«The radio industry keeps losing people like Danny C. Costa, a senior at Boston University who grew up listening to radio in New York and New Jersey. For the last few years, Mr. Costa has tuned out radio in favor of Web sites where he can get access to downloads or videos he heard about from friends. He prefers these to the drumbeat of the Top 40. He burns his favorite songs onto CD’s or copies them onto his iPod. “I just sort of stopped listening to radio, because I had access to all this music online,” Mr. Costa said. While more than 9 out of 10 Americans still listen to traditional radio each week, they are listening less. And the industry is having to confront many challenges like those that have enticed Mr. Costa, including streaming audio, podcasting, iPods and Howard Stern on satellite radio».

« The amount of time people tune into radio over the course of a week has fallen by 14 percent over the last decade, according to Arbitron ratings.   

(o título traduz a notícia da Radio INk; a mim parece-me que 27 por cento de pessoas a dizer que ouvem menos é relevante) 

«Despite the availability of various new media to receive music and news, only a little more than one in four Americans (27 percent) say they are now listening to the radio less than they did five years ago. According to a survey commissioned by American Media Services, about half (51 percent) said their radio listening hasn’t changed during the past five years, and 21 percent said they are now listening more.
When asked to look ahead five years, only 11 percent said they expect to be listening to the radio less than they do now. Nearly three out of four (74 percent) said they expect to listen about the same, and 13 percent said they expect to listen more.
“Radio plays a vital role in American life. Reports of radio’s death seem greatly exaggerated,” said Ed Seeger, president and chief executive officer of American Media Services, which commissioned the survey.
The survey found that Americans rate radio as their primary source to learn about new music. When asked which ways they learn about new music, 63 percent said by listening to the radio. In comparison, 43 percent said it can be through talking with friends, 41 percent cited watching television, 24 percent cited reviews in newspapers or magazines, and 16 percent cited the Internet»

fonte: Radio Ink, 14/9/06, Radio Listening Remains Strong

«listeners have tastes, radio has genres», diz Mark Ramsey

«Internet and satellite radio have capitalized on broadcast radio's inability to give listeners what they truly seem to want - variety, voices of knowledge and authority, some sense of excitement, and the ability to hear what they want, whenever they want. Radio, as we know it, has been reborn. "The new radio formats are all about choice," says Spin magazine Executive Editor Doug Brod. "In a sense, this very choice may eventually bring about the end of the album as we know it. No longer do listeners have to buy entire albums when they can just pick and choose particular songs to download. This very efficiency is already having a tremendous impact on the art of the album-making. Artists can now release only a few songs at a time." Though its methods of delivery are changing, radio has once again become a key player, not just in shaping the way that we hear music, but in shaping the way that it is being made. If that's not a revolution, then it's certainly the seed of one.»

fonte: The Buffalo News, «The REBIRTH of RADIO», By JEFF MIERS, 7/23/2006

«Radio has a bright future! Really?

Having spent a few decades working in radio when its future was bright, when a programmer concentrated on one station, when competition was strong between all stations in any market, when jocks were given the leeway to communicate with their audience, and when stations had a local news staff - I'll report that things aren't looking so bright now.»

diz o eidtor do Audiographics, 13/7/06, http://www.audiographics.com/agd/071306-1.htm

«The BBC in a statement said that "The decision to bring the show to an end after 42 years has not been taken lightly and over the past few years every effort has been made to maintain the quality and distinctiveness of the show".

"Over recent years the show has faced ever increasing competition from multi-media and niche musical outlets which enable viewers to consume music of their choice any time night or day in a way that Top of the Pops simply cannot deliver in its current weekly format."»

fonte: «BBC axe Top of the Pops following rise of digital downloads», Pocket-Lint, Stuart Miles, 20/6/06

O editor do site Audiographics esteve a ouvir um dos canais HD2 dos EUA e saiu desiludido, uma vez que é apenas um computador pré-programado e muitos jingles a promover a estação:

«Since Saturday, 6/17, I've been streaming WSMJ-HD2 through its online link. That it is solid music won't be challenged here. Though I will challenge calling it "radio."

Here's what I've uncovered about Clear Channel's WSMJ-HD2. It has just 18 liners positioned [frases promocionais] between every other song, except at the top and bottom of the hour when, sometimes, you'll hear three songs in a row. These are the positioning statements they use:

The artists that gave birth to the cool - played 24/7 on Jazzville, 104.3 HD2
Jazz - America's own music, Jazzville, 104.3 HD2
When you hear music, after it's over, it's gone, you can never capture
it again - Jazzville 104.3 HD2 (...)

When the above play through, they repeat. That's enough said about the programming of this new, exciting, HD2 radio station.

You decide if this is "radio," or some variation of jukebox music. Then, ask why a person would spend money to buy a new receiver to listen to what's offered. Not being a jazz aficionado, I won't comment on the music other than to say the playlist was repeated. But, so what? Songs have to repeat, eventually» (http://www.audiographics.com/agd/061906-1.htm)

Mark Ramsey desenvolve, sem chegar a uma conclusão:

«It's an interesting point, and it's central to our HD radio plans (not to mention the plans for Internet radio and, dare I say it, good old-fashioned terrestrial radio).

When you take out (or never put in) the personality, when you lack the voices that connect us to the music and each other, when there is no promotion, no news, no traffic, no weather, no contesting, no feeling that what you're hearing is in any sense "live" or, for that matter even "living,"...

...is that really "radio"?

Is that what we want "radio" to be?

Is that what the audience comes to us for?» (http://www.hear2.com/2006/06/what_is_radio_a.html)

(via NetFM)

Hear2.0 EVP Harve Alan said, "Given that some media prognosticators claim radio is dead or dying, we were pleasantly surprised at just how strong radio is; even with the youngest age groups." He added, "With only one format falling below 70% satisfaction and despite ongoing challenges from new media the American public still loves their terrestrial radio.  This research illustrates the power of radio to entertain, inform, and satisfy."»

fonte: «Study: Radio Listeners Satisfied», FMQB, 7/6/06

A canadiana CBC está a produzir uma série de programas sobre o fim dos meios tradicionais.

«O fim da rádio» está aqui (o programa pode ser visto on line - já não digo o mesmo quanto a ouvir...)

Tópicos para o guião do programa:

Três dos conselhos que o presidente da NAB dá á industria radiofónica (e televisiva) para reagir à «concorrência»:

... diz o presidente da NAB, National Association of Broadcasters: «To our competitors I say, ‘We will beat you,” he said during the Monday morning address delivered from the Las Vegas Hilton. “Radio’s history is one of meeting new competition head on and coming out on top. That hasn’t changed. All we seek is a level playing field.”

(fia-te na virgem, neste caso na história... e não corras - comentário meu!) 

fonte: «David Rehr Warns Radio’s Competitors: ‘We Will Beat You’», Radio Ink, 26/4/06

(directamente da terra dos estudos, mais um...; feito com mil entrevistas no universo da população dos EUA)

«Survey: Radio is Important to Americans
Charleston, SC - Apr 19, 2006 - Americans rate the importance and relevance of local commercial radio very highly, despite the entry of high-technology competition, a national survey commissioned by American Media Services shows. The survey found that 78 percent said radio is important in their everyday lives, and 91 percent said radio is important in American life in general. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) said they listen to radio at least once a day. The telephone survey of 1,004 American adults was conducted April 13 to 15, 2006, by Omnitel. The survey is considered accurate within plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The new findings complement those in AMS’ initial survey in January: 64 percent said they were listening to radio as much as, or more than, they were five years ago. In the AMS survey, 57 percent of men and 49 percent of women said they listen to radio at least daily. The availability of music, news and reports on weather and traffic continues to be the most often cited reasons for listening to the radio, with 98 percent of respondents saying they listen to radio for one of those features.

Additional statistics:

fonte: http://beradio.com/currents/radio_currents_041706/index.html#ams

«A pesar de las aciagas predicciones de la segunda mitad de los años noventa, la radio está de regreso y, en muchas maneras, mas fuerte que nunca. Las ganancias están aumentando y la audiencia es constante. A medida que avanza un nuevo siglo vemos también como las fortalezas tradicionales de la radio siguen realzando el atractivo del medio. Ahora también es posible acceder, por medio de un teléfono celular, a estaciones de radio por Internet. Lo que hace de la radio parte esencial de esta época es su capacidad para llegar hasta nosotros mientras hacemos otra cosa. Podemos escucharla en el trabajo, en el automóvil o mientras hacemos ejercicio»

(Hausman, Benoit e O'Donnell, 2001: 351) 

«During a Tuesday morning conference call with Wall Street analysts, Emmis CEO Jeff Smulyan addressed the question, “Is radio a lost cause? Standing up for the radio business, Smulyan replied, “It's not a lost cause, because we reach almost every American. If you look at leading forms of media, they are incredibly fragmented, and narrow. We reach almost every American, almost every day, where they live. We're relevant to them. They use us as companions. They use us as a source of entertainment. They rely on us for information, especially in critical times. For some reason, this is a business which has the perception that it's over. It's not over. It's a business that's been able to produce 45 cents on the dollar and still does. It's not over, but it's struggling."

He continued, "What I've seen over the thirty some years I've been in this business is that every industry has its ups and downs, but the basic relevance of this industry has not diminished. It is a fragmented world. It is a world where people have lots more choices. But we can't find another business which reaches people where they live, and which has such universal distribution, and which we think has the ability to be leveraged into some new areas."(...)»

fonte: «Smulyan On Radio: “It's Not Over”», Radio Ink, 19/4/06 

“The proliferation of digital broadcast platforms such as Internet radio, satellite radio, HD and podcasting is a testament to the popularity of radio programming,” the research company stated in announcing the release of “The Infinite Dial: Radio’s Digital Platforms.”

Edison Media’s Larry Rosin said, “Our research shows that regardless of the platform consumers see all these options as merely being new forms of ‘radio.’”

The phone survey involved approximately 1,900 people»

fonte: «Study Sees New Media as ‘Expansion of Radio Market’´, RWonline, 13/4/06

O estudo: http://www.arbitron.com/downloads/digital_radio_study.pdf

Outras conclusões:

• Seventy-seven percent of Americans say they expect to listen to AM/FM radio as much as they do now despite increasing advancements in technology.
• Online radio reaches nearly one in five (19 percent) persons per week age 18-34 and 15 percent of persons 25-54.
• Twenty-seven percent of satellite radio subscribers live in households with an annual income of more than 0,000, nearly double the percentage of all households (14 percent).
• Podcasting attracts a youthful audience: one out of five who have ever listened to an audio podcast are 12-17 years old, and more than half (53 percent) are under the age of 35.
• More than one-third of Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat” interested in HD Radio.

Um estudo da Bridge Ratings sobre a erosão dos ouvintes da rádio convencional. Conclusões:

«Bridge Ratings reports that audience erosion from terrestrial radio is due to generally less time spent with AM/FM radio and more time spent with a variety of digital media. This includes MP3 players and iPods, Internet radio, satellite radio and CDs. 

1. Terrestrial audience erosion to alternative audio entertainment continues to occur in young demographics.

2. Podcasting is beginning to siphon listening.

3. MP3 device usage can consume as much as 80% of a radio user's audio entertainment during initial ownership weeks and months. This number tends to be generally lower among 30+ women and 35+ men.

4. MP3 player fatigue is slowing overall as the market continues to expand due to consumer interest in these devices. Fatigue with MP3 players remains high among those consumers who have owned the devices longer than 6-8 months.

5. Competition for traditional radio time-spent-listening is more severe. Time spent listening to terrestrial radio is fighting for its share of time with a multitude of digital devices. Even television has regained viewership based on this quarter's data. The most often given reason for this by our sample: better programming and new shows. Meanwhile, music-specific radio stations are vying for the attention of their constituencies as MP3 players continue to be more pervasive than ever (75 million sold). Podcasting is beginning to show evidence of cannibalizing radio's time-spent-listening.

6. Satellite radio also suffers from attrition! For the first time, we are seeing satellite radio consumers who have been subscribers for longer than 6 months are actually spending less time than they were six months ago with their satellite service of choice. According to our panel, during the second quarter of 2005 average time spent listening to satellite radio was 16 hours per week. During this most recent study during the period of January 1 through March 31, 2006, weekly TSL for satellite radio among subscribers of 6 months or longer was down to 12.6 weekly hours»

Sobre o estudo:

«This study, which has been tracking such behavior since January, 2004, once again reveals behaviors assumed to be taking place.
After a recovering Quarter 4 of 2005 for terrestrial radio where positive signs that terrestrial radio was experiencing positive Time Spent Listening and Weekly cume audience tune-in, the first quarter of 2006 showed just the opposite in overall listener behavior.  AM/FM radio listening among 18-34 year olds was significantly off fourth quarter 2005's pace as its increase in weekly quarter hours to "other media" than radio jumped from 50 to 60 quarter hours affecting the trend for both 12-24 and 25-49 year old metrics»

fonte: «Bridge Study: "Where Are My Listeners Going?"», Radio Ink, 7/4/06. O texto original aqui.

«OTTAWA (CP) - Music via the Internet, satellite, IPods and a new generation of cellphones is taking its toll on old-fashioned commercial radio, and the industry wants federal broadcast regulators to help level the playing field.  In a submission to the CRTC, the Canadian Association of Broadcasters warns that "a new generation of unregulated competition is upon us." That, plus huge increases in music copyright payments in recent years, means the outlook for private radio is uncertain.  "This does not mean that more regulation is required, but rather more effective regulation needs to be designed," says Glenn O'Farrell, president of the CAB which represents more than 400 radio stations across the country. (...) The CAB projects a loss of listeners over the next decade to new audio technologies, warning the revenue losses could be as much as million by 2010, and even worse beyond that.» (fonte: Faced with new media competition, private radio makes proposals to CRTC, Canoe Money, 2006-03-16 13:50:00)

Uma das características do segundo choque é que ele parece ter chegado sem aviso; pelo menos é o que se pode concluir de um conjunto de declarações feitas na década de 90 dando conta da satisfação e da saúde do meio. Estariam distraídos? Ou apenas adormecidos todos aqueles que, até esse altura, se contentavam em glorificar a sobrevivência da rádio? Um exemplo:

«Quando a televisão tornou-se popular, na década de 1950, surgiram previsões anunciando a morte do rádio. Passados mais de quarenta anos, o rádio é, hoje, mais empolgante e diversificado do que antes. A rádio local está crescendo muito rapidamente em diversas áreas do Reino Unido, que podem agora ter a oportunidade de desfrutar de uma ampla escolha de estilos e formatos radiofônicos. E milhões de pessoas podem buscar um conjunto de notícias de seu interesse através do rádio» (Chantler, Paul e Harris, Sim, Radiojornalismo, Summus, São Paulo, 1998, pág 15).

Excerto da intervenção de Bill Kennard (presidente da FCC) no congresso dos EUA sobre o futuro da rádio:

«The radio industry is robust and thriving and the prospects for future growth are excelent. Revenues in 1997 were over billion and radio stocks have seen record growth. Radio continues to connect people to their communities, perhaps more than any other medium. Just as the advent of cable television, direct broadcast salellites, and satellite radio did not adversely affect the success of radio, so is the fact that broadband Internet audio distribution will not kill free over-the-air radio broadcasting either. Radio remains unique as a local communications service, one that is the lifeblood of local information in all our communities and in our culture. To this day, radio stations provide local communities with vital local news and information -weather and traffic reports, agricultural forecasts, and school closings. Radio will continue to play a vital  and profitable role in our nation's communities» (McCoy, 1999: 22/23).

«(...) the search for great radio talent around the country slowed. The majority of radio stations became stripped of personality - and personalities. The human touch was gone. In its place was the safe, predictable sound of radio-by-the-numbers. Many operators embraced this trend because it was cost-efficient. It offered the option of not paying big money for some zany morning man or wild night jock, because the research indicated that all they had to do was play the best-testing records and shut the air talent up" (McCoy, 1999:2).

«Buzz Bennett: Everybody today is surviving on research. People aren’t using their instincts. There’s no instinctual movement; it’s all rational movement, which is okay in a noncreative industry, but in radio, it takes people who want to drive themselves to create something new» (McCoy, 1999: 89) 

Diz este artigo da Red Herring («Digital Radio Gets Fuzzy», March 2, 2006):

«As radio providers like XM and Sirius battle for control of car dashboards, new digital radio standards are likely to increase competition and confuse consumers, a study released Thursday said. North Americans will soon have the choice among XM, Sirius, and HD Radio receivers, said Frank Viquez, director of transportation research at ABI Research, which conducted the study. What’s more, they will also soon be offered multimedia broadcasting services like Qualcomm's MediaFLO service and Crown Castle’s Modeo digital video broadcasting on handsets service.»

(consequência pós-segundo choque...)

«Al entrar en el nuevo milenio, la radiodifusión está generando más beneficios e ingresos que en cualquier otra época de su historia, aunque tal vez sus días estén contados. Pero quisiera aclarar esta aseveración. La programación transmitida por la radio seguirá existiendo, por lo menos en un futuro predecible, aunque el método o la manera principal de transmitida hasta sus oyentes cambiará debido a la banda ancha, a la fibra óptica y a las tecnologías por satél¡te. El propio Internet está revolucionando el mundo de la comunicación, lo que también incluye a la radio» (Michael C. Keith in Martinéz-Costa, 2001: 95)

"Sin embargo el momento radiofónico actual es complejo como pocos en la historia del medio y requiere una abnegada e ingeniosa atención. Y si la circunstancia merece esmero, reflexión y vigilancia es porque la situación es mucho más peligrosa que la generada por la llegada de la televisión. Posiblemente este sea el conflicto más complejo de los vividos por la radio hasta el momento presente porque afecta a su propia raíz. A la radio y - no se olvide-, a los demás medios de comunicación" (Faus Belau in Martinéz-Costa, ed, 2001: 16)

dados importantes:

«According to a study conducted by Research Director, Inc., time spent listening to radio in the top 12 markets averaged nineteen hours and fifty-five minutes. This represents a 3.4% decline in the past three years.

Research Director President Charlie Sislen said of the study, “Much has changed with people’s entertainment choices. Three years ago people did not have access to iPods, MP3 players, or satellite radio. While we never like to see a decline, I feel that this minor drop over three years shows the true strength of radio.” » (Research Director Reports: Radio TSL Down In Past Three Years, Radio Ink, 14/2/06)

- Disponibilização de formas alternativas de consumo de rádio (o consumo de rádio no Reino Unido a partir das novas tecnologias aumentou 22% em 2004);

- Aumento do consumo de rádio no exterior das residências e dos carros;

- Atracção e fidelização dos consumidores mais jovens;

Em suma, o futuro da rádio afigura-se bem mais positivo do que há 4 anos atrás porque as tecnologias digitais criaram novas oportunidades de mercado e diversificaram a oferta das mesmas.»

("O investimento publicitário global por suporte de comunicação", Obercom, (E.P) 10-02-2006)

"The attack is arriving in the form of satellite radio and its portable receivers, online niche and genre "broadcasts" from music services (MSN, Real, Launch), and even homegrown podcasts" ("Everything kills the radio star", PC Mag, 14/9/05, por Lance Ulanoff)

"La radio se vio forzada a achicar sus estudios, a callal’ sus orquestas, a despedir sus compañías teatrales. Vio apagarse su época de oro; adiós radioteatro, adiós ’mamarrachito mío’, adiós suspenso. Todo quedó reducido a música y noticias. Y un nuevo vestuario: objetividad, seriedad, prisa. Porque dentro del botín resignó su bien más preciado: la imaginación. Olvidando que el hombre tuvo la literatura, y aún antes los juegos y las plantas mágicas, para tener pantallas propias en la cabeza; nadie comenzó a soñar con los rayos catódicos" (Alejandro Luna, "La gran pantalla a punto de enmudecer?", revista Códigos, nº 2, General Roca, 1989, apud Haye, 1995: 23)

«Radio has been declared dead many times, especially with the rise of the internet. When streaming audio became practical in the late 90s it was often declared that every person with a ‘net connection would have her own station. The birth of satellite radio, with hundreds of channels of narrowcasted nationwide channels, brought more exclamations. In the last eighteen months podcasting has been the latest rhetorical nail in radio’s coffin, joining ‘net radio’s promise of “every person a broadcaster” with the multi-channel appeal of satellite radio. But radio isn’t dead. Rather, it’s strangely revitalized. The death of radio is really the death of one dominant mode of radio — commercial music radio.»

«Podcasting and the revitalization of radio», Mediageek, Wed 4 Jan 2006

Um estudo acabado de divulgar diz que a erosão das sondagens de rádio norte-americana (convencional) detectada no ano passado estará a ser invertida:

"The Center for Media Research reports that according to initial results from a continuing Audience Attrition project by Bridge Ratings & Research, audience erosion from terrestrial radio – due to less time spent with AM/FM radio and more time spent with a variety of digital media, including MP3 players, iPods, Internet radio, and satellite radio – has returned somewhat in the 4th quarter of 2005.

The report finds that AM/FM radio listening is returning to former high-water marks as a result of both the medium’s lower commercial load policies and a growing segment of MP3 users who after some time immersed in the new technology, become fatigued and return to terrestrial radio among other sources of audio entertainment.

Other updated findings include:

-- Terrestrial audience erosion to alternative audio entertainment continues to occur in young demographics though at a slower rate than seen previously in 2005

-- Erosion rate halted for the time being among the 25+ age group.

-- MP3 device usage can consume as much as 80% of a radio user’s audio entertainment during initial ownership weeks and months. This number tends to be generally lower among 30+ women and 35+ men

-- Time spent with MP3 players has increased among 12-24 year old males faster than with females as 2005 progresses as time spent with Internet radio has slowed

-- Where a 15% decrease in terrestrial radio use by 12-24 year olds was reported for Q3 2005 Vs Q3 2004, by Q4 2005 use had increased by two quarter hours per week per person resulting in only a 4% increase when compared with Q4 2004

-- Listening to traditional radio by Adults 25-49 has risen from 65 quarter hours a week (Q4 2004) to 67 "

fonte: "Turnaround Seen In Terrestrial Radio"

A crise que a rádio vive nos últimos anos também é resultado da falta de evolução tecnológica. A rádio, que sempre viveu associada aos desenvolvimentos tecnológicos, às pequenas grandes invenções que a fizeram sobreviver noutras décadas, não conhece desde 1960, data em que o FM estéreo foi testado pela primeira vez (na KDKA-FM de Pittsburgh), qualquer inovação significativa. São quase 40 anos de estagnação no que diz respeito à tecnologia intrínseca que serve a difusão hertziana (porque a internet é outro pressuposto).

Uma consulta à lista "Broadcast History Timeline" mostra isso mesmo...

A rádio via satélite surge como oportunidade de negócio mas também como resposta à estagnação manifestada pela rádio hertziana. Alguns excertos do artigo Can Digital Kill the Radio Star? da Wired (2000-07-08).

"Traditional radio isn't doing the job in servicing customers," said William Kidd, satellite analyst at investment firm C.E. Unterberg, Towbin. Kidd said 80 percent of all listening today in the car is radio, and that the industry -- which hasn't seen substantial change since FM was invented more than 60 years ago -- is ripe for innovation. "It's hard to imagine that the status quo will be preserved," Kidd said.(...)

The broadcasters believe that customers will leap at the chance to pay for quality radio for the same reason cable TV has proven a success: better variety and fewer commercials. Radio listeners frustrated by the exclusionary and repetitive practices of the FM stations that have driven listeners to online services will identify with their specialty channels.

Former DJ Tom Versen, Sirius's director of production and creative services, said traditional radio only plays one-third of the music released each year. He said ad-supported radio has stagnated towards repeating old standards instead of taking chances on new content. "If I hear 'Dust in the Wind' one more time, I'm going to run my car off the road," Versen said. "

Um excerto deste artigo "Free Radio Biz Tunes Out Sat Gains", Dec. 22, 2005, By Alex Woodson and Georg Szalai, The Hollywood Reporter
 

"Smulyan also invoked an old rule in the media industry that says newer forms of media rarely fully replace older ones. "The iPod of today was the CD five years ago and the cassette 15 years ago and the A-track 20 years ago and the citizen’s band radio 30 years ago," he said. "The reality is people have fragmentation, but we haven’t seen anything replace this particular radio experience."

Dickey also suggested that despite good marketing, satellite radio has little to differentiate itself from terrestrial radio. "We’re in the content business, and the only real content that they have is Howard Stern," he said. "They don’t have any real exclusive content."

Despite all the defense talk, Smulyan did agree that traditional radio players have room to improve performance in various areas. They particularly must focus more on providing compelling content, he argued. "We have done some things, as an industry, that have not been productive," he said. "I don’t think we’ve marketed the industry too well. I think our product’s been more stale. ... I think that we’ve over-researched ourselves."

O comentário de harry Helms: "Terrestrial radio executives are increasingly acting like American auto executives in the 1970s (and in the 1980s, 1990s, and still today, come to think of it): their industry problems are due to  flawed customer perceptions, negative press coverage, unfavorable government regulations, or anything/everything ad infinitum except the possibility their product isn't what customers want. "

"As I think we can all agree, commercial broadcast radio in the United States, for the most part, sucks. AM radio has been relegated to talk and FM stations play music — of sorts. Stations are Xerox copies of similar stations, playing the same songs over and over again", diz Gary Krakow, colunista da MSNBC, neste texto "New radio formats sacrifice sound qualitity; End of radio? Banish bad radio instead!" (Updated: 5:41 p.m. ET March 17, 2005)

Da notícia da Reuters "Tecnologias causam interferência no futuro do rádio" (5 de dezembro de 2005, 15h59) três razões que mostram que "O setor de rádio pode perder importância no mercado de mídia, dadas as ameaças que novas tecnologias acarretam para os seus negócios, disseram executivos de publicidade durante a Reuters Media and Advertising Summit".

1) As rádios via satélite, players digitais de música (iPod e outros) e a Internet estão lentamente desgastando o domínio das rádios sobre o entretenimento e publicidade locais. E estão a dar aos ouvintes a possibilidade de ouvirem o que querem quando querem.

2)  Os dois serviços de rádio via satélite (XM Satellite Radio Holdings e a Sirius Satellite Radio) estão a oferecer mais canais, a maioria dos quais sem publicidade, por uma taxa mensal de assinatura.

3) A comercialização excessiva. O crescimento de receita das rádios vem se desacelerando desde 2003, de acordo com o Radio Advertising Bureau.  Além disso, os anúncios para rádio também se tornaram menos memoráveis e criativos, disseram os executivos

CONCLUSÃO: "O rádio enfrenta uma tempestade de ameaças tecnológicas", disse David Verklin, presidente-executivo da agência de compra de mídia Carat Americas. "É preciso que o setor se reinvente."

(obrigado Edgard)

PS - o original da notícia (completa) está aqui: http://today.reuters.com/summit/summitarticle.aspx?type=summitNews&summit=MediaSummit05&storyid=2005-12-02T202107Z_01_FLE268238_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-SUMMIT-RADIO.xml&archived=true

A rádio actual também se pôs a jeito para ser confrontada com uma crise grave, ao ficar demasiado dependente da música, o que provocou, no dizer de Andrew Crisell, um “impoverishment of the medium” (Crisell, 1994: 65)  

Are radio group executives underestimating the influence - or the threat - of other digital media, including satellite radio, iPods and wireless broadband technologies?
I'll give you a mixed answer. Radio has faced many challenges before, from television, 8-tracks, CDs, cell phones and even FM replacing AM. Each time, radio has adapted, changed and thrived. This is a great business; the margins and the cash flow this industry generates aren't seen very often in the business world - at least, not outside something like Tony Soprano's business. On the other hand, you'd have to be living under a rock to not believe that these new media somehow are going to change the way we do business. It is not just satellite radio; it's iPods, it's MP3s, it's the Internet, it's gaming and the whole proliferation and fragmentation of media.

(entrevista a Robert Struble, president, CEO and chairman of the iBiquity Corporation, iBiquity's Robert Struble: If You Aren't Thinking Digital, You're Smokin' Dope (04/11/05), by Reed Bunzel)

Por outras palavras, a rádio foi evoluindo, ao longo de décadas, para um ponto em que quase obrigou os ouvintes a procurar alternativas, nomeadamente de música. A oferta era tão reduzida e repetitiva e os ouvintes queriam mais:

Corey Deitz, "Maybe Commercial Radio Didn't Know JACK All These Years", Jul 20 2005:

"Some stations had libraries of 130, 140, maybe 200 songs. Imagine that: out of all the music created over the years, it was all strained down to the safe stuff, the songs that “tested” best. These were the only songs anyone liked. Yep! Researchers and consultants were quite sure. After all, they were tested! So stations played a select amount of songs – often – to the increasing dismay of listeners who inevitably heard those same songs on similarly formatted stations with similar names from city to city. There was no escaping it.

Listeners began to wonder if there was a better way for them to obtain variety in their music. This problem was partly solved through the advent of the first portable cassette player in 1964 by the Norelco Company which begot the 8-track player in 1966 from Motorola which begot the Walkman in 1979 from Sony which begot CDs and portable CD players in 1982 from Phillips. "

Outro excerto:

"Well, I think it’s obvious who was right all along: The listeners.

They just couldn’t prove it until technology gave them iPods and other mp3 players so they could finally program their own portable stations and turn off the ones that refused to play the variety they really wanted to hear."

A rádio que sai da herança televisiva é marcada por diversos factores. Merayo Pérez (pág. 315) distingue cinco, como preparação para o segundo choque:

“1) Las consecuencias de la intervención arbitraria de las Administraciones Públicas 2) La ruptura en el equilibrio de las estructuras de propiedad a favor de las emisoras públicas que, sin embargo, no tienen semejante predominio en cuanto al número de sus oyentes 3) La crisis por la que atraviesa la OM 4) La obsolescencia tecnológica de las emisoras y las deficientes estructuras empresariales y de gestión 5) La competencia de las nuevas ofertas televisuales”.  

Quando já se fala que os downloads (e a música digital, de uma forma geral) vão acabar com a rádio de música.

Em Londres, dia 24 de Novembro, o assunto vai ser amplamente discutido (tirei do programa oficial):

"TECHNOLOGY KILLED THE RADIO FORMAT...?

Corey Deitz: "It’s tough times for AM and FM radio. Both are under increased pressure by competition that didn’t exist just 10 years ago: Satellite Radio, Webcasting, Podcasting, iPods and mp3 players, audio content on cell phones, and more.
There is no one in high management in the traditional (terrestrial) Radio business - who at least privately - wouldn’t concede that there is worry about the future."
O texto todo aqui.

Algumas sugestões do autor:
"We are what people perceive us to be.
We need to be more than a “1 CD-a-day giveaway with all the winners going into a drawing for a dollars gift certificate.”
We need to be more than radio stations which buy billboards only when ratings drop and we feel threatened.
We need to be radio stations that give away prizes our listeners care about and not just products our sponsors give us.
We need to be radio stations that give away dreams, not just prizes."